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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

I seriously want to see some other model agree with the Euro. I know it's the king and all.....but when you're forecasting 2 to 3 feet of snow based on one model and one model only.....its big stuff. But true, it is not really a risky forecast...if NYC gets, say, 14" it could be argued that the best dynamics and all stayed just east.....and since LI and SCT probably will be in that range of maybe 20-30, it won't be considered a bust. The 18 hour RAP did not look half bad though, but it's out of range at that hour and really hard to tell how it will end up

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

Upton:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

...A LIFE THREATENING...HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM LATE

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER FOR A

DANGEROUS...HISTORIC BLIZZARD AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID

INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE

MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...STALLING SE OF MONTAUK LATE MON NIGHT

INTO TUE. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24 HR FROM MON AM TO TUE

AM... BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING.

THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE

LOW. AFTER LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES DURING THE

DAYTIME HOURS MON IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY LOW...A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF MDT-HVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

FOLLOWED 12Z NAM/ECMWF CLOSELY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUPPORTING QPF

UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS

NOW EXPECTED NOT ONLY ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND/CT BUT ALSO FARTHER

WEST INTO SW CT AND THE NYC METRO AREA/WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AS

MODELS OFTEN DO NOT PLACE THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE MID LEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH WEST. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER

HOUR EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MUCH OF THE AREA

SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 20-30 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BEST

MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP.

IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH

PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL

CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD

WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP

TO 40 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH

INLAND...TO 50-55 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE...TO 65 MPH ACROSS ERN LONG

ISLAND...WHERE A BRIEF HURRICANE FORCE GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT

FALLING TO 15-20 MON NIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN

THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT AS LOW AS ZERO TO 5 BELOW

ACROSS SOUTHERN CT.

THANKS TO ALL NEIGHBORING WFOS...ERH AND WPC FOR COLLABORATION

THIS AFTERNOON.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

mark my words... 00z GFS will come west, and bring along its 18z precip numbers, I would never expect the 18z suite to to have a western correction, it's sample data is almost identical

 

This reminds me of February 2013 when the Euro lead all by itself with occasional agreement

runs from the NAM. The GFS remained too dry across the region even on the 12Z run

the day of the event. 

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted

This reminds me of February 2013 when the Euro lead all by itself with occasional agreement

runs from the NAM. The GFS remained too dry across the region even on the 12Z run

the day of the event.

Exactly, and I can count on 1 hand the amount of times we've said "oh man the GFS lead the way" especially on an ECS, FEB 2013 got as low as 968 I believ and dropped 2+' area wide... I have the utmost faith in the euro... It rarely leads on to only disappoint especially 24 hrs prior, with multiple models of collaboration... Idc if the 12z GFS is OTS tomorrow I have no faith in that model anymore

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

One thing that needs to be watched... the 18z GFS has continued its trend from the 12z run to be a little bit further east.

 

12z ECMWF EPS was about the same as the 00z EPS but actually increased the spread on the low position at 60 h range... quite a bit of uncertainty is still there about snowfall totals in NYC.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

One thing that needs to be watched... the 18z GFS has continued its trend from the 12z run to be a little bit further east.

 

12z ECMWF EPS was about the same as the 00z EPS but actually increased the spread on the low position at 60 h range... quite a bit of uncertainty is still there about snowfall totals in NYC.

 

The RGEM being different would worry me more than the GFS...I think its possible the RGEM is getting so overwhelmed with the dynamics to the NNE of the low over SNE its causing it to have an oversubsident area on the W side of the low by NYC.  It may be getting so WAA infatuated its overlooking frontogenetic/deformation features W or WSW of the low.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Exactly, and I can count on 1 hand the amount of times we've said "oh man the GFS lead the way" especially on an ECS, FEB 2013 got as low as 968 I believ and dropped 2+' area wide... I have the utmost faith in the euro... It rarely leads on to only disappoint especially 24 hrs prior, with multiple models of collaboration... Idc if the 12z GFS is OTS tomorrow I have no faith in that model anymore

 

And add that to the point that the NWS brings up.

 

MODELS OFTEN DO NOT PLACE THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE MID LEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH WEST.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

bust of the century according to 18z suite

Uhm, what?

 

The NAM and GFS both got slightly wetter and ticked west. The NAM has nearly 2" liquid in NYC and the GFS over an inch. The GFS is consistently too far east with coastal systems, and the NAM has been all over the place. The Euro and ensembles have been rock solid for 3 straight runs, and we're now under 48 hours out. It's just about a slam dunk for me that the vast majority of the tri-state is in for a very memorable storm. 

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Uhm, what?

 

The NAM and GFS both got slightly wetter and ticked west. The NAM has nearly 2" liquid in NYC and the GFS over an inch. The GFS is consistently too far east with coastal systems, and the NAM has been all over the place. The Euro and ensembles have been rock solid for 3 straight runs, and we're now under 48 hours out. It's just about a slam dunk for me that the vast majority of the tri-state is in for a very memorable storm. 

 

Dude was trying to put the NAM on the same level as the Euro last night.  Some people need to read more / post less.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

Uhm, what?

The NAM and GFS both got slightly wetter and ticked west. The NAM has nearly 2" liquid in NYC and the GFS over an inch. The GFS is consistently too far east with coastal systems, and the NAM has been all over the place. The Euro and ensembles have been rock solid for 3 straight runs, and we're now under 48 hours out. It's just about a slam dunk for me that the vast majority of the tri-state is in for a very memorable storm.

The rain event 2 weeks ago the gfs had nothing for us 48 hrs out

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

One thing that needs to be watched... the 18z GFS has continued its trend from the 12z run to be a little bit further east.

 

12z ECMWF EPS was about the same as the 00z EPS but actually increased the spread on the low position at 60 h range... quite a bit of uncertainty is still there about snowfall totals in NYC.

I think the 24-36" shade being brought out by the NWS may have been a little much. There's still that chance, small as it is, that the low forms late and NYC gets fringed. But even fringed probably means a foot of snow or more. 

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

This reminds me of February 2013 when the Euro lead all by itself with occasional agreement

runs from the NAM. The GFS remained too dry across the region even on the 12Z run

the day of the event. 

i don't think the GFS has beaten the euro with a major event in the short range since boxing day 2010

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

And add that to the point that the NWS brings up.

 

.AS

MODELS OFTEN DO NOT PLACE THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE MID LEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH WEST.

Good to see you're on board. I don't know if the other models will ever look like the Euro with this storm just like with Feb 2013. The Euro is clearly leading the way thus the high forecast amounts. I would hope to see an uptick in amounts tonight from the other models though. 

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