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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions


Morris

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1/25 12z Summary

NYC area : QPF (Snow)

 

 

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")

NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")

GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")

RGEM: 1.00 (>12")

GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95  (>10")

UKMET:  1.65 - 1.80  (>20")

GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50  (>20")

ECM:  2.00 - 2.50 (>24")

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The jet looks to get further west than 2/8/13, so the heavy banding should have no problem making it to NYC and west. That right there screams huge snow rates-tremendous amount of moisture being pulled west. 

 

Yeah, the phase with the February 2013 blizzard was too far east for Nassau and NYC

to get into the best banding which we won't have to worry with this track and evolution.

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1/25 12z Summary

NYC area : QPF (Snow)

 

 

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")

NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")

GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")

RGEM: 1.00 (>12")

GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95  (>10")

UKMET:  1.65 - 1.80  (>20")

GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50  (>20")

ECM:  2.00 - 2.50 (>24")

 

 

Nice to see the Euro with the highest amounts! Also, good to see the GEFS with those amounts considering the GFS run.

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They really put out a PowerPoint presentstion hahaha

They always do. Hazardous weather briefings. I actually sat in meetings for an overland oil spill cleanup project several years ago in MI and the NWS folks would call in and report the daily briefing. It was and EPA oversight project, and a big one.

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1/25 12z Summary

NYC area : QPF (Snow)

 

 

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")

NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")

GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")

RGEM: 1.00 (>12")

GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95  (>10")

UKMET:  1.65 - 1.80  (>20")

GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50  (>20")

ECM:  2.00 - 2.50 (>24")

 

 

 

that is with low ratios/. with the cold air in place the ratios probably will be 15:1 or higher.  

 

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SREF mean is a bit drier. It's still pretty useless and uses 12z NAM data

They're not useless, however it is sad that foreign models are so far superior to ours, even our mesoscale models. The srefs in this range are normally a good guide, however, with this dynamic a storm, the Euro is far superior.
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