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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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GFS is my least favorite model in coastal systems....but the RGEM being east would be giving me a lot of pause if I forecasting in the ALB CWA.

The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event

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Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this.

 

It doesn't. It depends on the situation. Many of our previous storms had the band east, it's just your perception.

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Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this.

Elevation may be a factor. Don't know how much of one because not familiar enough with deformation band dynamics to know how much the surface plays into it, but have seen the same thing with snow squalls dying as they get into the Boston basin

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Yeah, lots of focus on NYC for bust potential, but its huge up this way too.  We could fluff our way to double digits, or will count the flurries while a secondary mega band destroys just East of us in NE.

This is going to be tight in western areas...ALB has 10-14" forecast for the city, and two feet in the Berks. GFS says no.

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