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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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6z nam has jackpot from Chicago To Detroit,basically I80 and north. It goes only out to 84, but would assume a long duration event, with significant accumulations in the areas mentioned. 

Oh yeaaa!!!  We have the NAM on our side.  I can barely contain my excitement the Detroit Lions in the the Super Bowl!!!  

 

Joking aside at least the 6Z GFS took a baby step north of the 0Z.

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GFS shifted north for the 6z run. Sharp northern cutoff still there

Need the Euro to play ball. Lot of potential here that we haven't had. Nice thermal divide,artic air, moisture transport overrunning boundary, lake enhancement. Just need the phase to strike the match. Big IF. But like the potential for a widespread white carpet through a good chunk of the forum. Hopefully, a stage setter for the back half of winter.

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If this winter has taught us anything, it's that this will be an unmitigated model disaster right up until halfway through the event.

 

No question, the spread on the GFS Ensembles is laughable, anything from a big storm for Chicago/Milwaukee to absolutely no moisture for the region, and we're only about three days out.

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IND's Mike Ryan lays it out pretty well. Relative portion of the AFD from this morning.

 

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN

VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

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:P sorry Powerball, no way I couldn't bump this. Assuming this storm occurs for some portion of the subforum, models did pretty damn well with the signal 10 days out.

Broken clocks are right twice a day.

But let's hold up on the bumps and back patting until the storm (still 4-5 days out) actually verifies with the massive potential those models showed 10 days out...

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Seems the models are still lost, but coming into somewhat of a better agreement on Atleast the evolution of what's going to happen.

If you are on the north side of this (not a bias opinion here) I wouldn't throw the towel in yet. Plenty of NW shift possibility here. Luckily it's somewhat suppressed on the east side of the state (or this would probably track right over Detroit).

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When it comes down to it, that arctic air is coming in too fast, thus pushing things further south than earlier modeled. Very little chance for northward trends.

 

False. It comes down to how much the nrn wave can dig when then in turn leads to how quickly the cold air comes down. Flatter track would obviously mean quicker cold air and a wave that can dig more will pump heights out ahead of it and have the cold air come down slower. 

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When it comes down to it, that arctic air is coming in too fast, thus pushing things further south than earlier modeled. Very little chance for northward trends.

Not to be a smart azz but wasn't this modeled well south of the Ohio River and nearly DOA on yesterday's 12Z suite ?Agreed a consensus of a moderate to heavy snow band along the I-70 corridor seems to be forming. And given this years trend of south you are most likely correct, but a true phaser could open the door for a slight nort trend. Either way, looks like a legit. snow for a good part of the forum.

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Compared to the 0z, the 12z GFS, to my eye at least, appears to have the northern stream wave more compact, but digs it less.  The result for us I-80 folks is that the precip shield gets farther north than that disgusting gradient we saw modelled last night, but at the same time, the idea of a full phase, or really even a significant partial phase with any of the SW cutoff energy, is starting to look a bit dubious.  Let's see what the GGEM does in about an hour!

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gfs has been very consistent it's last 3 runs....minor shifts in qpf shield/amounts.  

Looking like a solid 3-6" widespread snowfall centered on i70,  Low end warning criteria.   Long duration light to mod at times.   Still feel biggest risk is further south and weak....euro is a huge red flag.

 

Really interested in seeing if the ggem tames or holds serve....and if the euro amps or holds serve.

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