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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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MKX pulled the trigger....

 

WIZ066-071-072-310500-
/O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0002.150201T0600Z-150202T0900Z/
MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...KENOSHA
249 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.


* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR MUCH LESS AT
TIMES.

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Why are you still posting? You said this was a whiff. 

 

Maybe i over exaggerated a bit,  but I'm still not sold into the idea yet. I'll give it till tomorrow afternoon before i make any conclusions. I think i let my judgements and emotions get to me sometimes. 

 

18z GFS will be interesting to say the least. 

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JUICE!  :snowing:

 

All celebration and juice comments aside, still have 24hrs for some minor tweaking to take place. But, this one will likely be the first major storm to squarely hit the subform this year. Good hit for Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana & Ohio, and SE Michigan that appears will produce multiple 8"+ reports across the area. Winds will be kicking up into the 15-20mph range Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, which should cause some heavy drifting/whiteout conditions in areas as well. Winter Storm Watches posted from Central Iowa all the way into eastern Ohio. If I had to make a call, I'd say the central core will go under Warnings (NE IL, a good chunk of Nrn IN and OH, plus SE MI), while the fringes get advisories. We shall see though...

 

*readies the snow blower and assorted shovels*

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From Gilbert at NIU.

 

Current thinking is that models are overdoing precipitation amounts except for
the GFS. There is concern that dry northeast winds will evaporate at least a
few inches of the snow before it hits the ground.
As a result, there is some
concern that for Rockford, in a "worst case" scenario, they could only wind up
with a few inches of snow. But, the problem is that the models continue to
track northward with every single run, starting with the run early yesterday
evening. As a result, I do not want to downplay this event for our northern
campuses, and yet, I do think evaporation could hurt the amounts we all get
unless the system tracks farther north.

 

 

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RC on the update for LOT

 

 


..WINTER STORM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY    HEADLINES: HAVE CONTINUED WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA  SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PART OF  THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM IS TIED TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF  NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THIS  MORNING THAT WAS ONLY PARTIALLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.  THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER  STORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET (80%+) IN TOTAL AMOUNTS  TO ISSUE A WARNING.    WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION PRIMARILY MODERATE SNOW  EVENT. HOWEVER...IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE  HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE AND  MIDLEVEL LOWS THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA. ENERGY FROM SOUTHWEST  CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT AND INTERACT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN WAVE  DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS  WILL RESULT IN INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN  ADVANCE OF AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WILL  OOZE SOUTHWARD BEHIND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM STRONG ARCTIC  HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.    LONG PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOWS STARTING MAINLY SATURDAY  EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR  SOUTHWEST CWA AS TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. BOUNDARY LAYER  CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...BUT MAX WET BULB  TEMPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY RA/SN MIX THAT  OCCURS SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...BUT WITH LOWER RATIOS  CLOSER TO 10:1. CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE IF SYSTEM AND 850 MB LOW  TRACK CONTINUES NORTHWARD SHIFT ON GUIDANCE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN  CWA MAY FLIRT WITH MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES LATER INTO SATURDAY  EVENING.    SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST  NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING  OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE (1/2"  TO 1"/HR)...STRENGTHENING 700 MB FGEN LAYING OUT ROUGHLY ALONG  I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD RESULT  IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY RATES (1-2"/HR). AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM  NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE  DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS  WILL LINGER INTO LATE SUNDAY...KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW  GOING. IN ADDITION...850 MB LOW TRACK IS PROGGED TO TAKE NEARLY  IDEAL TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE CWA FROM CENTRAL IL INTO  CENTRAL INDIANA. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SNOW WILL TAPER  OFF FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS AND  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED  TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT TRANSITIONING TO TRUE LAKE EFFECT  SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG OF  LAKE INDUCED CAPE. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT  MARGINAL...LIFT WILL BE THROUGH DGZ AND ALSO HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE  IS INDICATING VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING. HAVE BUMPED UP  POPS TO LIKELY INTO NE IL AND EXTREME NW INDIANA...BUT CONFIDENCE  IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ADDED BY LAKE EFFECT INTO  EARLY MONDAY.    DESPITE LONG DURATION PRIMARILY MODERATE SNOW...HAZARD POSED BY  THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO BE MAGNIFIED BY STRENGTHENING PRESSURE  GRADIENT SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TRACK OF LOW FOLLOWED  BY ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN  STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE RISES. IF  SOME OF THE STRONGER SURFACE LOW SOLUTIONS ON GUIDANCE COME TO  FRUITION...THIS WILL BE EVEN MORESO THE CASE. DURING THIS  TIMEFRAME...SNOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY FLUFFY...SO BLOWING SNOW DUE  TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH COULD COMBINE WITH FALLING  SNOW TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OPEN AREAS. ON THE  IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT...WIND GUSTS FROM THE FRICTIONLESS LAKE COULD  EVEN TOUCH 40 MPH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR BLIZZARD  CONDITIONS THERE. CONVERGENT LAKE BAND COULD ALSO RESULT IN EVEN  SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON THE LAKEFRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED  VISIBILITY GOING WHILE WINDS DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. AS  A FINAL ADDITIONAL NOTE ON THE LAKEFRONT...INCREASING CONCERN FOR  AT LEAST MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING IN NE IL BY SUNDAY EVENING DUE  TO WAVES BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT. HAVE NOT ISSUED A LAKESHORE  FLOOD WATCH...BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY.    OVERALL...CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GREATER THAN 8  INCH SNOW AMOUNTS IN 24 HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE  FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO FORRESTON IL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN  EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALONG/SOUTH  OF INTERSTATE 88. NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD  METRO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES...BUT  BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL  IMPACTS EVEN IF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS IS  NOT MET.    RC  
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Rapid developments today! This thread really took off. haha.

 

Like the snowfall map issued and call by LOT also. Though it's likely the NAM may be a bit wet, still liking the chance of reaching 8 or 9". 

I can't tell you how many times I've seen it snow on Super Bowl Sunday here. 

 

Like the part about strong convergence over the lake in the discussion. 

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RGEM is a bit further south with the sfc low at 48 compared to the 18z NAM. However, it's also a bit deeper than the NAM and more expansive with the precip shield to the north of the low. Ul trough looks slightly deeper too. Would probably net a similar result beyond 48 hrs.

It really digs that northern stream wave more than most other guidance.

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From Gilbert at NIU.

 

Current thinking is that models are overdoing precipitation amounts except for

the GFS. There is concern that dry northeast winds will evaporate at least a

few inches of the snow before it hits the ground. As a result, there is some

concern that for Rockford, in a "worst case" scenario, they could only wind up

with a few inches of snow. But, the problem is that the models continue to

track northward with every single run, starting with the run early yesterday

evening. As a result, I do not want to downplay this event for our northern

campuses, and yet, I do think evaporation could hurt the amounts we all get

unless the system tracks farther north.

 

 

If it were more than just the GFS showing a much drier scenario I'd give it more thought, but with the ECMWF/UKMET/NAM all much wetter I'm wouldn't be so sure.

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18z NAM for MKE....Primetime for lake effect snow looks to be around 3z. Inversion heights peak at 6000ft and there’s a nice overlap of convergence and super saturation within the DGZ that will only be a couple thousand feet from the surface. Not to mention,  40mph gusts mixing to the surface as well.
 

332vwia.png

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It really digs that northern stream wave more than most other guidance.

 

I was thinking the same thing just from a cursory look. But when I was comparing the individual H5 height contours to the NAM, I couldn't find a tremendous amount of difference. Then I noticed the RGEM base map is skewed a fair bit to the left. I'm wondering if that's what gives the impression that its wave is more amplified than it is.

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