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Morris

Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260430- /O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX- EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH. SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS. && $$

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Never seen 24-36" over NYC... wow. Just incredible.

 

surprised their being so gung ho , when models have been trending eastward this afternoon.

 

guess their predicting a stronger more coastal shift for 0z.  Which does happen a lot of times with big storms. 

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Tonight A chance of snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: Snow likely before 9am, then snow with widespread blowing snow after 9am. High near 27. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Blustery, with a northeast wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Windy, with a north wind 26 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 26. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Windy, with a north wind 36 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow with widespread blowing snow before midnight, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow between midnight and 3am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow after 3am. Low around 15. Windy, with a northwest wind 23 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

I don't think I've ever seen a point and click like this for Brooklyn even since BDB. EVER. This is 24-37"! INSANE!

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the sharp gradient on the 18z NAM does make me slightly worried, just hope it locks in tonight at 00z

Let's see do we go with the number one rated model that scouted the storm first and has remained consistent run to run or do we trust the erratic model that barely showed anything this morning? Tough choice. 

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Incredible 24-36....i'm thinking there is very high bust potential bust potential at least for at least part of that area.....I would think the 14-18/18-24 would be more than sufficient to cover all the ENJ area....with less NW....but I guess they really want to get the word out. Most of LI should have no problem with the 24-36....

 

 

My Point + click forecast 1-3, then 10-14, then 10-14, then 1-2 = 22-31 inches.....I think its way overdone, but we shall see. I'd like for some models other than the Euro to show this though, especially closer to the event now

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Gfs holds Serve from 12z....would like to see one model agree with the euro

It looks a tad wetter for some. I wouldn't expect bigger changes until tonight's runs but I see your point. I don't think the Euro would be wrong in this range. 

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If NWS had lower totals some would complain it's too low, now they have higher totals and some complain it's too high...well many pro Mets have increased their totals similarly to NWS.

You can't win with some.

The EURO has this in the bag.

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1/25 18z Summary

 

NYC: QPF (snowfall)

 

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>20")

NAM:   1.25 - 1.50 (>18")

RGEM: 1.00 - 1.15 (>14")

GFS:  0.80 - 1.10  (>14")

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Gfs holds Serve from 12z....would like to see one model agree with the euro

 

I somewhat agree. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I'm not sure those 2-3 feet forecasts are going to verify for a majority of people in this forum. 

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