N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm scared we dryslot instead of turn to rain. Just make sure you are awake in the wee hours into Morning rush to see that Fronto Band absolutely demolish you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event The EURO has had some short term fails this year, at least up here. There haven't been many winter storms for you guys to compare but up here so far this winter, the Euro sniffs the threat out first, it's the most consistent, but it's been too heavy on QPF in the short range. Even the last wet snow event up here it had 1.6" of QPF for me within 12 hours of the event that verified with 0.6" as the heaviest went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 hey Scott MPM got bumped but wanted me to ask you what the chances are they get him out on a 4:30 out of Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm scared we dryslot instead of turn to rain. I think you'll be obliterated, even if you do slot for a bit. Gonna be epic down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 hey Scott MPM got bumped but wanted me to ask you what the chances are they get him out on a 4:30 out of Hartford? Should be ok I think. But that is up to the airline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That oes enhanced stuff near BOS is really going to help if we fight mid level dry air... low level forcing from the CF... Keep it pumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When does Cory P's flight leave Ft laudy (Snowman) or did it already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm a longtime lurker, infrequent poster. As we get set to kick this storm off, just curious from the veterans how you see this storm evolving from a "historic storm" perspective. It seems like a hard thing to do heading into a storm - eg I'm sure nobody would have predicted the Blizzard of 78 to be historic. New England is hard to make broad-brush generalizations about for the reasons inherently obvious to this group. That being said, where do folks see this one stacking up? Top 5 for snowfall potential in several of the "Big 4" climo sites. The wind near you will be intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When does Cory P's flight leave Ft laudy (Snowman) or did it already I think he said he landed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When does Cory P's flight leave Ft laudy (Snowman) or did it already I think he said it was supposed to leave at 7...I think he posted from the gate this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When does Cory P's flight leave Ft laudy (Snowman) or did it already He already landed in Logan...he texted me on how pumped he was that he made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Frikkin awesome to see what is happening just off the NC coast. Love the south to north motion and explosion of cloud tops. BTW if you didn't know, there is an awesome pinned thread in the NYC subforum with every conceivable radar, satellite pressure falls, etc link. Many maps and images here for upcoming storm: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 1030 AM UPDATE...HERE WE GO.TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDINGWITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLANDMAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OFTHERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THATWE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPINGWARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TOINTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCEDBAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OFOCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOWBANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEWENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULDACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATEE-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OFWINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWSOVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITYTO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENTINCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSUREOFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITHINCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OFOCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENINGCOMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCEDVISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TOEVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THATCLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i dont think they wanted to put the 24-36s up but they had to mesh it with BOX. We can analyze all of the model runs until we're blue in the face, but it's hard to pin down those deformation bands until the event gets cranking. I still think it looks best for that ORH-LWM-PSM corridor, but we'll see how it plays out. I liked 10-14" here last night and GYX has me in that now. High bust potential either way. Not going to nail down specifics as far as suckerholes, Subsidance zones or dryslots until this sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 wow. Nice job Ryan. And you are not a debby downer, just a good meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i dont think they wanted to put the 24-36s up but they had to mesh it with BOX. We can analyze all of the model runs until we're blue in the face, but it's hard to pin down those deformation bands until the event gets cranking. I still think it looks best for that ORH-LWM-PSM corridor, but we'll see how it plays out. I liked 10-14" here last night and GYX has me in that now. High bust potential either way. That's my thought. I'm liking my call of 20" ±2" for MBY but I'd like to see where that band sets up (as I know everyone would!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GYX all over the road, my totals up and down by a foot every update it seems. First big January snowstorm in years, and I'm visiting family in S. NJ - expecting 12-16" down here, had about 1" from today's clipper. We were planning to drive home tomorrow - guess that's not a wise idea, but the Forester ought to make it on Wednesday. I'd be satisfied with the current GYX forecast of 8-12" for S. Franklin; would be nice to be able to get into the driveway Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not surprising but the 12z GGEM moved towards the RGEM/GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have a question regarding snow growth. Does high winds always mean bad dendrite formations? We have blizzard warnings up for my hood. Winds gusting to 65mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wonder if BOX will update their map to show the BOS area sucker hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not surprising but the 12z GGEM moved towards the RGEM/GFS camp Yeah it really cut down out west...BTV's southern Warnings and most of ALY's warnings would be in trouble, especially Litchfield's Blizzard Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When does Cory P's flight leave Ft laudy (Snowman) or did it already He posted pics from the air of the storm an hour ago on FB... not sure where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm a longtime lurker, infrequent poster. As we get set to kick this storm off, just curious from the veterans how you see this storm evolving from a "historic storm" perspective. It seems like a hard thing to do heading into a storm - eg I'm sure nobody would have predicted the Blizzard of 78 to be historic. New England is hard to make broad-brush generalizations about for the reasons inherently obvious to this group. That being said, where do folks see this one stacking up? I think it is going to fall short of a storm like Feb '78 and probably even Feb 2013. But I think it will probably be in the top 10...you are correct that it is very hard to really pin down the magnitude of these events until it's usually already well underway. But just comparing the model progs from this one to Feb '13, I think it falls just a shade short. That said, there are certain areas that will get more than theydid in that storm, but I think the widespread coverage of 24"+ will be less in this storm than that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When you guys say absolutely crushed out here on the cape from the fronto banding, how much is crushed? Like 12-18" before dry slotting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah it really cut down out west...BTV's southern Warnings and most of ALY's warnings would be in trouble, especially Litchfield's Blizzard Warning. Well, I am enjoying these trends, My qpf keeps bumping up............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it looks like there was another dual low pressure on the Gem at hour 24, without an nice clean and early enough capture ,Western New England could be toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 He already landed in Logan...he texted me on how pumped he was that he made it. I would have killed myself if I didn't make it. Like Literally lol. It's snowing nicely here. At a friends house in Jamacia Plain right now. Went on the T with my bags and Flamed Accordion. Happy as Ever. My dad will be picking me up later to bring me to KCNM. You guys need to come sledding at CN Mountain this weekend!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is still showing 28" of snow for CHH, while NAM is now showing 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GGEM QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well, I am enjoying these trends............. lol we are going to disown you in NNE and lump you in with the SNE'ers for rooting for SE tics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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