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1/25-1/27 Mauler Thread #2


DDweatherman

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Hopefully the website is starting to speed up now. It really is hard to believe that at short range we went from a MA cold powder special to a SNE HECS where we probably get shafted. I don't think I can look at Miller Bs the same anymore. I didn't know this is what they did to y'all when I was in NE.

I used to think the "B" in Miller B stood for "bust" as far as VA is concerned. They almost never deliver here, even for the northern reaches of the DMV.

The evolution of this storm reminds me plenty of 12.30.2000, although I was never invested in this one as much. But the memory of that storm, in the era before these forums really existed, is probably why it was hard to buy the modeled depictions from the past 48 hours as they never ever seem to work out in practice.

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With the primary situation and that dying, I am going down with the ship on this one for my CMD/Bay area forecast totals. 

 

If you were my readership, would you prefer me take a stand and go for it the way I have been in my first call/second call...OR would you prefer me saying, you know what, I think I took the wrong angle, we're not getting much. 

 

I do like mitch's insight regarding the primary, and the trough may really actually go negative quicker. The low back there is progressing awfully slow, so those are good signs. 

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I used to think the "B" in Miller B stood for "bust" as far as VA is concerned. They almost never deliver here, even for the northern reaches of the DMV.

The evolution of this storm reminds me plenty of 12.30.2000, although I was never invested in this one as much. But the memory of that storm, in the era before these forums really existed, is probably why it was hard to buy the modeled depictions from the past 48 hours as they never ever seem to work out in practice.

I agree. People are mentioning northeastern Maryland a lot but trust me these setups never workout here either. Granted i have a slightly better chance of seeing accumulating snow than folks to the south but that being said ive seen complete whiffs many times. I have no faith in getting much more than a dusting to an inch or two.

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I agree. People are mentioning northeastern Maryland a lot but trust me these setups never workout here either. Granted i have a slightly better chance of seeing accumulating snow than folks to the south but that being said ive seen complete whiffs many times. I have no faith in getting much more than a dusting to an inch or two.

I wouldn't say never

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We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper.

Feb 10th, 2010 was a Miller B that started as a clipper.

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We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper.

This is the kind of miller B that comes from a clipper which I agree with. The other screwjob miller b's are lows that develop too late off an OV primary or apps runner, etc. 

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We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper.

 

2 in the last 19 years doesn't really make me feel all warm and fuzzy. 

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This is the kind of miller B that comes from a clipper which I agree with. The other screwjob miller b's are lows that develop too late off an OV primary or apps runner, etc. 

 

 

2 in the last 19 years doesn't really make me feel all warm and fuzzy. 

Okay. It's obvious we don't do good with Miller B's, no matter where they originate. The original low shuts off before we get a front end thump and the bombing low gets going too far north to give us any lovin'. Understood. And I understand we are in a pattern with no blocking.

What I don't understand is why the models of the 21st century have been so bad at modeling all of this crazy, fast flowing data. We should be able to come close to what is going to happen within 24 hours and this time the models (plural) have been weak with good information. Even when changes in the forecast are forthcoming, they only hint at what is going to happen or they take wild swings, all within 24 to 36 hours. This winter has been crazy and I realize some of it is because there are so many moving parts in a fast, progressive flow. But this storm highlights a lot of issues with our state of the art models. Long range inaccuracies are understood, but the swings at close range are harder to fathom.

 

Any one with a few good reasons besides chaos?

 

Okay. No more ranting. Sigh...

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You had to be feeling similarly on 1.30.2010 if you are being honest.

And, unbeknownst at the time.....

That storm was locked up as something by the night prior and we already had seen the hand of winter. I love clippers but our seasonal trend is not a good one at this pt. Yeah not the worst ever but this hurts the optimism meter a bit.
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