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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Track of the low looks like a good set up for lake enhancement along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. Hopefully we get this to produce. I see some potential in this system.

 

 

That will be worth watching.  On the GFS, thermodynamics/inversion heights improve with time but the flow starts backing more N/NW by that time, putting more of the emphasis on IN/MI.  But I suppose it doesn't pay to get into details at this point.

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The 00z Euro run was a nice hit for Ohio.  150 hr forecast shows snow for nearly all of IN, OH, PA. It is hard to estimate total QPF by just looking at Wunderground though. The fact that there are some values over 0.175" per 3hrs is nice- maybe up to 3" of snow in 6hrs or 6" of snow in 12hrs. I find it a little fishy that the Euro and GFS have changed so much with this southwestern storm (Texas low) in the last few days.

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I like where we sit for the good, long duration period of advection/overrunning snows. I don't know how the evolution of the main sfc low will play out but the trends are nice.

 

LAF brothers should be feelin' pretty good about this run. 

 

yeah...little cairo is tops for bigger dogs....but as you said, for over running with the modeled strength of the SLP at this juncture...we're sitting pretty good.  Very difficult to pin down convectively driven inhibition of the QPF shield up this way at this point...can only watch the trends as we progress through the week

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NOT SAYING THIS STORM IS GOING TO DO THIS but one thing keep in mind that the NE Blizzard was just an advisory storm 3 days ago (Saturday morning AFDs were not much happening then the 12Z run changed everything).  My point being I think one or more of these storms in Feb/March will be significant here in the GLs but may not look like much until we are within 3 days of the storm.  Plus obviously this year there will be a lot of model discrepancy involved.  This winter we are just not going to have one of those GHD like 7 tracking day storms with known model biases.

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euro ens are all over the place...   but overall the take away is weaker and a bit more southeast then the OP, which you'd expect.  The control looks identical to the ggem. 

Thunder's/\ right there are some good hits on the individuals for just about everyone lol.

 

Low placements fwiw...

I would love to see that 999mb over Cleveland :thumbsup:   (sorry I know you wouldn't :yikes:)

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I see potential...lots of potential. Still a few days out yet, but this looks to be one of the most promising storms so far this winter for a good portion of the sub-forum. I'm not getting my chops set yet, however. Too much uncertainty. Don't have the time this week to obsess over the models (I'll leave that to the pros ;) ), but I am looking forward to how this plays out. 

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