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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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My plow friends have been calling.  I was really ready to downgrade here in the Lakes Region of NH to a 8-12" type storm.  Now the Euro is insistent in these heavy amounts up here too.  I would guess the Euro will cave unless we start seeing a west trend at 18Z

 

Yeah, Everything to day has brought the heavier precip up this way as this one looks like its closing off slightly NE of where it was yesterday

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Still a little disconcerting to see model differences like this. I think Kev-Will_ray still get into the def band for a time.

 

Yeah it's not normal to see this on a 24 hour forecast...esp with good models like the RGEM. I can understand the GFS being junk in these large storms because it usually is, but seeing other guidance further east is a head scratcher.

 

Euro did tick east just a shade though this run...so we'll see how we look over the next 12 hours.

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Still a little disconcerting to see model differences like this. I think Kev-Will_ray still get into the def band for a time.

 

Thanks.   Winds right now would have me thinking CF is going to be an issue.

 

I'll say this - we WILL chase the NE thing on the Euro even with the 0z model tonight.  It doesn't stop..just a function of the model where it slowly adjusts.

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Yeah it's not normal to see this on a 24 hour forecast...esp with good models like the RGEM. I can understand the GFS being junk in these large storms because it usually is, but seeing other guidance further east is a head scratcher.

 

Euro did tick east just a shade though this run...so we'll see how we look over the next 12 hours.

will be interesting to see if the 18z runs shift closer to Euro...even some.

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Euro gets it way north. It should be more SW-NE at our lat when arriving and then N-S before pivoting out.

Dryslot...close to 1.50" I'd say for you.

EURO rots the deform band up here. That's ridiculous and I toss. You can see how it lingers QPF up here for several panels.

Anyway, hard numbers are 1.4" for Lewiston and 1.7" for Laconia, 1.0" for MVL. I'll eat my hat if Dryslot only gets 0.4" more QPF than up here. That was a bizarre run.

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