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January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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A lot of blowing/drifting in my yard here in Littleton, MA however the official report of 28.4" looks about right.  Now if round 2 can get organized here in the next couple of hours we may hit 30".  Got to be close to an all time record snowfall in a lot of places!  

 

As for model performance got give more respect to the new GFS but also the RGEM and WSI's RPM.   Although the RPM jumps around a bit qpf wise, it had the general storm track correct (se of the 40/70) and correctly showed the lack of snow in NYC.    As always the key is to find the right blend of models.

 

 

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This is not to take away from any of the other subforums and it is not a comparison.

 

But this group...all of you.  Kill it.  Collectively it's a very, very rare day where this gang of pros, soon to be pros, amateurs and hobbyists miss a forecast.   Everyone plays a part, and if you go back and look at the last xx years...there's a rare day where something breaks to a surprise solution that someone here wasn't on top of.

 

Today and yesterday case in point.   You guys are the best - we're very fortunate to have the pros, and the resource in general.  Such a great team....   There's a level of technical knowledge, theory, experience, and local climo knowledge that is just indispensable.  It really is.

 

Great post by a consistently great poster.

 

We're all very sleep-deprived, but the sentiment is widely shared.

 

Bickering and AIT-sword fights aside, this is a gem of a spontaneous community. The shared enthusiasm geeking out over model data and obs, and the shared appreciation for meteorologic rarities is a thrill. The analysis of the past 48 hours was yet another great example... some of us (me included) disappear for months, but invariably return and there is instant community with established personalities and idiosyncracies among old-timers, and embrace of any new-comers that want to contribute.

 

And at some point, I'm curious how everyone balances this hobby with any significant others they may have... man can these epic storms be challenging.

 

Regarding this storm, not sure which if any model had accurate depiction of this afternoons bands over eastern MA aside from HRRR/RAP. Both have eastern MA snowing until at least 8pm. HRRR slightly more east than RAP. Both lay down another 3-5" or so.

 

Someone has to tell TWC anchorwoman that it's not "Framington"

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