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January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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yeah it is makingprogress, taking its sweet time, which is fine as long as it wants to take its sweet time getting through the area. i snowmobile up your way, hoping to get out on the trail next weekend!

good trails up here, went with my neighbors last year.  You know right where I am?  127 near Webster Salisbury line?

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Well the Nam and Rgem both performed badly. HRRR is correcting itself and Elvis is still the king it appears

 

I'm going to disagree with you on the RGEM.  NCEP kept tossing it...I think it's surface low positions come tomorrow may not be all that bad.  Probably a bit NE of reality, but on the same magnitude of error that the accepted models were W and SW.

 

Run through the loop on this - not bad really with reality today/tonight.  The low is definitely skidding still NE..   RGEM may have been too extreme...but like I said compromise....

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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My DP's are climbing out here so that is a good sign that the cold dry air is starting to give in.

 

Most forecasts didn't have us rocking out here until after 11pm so no worries.

 

Once the better banding pivots in snow growth will improve and we're off to the races.  Of course Mike may be asleep by then but he'll be up for the 4am shellacking.

 

And if I wake up and it's like it is now, I'm going to try and book a reservation to Iowa. 

 

Winds are picking up.

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i noticed the same thing on radar, looks like it is hitting a wall. the guy on WMUR said it would take a few hours to get through the virga. i laughed and thought no way, it will happen fast. turns out that the guy who gets paid to predict the weather was right, and i was wrong. :)

Steve do me a favor please. Run up to Turkey Hill when you get a chance check on my old house, maybe take a pic if you can. The contractor was biting at the bit to tear off roof, add a second story and expand to the tune of 800k.

 

You guys, I'm so friggin jealous, pissed and frustrated. A balmy 49F here...

 

Wishing all luck and be safe! 

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Question for mets/anyone

 

I know it's not my imagination , almost always on radar with precip pin wheeling in from the Atlantic , I see these sort of "anti-bands' of lighter returns cutting into precip shield (NE to SW ) over Essex county especially the northern 1/2 . I am guessing that the Dryer N winds draining down from E NH/ Maine sort of feed down thru Merrimack valley into Essex county and dry the column out a bit? 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=New_England-rad-12  If you look at cape ann and up in Merrimac valley you can see good returns in both areas sort of get eroded away ...I assume good lift eventually overtakes this but I was wondering if a MET could answer that.

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