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Thundersnow12

January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event

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Wouldn't shock me if it edges north again 12z. Just an unsubstantiated hunch

0z Euro has a weak/flat wave in Nebraska while the 0z GFS has a much sharper trough digging almost into the panhandle of TX both at 12z Sunday.  Almost like the GEM/GFS trended stronger with the wave but the Euro left it the same.  Slightly stronger, but not much.

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yea, it's horrible.  12z tomorrow will tell the tale....either euro caves or the others do.  Doubt we'll still see this kind of spread then.

Even with recently weak performance, seeing the Euro as the least amped solution makes me a littler nervous. Although I must say that is not how I had us losing out if we do lose out lol. Could be that the Euro just has not caught on to a trend the GFS/GEM already see. Kinda like this week's blizzard... icon_twisted.gif

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is this solution strictly a product of it holding more energy back?

It holds more energy back, probably due to the northern shortwave not digging as aggressively into the Rockies as you mentioned this afternoon.

 

0z Euro has a weak/flat wave in Nebraska while the 0z GFS has a much sharper trough digging almost into the panhandle of TX both at 12z Sunday.  Almost like the GEM/GFS trended stronger with the wave but the Euro left it the same.  Slightly stronger, but not much.

That is what I saw in the 0z models as well. The Euro was stronger with the ridging over AK and a bit farther SW with the PV which argues for the shortwave digging farther southwest, but it was just too weak with it to do anything. The shortwave won't separate from the N. Pac upper low until tomorrow night/Friday morning, so how strong it ends up being is anybody's guess. Although the GFS and GGEM both trended stronger with it overall over the last few runs.

 

here ya go....a tad diff from the ggem

I'd take for selfish reasons.

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6z nam has jackpot from Chicago To Detroit,basically I80 and north. It goes only out to 84, but would assume a long duration event, with significant accumulations in the areas mentioned. 

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Decent Western lake signal on the Euro and GFS. Inversion heights are mostly in the 3-5k range but do peak at 6k for a time. Winds are 10-30 degrees through the boundary layer much of Sunday. Probably enough to squeeze out at least an inch or two.

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6z nam has jackpot from Chicago To Detroit,basically I80 and north. It goes only out to 84, but would assume a long duration event, with significant accumulations in the areas mentioned. 

Oh yeaaa!!!  We have the NAM on our side.  I can barely contain my excitement the Detroit Lions in the the Super Bowl!!!  

 

Joking aside at least the 6Z GFS took a baby step north of the 0Z.

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GFS shifted north for the 6z run. Sharp northern cutoff still there

Need the Euro to play ball. Lot of potential here that we haven't had. Nice thermal divide,artic air, moisture transport overrunning boundary, lake enhancement. Just need the phase to strike the match. Big IF. But like the potential for a widespread white carpet through a good chunk of the forum. Hopefully, a stage setter for the back half of winter.

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If this winter has taught us anything, it's that this will be an unmitigated model disaster right up until halfway through the event.

 

No question, the spread on the GFS Ensembles is laughable, anything from a big storm for Chicago/Milwaukee to absolutely no moisture for the region, and we're only about three days out.

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IND's Mike Ryan lays it out pretty well. Relative portion of the AFD from this morning.

 

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN

VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

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:P sorry Powerball, no way I couldn't bump this. Assuming this storm occurs for some portion of the subforum, models did pretty damn well with the signal 10 days out.

Broken clocks are right twice a day.

But let's hold up on the bumps and back patting until the storm (still 4-5 days out) actually verifies with the massive potential those models showed 10 days out...

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Seems the models are still lost, but coming into somewhat of a better agreement on Atleast the evolution of what's going to happen.

If you are on the north side of this (not a bias opinion here) I wouldn't throw the towel in yet. Plenty of NW shift possibility here. Luckily it's somewhat suppressed on the east side of the state (or this would probably track right over Detroit).

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Not seeing any big changes on the 12z GFS through 42.

Let's just forget about seeing anything synoptic from this. Maybe we see some LES?

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