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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Even though the storm may move out faster, you still have tons of time for more heavy bands to develop, I'd be shocked if you didn't get more than a foot if you have 9 inches already. The storm is still well to the south.

What do you have?  Are you in Kingston, or N. Kingstown?  As the crow flies you're probably 15 miles or so WNW from me.

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Stall is nowhere near what it was on 12z Euro.

 

Not only is SLP further east, the rapidity of exit is greater:

It's like 30 miles east at 18z Tuesday, then by 0z Wednesday it really starts to move away about 60 miles northeast.

Also, the spoiler low starts off southeast of the low we had on the 12z Euro, but eventually is much further northeast.

 

Upsetting for lots of folks I'm sure.

For eastern MA, hope we do well on a deformation band which now seems to be ours.

 

When does it stop the error?   We appear to be about to see a split with one deform band to the west, another near the coast and then some OES. 

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Will this rival January 2005 blizzard? I think so or beat it. And match February 2013..

 

Or dare I say it, it matches 1978

I feel it pales in comparison to all three.  2005 had absolutely ferocious snowfall rates.  This storm hasn't even come close. 2013 was extremely high impact because the snow had so much juice to it and caused so much tree and powerline damage.

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Anyone have any thoughts on the unfortunate Nantucket/Vineyard dryslot? I have 8-9 inches and I think I'm gonna struggle to get over a foot because the radar returns to my south and east look weak.

 

I wouldn't really be surprised to see some dry slotting in that area.  The 700mb low has been taking shape and actually seems to be pushing a bit further north than east and might be closing off a little more west than it is now...can see dry air beginning to wrap in around it

 

700%20low_zpscfyrbkp2.jpg

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what an epic fail for the Euro, especially for western folks

 

It's go-time and the Euro jumped almost 100 miles east in farthest QPF extent in 1 cycle

What hasn't changed is the max jack zone staying near Boston/PVD.  Multi-model consensus on that, so perhaps the error minimizes/mutes once the low is more mature.  Who knows.  I do plan on an earlier exit to the snow tomorrow, probably before lunch for the serious stuff aside of some bands or OES.

 

Really getting cranking now, moisture just piling in from the SE

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When does it stop the error?   We appear to be about to see a split with one deform band to the west, another near the coast and then some OES. 

 

Too many chefs in the kitchen with this storm... and the models struggling to figure out which chef is the head.

 

Any posters in Clinton CT cashing in on that?

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what an epic fail for the Euro, especially for western folks

 

It's go-time and the Euro jumped almost 100 miles east in farthest QPF extent in 1 cycle

One thing about the team behind the Euro.  They'll figure out what's happened since the upgrade and probably fix it next update. 

 

Clinch Your the man on this storm

 

I have seen you nail another storm like this

 

Well done man, well done

 

Thanks but like I said more about going through this twice last winter with storms stalling further east (nobody else cared)..and it did this than having any unique insight.  More a grudge!

 

Agreed!  I've been a fan ever since he nailed a March 2005 storm.  Hard to believe it's been a decade. 

 

That was one to remember too.

 

Too many chefs in the kitchen with this storm... and the models struggling to figure out which chef is the head.

 

Any posters in Clinton CT cashing in on that?

 

No -NAO, seems to be the case that we don't get things to come together as easy. 

 

It's going gong show now, look at that moisture exploding in the old dry slot.   Also note the screw zone developing in between the two main bands.   Something to watch.

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Stall is nowhere near what it was on 12z Euro.

 

Not only is SLP further east, the rapidity of exit is greater:

It's like 30 miles east at 18z Tuesday, then by 0z Wednesday it really starts to move away about 60 miles northeast.

Also, the spoiler low starts off southeast of the low we had on the 12z Euro, but eventually is much further northeast.

 

Upsetting for lots of folks I'm sure.

For eastern MA, hope we do well on a deformation band which now seems to be ours.

Sorry, i'll trade 7 extra hours of 1/2" per hour snow for the deformation band.

This is nirvana.

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i didnt like the way this was developing from this morning, it just seemed too far offshore to me the whole time but with all the really good guys behind it I figured they must know and see things I dont. At the end of the day I am just a snow geek living in a pit for snow lovers but this time it wasnt downsloping/shadowing etc. Mother Nature still throws curve balls every once in awhile and this storm fooled a lot of people. Mets out this way who are so conservative tossed out tremendous numbers , numbers in some cases higher than feb 13.

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No question the long duration aspect of this storm is now somewhat in doubt. I honestly do not think anyone outside of SE MA or where the fronto band stalls out is going to get >24". It is obvious at this point where things are trending.

For those so inclined http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

 

Flip between the 12z and 0z.  Worst I've ever seen the Euro do.  That's pathetic for that time range, if it were the NAM it'd be getting crapped all over.

 

Now here's the thing?   How do we know it's not off by just as much at h12 this run?

 

Food for thought..although radar looks good.

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Lot of people going to wake up very pissed off to the west.

Looks like the band is not far from it's maximum push west. Gaping hole in RI. What's up with RI and sucker holes?

lol some of us just will, stay up and watch this debacle back this way. You know over the past couple days I would get annoyed with your analysis but I have to hand it to you. You nailed this system with the eastern capture two days ago and that this was really just a ene event. Well done man, for real.
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