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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

This is coming from a model that had nothing 6 hours ago. just sayin

Very true and not saying I by the very specifics of the 12z NAM just that this run shows a concern I have had since yesterday. That cut off will be there and will probably be pretty sharp just a mater of where it ends up. Could very easily be west of Delaware but I am not discounting it come east into parts of western NJ.

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted

Does anyone have the text or memory of what NYC Mets were calling for in the March 2001 storm that fizzled for NYC? Also what was the qpf?

Yes that was a terrible deal, and the storm was timed to arrive on a Monday as well. Mets were backing down Sunday morning. You could hear in their voices the letdown, since it rained after calling for 18 plus. I remember the 1010 wins guy. It was like his dog died. Inland got top 10 storm for many.

I do believe that was a different setup.

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+SNfreak21

+SNfreak21

Posted
Posted

Enjoy today, I mean while we can still get around. Stay safe everyone. I mean that with all sincerity. Still can not wrap my head around some of the numbers coming out of the models. This is going to be so disruptive, that the sane folks would want this out to sea. This is what 3/24-26/2014 did. You'll all wish this did the same when it is over. Think about it.

 

If this was a heavy wet snow, this would be very concerning, but this is the ultimate HECS we have all been waiting for

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

Yes that was a terrible deal, and the storm was timed to arrive on a Monday as well. Mets were backing down Sunday morning. You could hear in their voices the letdown, since it rained after calling for 18 plus. I remember the 1010 wins guy. It was like his dog died. Inland got top 10 storm for many.

I do believe that was a different setup.

 

EURO only ran once a day back then. Earlier in the season the GFS owned the ETA during the Dec 30 storm so a lot of mets. were leaning on the GFS. GFS kept showing a big snowstorm while the other models backed off in the 48 hour range. GFS busted obviously. 

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Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Posted
Posted

I just don't want my power to go out (though my power survived sandy). Considering I live in Brooklyn, and the snow will most likely be a power done, is it safe to assume I probably won't lose power?

well I work for con Edison so I am on it don't worry if your are underground you should be fine until they throw salt down
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nightknights

nightknights

Posted
Posted

do you think nyc will be put under blizzard watches or warnings later today ?

Finally they put it in print

 

THE INGREDIENTS ARE THEN COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC

NOR`EASTER AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY MON.

THIS LOW UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT

NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH

TUE NIGHT. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24H FROM MON TO TUE

MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST

AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT-HVY

SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEMBERS SUPPORTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID

EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

THAT BEING THE CASE...SNOW BANDING WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR WEST

AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN

HOUR AT TIMES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FOOT WITH AMOUNTS AS

HIGH AS 2 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. ONCE AGAIN

THOUGH...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MOST INTENSE BANDING IS

DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

 

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted

Finally they put it in print

 

THE INGREDIENTS ARE THEN COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC

NOR`EASTER AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY MON.

THIS LOW UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT

NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH

TUE NIGHT. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24H FROM MON TO TUE

MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST

AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT-HVY

SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEMBERS SUPPORTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID

EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

THAT BEING THE CASE...SNOW BANDING WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR WEST

AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN

HOUR AT TIMES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FOOT WITH AMOUNTS AS

HIGH AS 2 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. ONCE AGAIN

THOUGH...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MOST INTENSE BANDING IS

DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

 

You dont see that everyday

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MikeS

MikeS

Posted
Posted

Blizzard Watch Issued:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
 
...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY....
 
CTZ005-009-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-176-178-252300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.A.0002.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015
 
...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
 
* LOCATIONS...THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.
 
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS LIKELY.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
 
* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
 
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
 
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.
 
* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
  OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
 
* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
  STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
  TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
  POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.
 
&&
 
$$
 

 

 

 

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