Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Sign in to follow this  
Thundersnow12

January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event

Recommended Posts

12z GGEM looks pretty decent for N IL and S WI through 120 hours, going off the b/w maps. Little jackpot of around 0.40" close to Geos-land on the 120 hour map.

 

looking at the later frames...looks a lot like the gfs....everyone 'safe' temp wise north of the ohio river...just not a ton of moisture

 

widespread 1-4" for a lot of the subforum south and west of   including MI.  Keeps that dual low structure, one low in OH the other in the south states, they don't phase til off shore.

 

fixed it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looking at the later frames...looks a lot like the gfs....everyone 'safe' temp wise north of the ohio river...just not a ton of moisture

 

Yep, see it on WB now. Looks like central IA through the southern 1/2 of WI does best, but everyone gets a little something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indiana look on the 12z GGEM. IND needs to score in one of these. Nice LAF sucker hole, but models seem to love doing that for some reason. Certainly doesn't always translate.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Track of the low looks like a good set up for lake enhancement along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. Hopefully we get this to produce. I see some potential in this system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Canadian is proposing a split precip field, one north through Chicago and another wave south along the Ohio River. I'm not buying this idea, it's like a woman not knowing which outfit to buy so she gets them both.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Track of the low looks like a good set up for lake enhancement along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. Hopefully we get this to produce. I see some potential in this system.

 

 

That will be worth watching.  On the GFS, thermodynamics/inversion heights improve with time but the flow starts backing more N/NW by that time, putting more of the emphasis on IN/MI.  But I suppose it doesn't pay to get into details at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 00z Euro run was a nice hit for Ohio.  150 hr forecast shows snow for nearly all of IN, OH, PA. It is hard to estimate total QPF by just looking at Wunderground though. The fact that there are some values over 0.175" per 3hrs is nice- maybe up to 3" of snow in 6hrs or 6" of snow in 12hrs. I find it a little fishy that the Euro and GFS have changed so much with this southwestern storm (Texas low) in the last few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

usually a decent location for us....very nice

 

I like where we sit for the good, long duration period of advection/overrunning snows. I don't know how the evolution of the main sfc low will play out but the trends are nice.

 

LAF brothers should be feelin' pretty good about this run. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like where we sit for the good, long duration period of advection/overrunning snows. I don't know how the evolution of the main sfc low will play out but the trends are nice.

 

LAF brothers should be feelin' pretty good about this run. 

 

yeah...little cairo is tops for bigger dogs....but as you said, for over running with the modeled strength of the SLP at this juncture...we're sitting pretty good.  Very difficult to pin down convectively driven inhibition of the QPF shield up this way at this point...can only watch the trends as we progress through the week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CMH crusher....way too early to get the perfect storm modeled :axe:

edit: just saw those snow maps....not perfect phew...lol

It's too soon to worry about details that are 2° from freezing. Lol. I'll be losing some sleep tracking this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

euro ens are all over the place...   but overall the take away is weaker and a bit more southeast then the OP, which you'd expect.  The control looks identical to the ggem. 

Thunder's/\ right there are some good hits on the individuals for just about everyone lol.

 

Low placements fwiw...

post-622-0-11095900-1422390068_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NOT SAYING THIS STORM IS GOING TO DO THIS but one thing keep in mind that the NE Blizzard was just an advisory storm 3 days ago (Saturday morning AFDs were not much happening then the 12Z run changed everything).  My point being I think one or more of these storms in Feb/March will be significant here in the GLs but may not look like much until we are within 3 days of the storm.  Plus obviously this year there will be a lot of model discrepancy involved.  This winter we are just not going to have one of those GHD like 7 tracking day storms with known model biases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

euro ens are all over the place...   but overall the take away is weaker and a bit more southeast then the OP, which you'd expect.  The control looks identical to the ggem. 

Thunder's/\ right there are some good hits on the individuals for just about everyone lol.

 

Low placements fwiw...

I would love to see that 999mb over Cleveland :thumbsup:   (sorry I know you wouldn't :yikes:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see potential...lots of potential. Still a few days out yet, but this looks to be one of the most promising storms so far this winter for a good portion of the sub-forum. I'm not getting my chops set yet, however. Too much uncertainty. Don't have the time this week to obsess over the models (I'll leave that to the pros ;) ), but I am looking forward to how this plays out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×