Windspeed Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yes, for the Friday system, if the SLP develops in Arkansas and moves ENE across Kentucky, that's going to crank up the southerly flow out ahead in the Tennessee Valley. However, timing is as much a wrench as position. Perhaps the SLP advances eastward much faster, then moist southerly flow is essentially forced over a deep layer airmass below freezing and surfaces below freezing for a good bit of time before the the deep layer can moderate to above freezing. The same areas could experience freezing rain that experienced it on the 16th and other areas might get quite a bit of snow before transitioning to IP, then ZR, and eventually rain. Kentucky could get pounded with another significant snowfall event before p-type transition. Of course, if the low takes a more southern track through Tennessee, they could remain a snow event. There will be plenty of cold air in place across the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 24 hour NAM snowfall on the front end of the next wave. This falls, then it switches to rain west of the plateau. Freezing rain and sleet are falling through hour 84 for East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Total snow for the Clipper and that system on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Starting to get concerned about high winds for areas that still have significant icing on the trees and lines. You can see the mid-level shortwave energy associated with the clipper over the Ark/Mo border bowing out and quickly advancing east. Folks in Arkansas have reported high winds in a line of thundersnow storms passing across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm diggin the HRRR and RAP look of the main band with the backside finger that moves through. This is not a euphemism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm diggin the HRRR and RAP look of the main band with the backside finger that moves through. This is not a euphemism. I was just looking at the HRRR. The band takes on a convective appearance at the end of the run. I hoping it holds off until the afternoon to enhance the convective chances. Would be cool to hear thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Some CAPE showing up tomorrow at 3 pm. Not very much at 196 j/kg but it's there nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Some CAPE showing up tomorrow at 3 pm. Not very much at 196 j/kg but it's there nonetheless. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 937 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 .UPDATE...LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING A BAND OF REFLECTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. BEST ESTIMATES FOR TIMING ARE CKV AROUND 08Z, BNA AROUND 09Z, AND CSV AROUND 11Z. ENHANCES ECHOES WITHIN THE LARGER BAND SUGGEST THE HRRR IS HONING IN ON SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, SO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE SHORTLY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From JKL, hopefully this also translates into SWVA/Tennessee. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURESFALLING AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING. LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERYSTEEP FROM SFC-700MB. WITH THE -20 HEIGHT FALLING TO AROUND850MB...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE REGIONWITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. GIVENTHE HEIGHT OF THE -20C LAYER AND THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE NATURE OFSNOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. THE SNOW THISMORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY AND PRONE TOBLOWING AND DRIFTING WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR THOSE OUTDRIVING AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY AS EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME ROUGHCONDITIONS TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There are some pretty good radar returns over Nashville east towards the plateau. I wonder how much will make it to Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There are some pretty good radar returns over Nashville east towards the plateau. I wonder how much will make it to Knoxville. Streak broken for OHX? WTVF reported 1.2" at the weather office, with another band yet to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Streak broken for OHX? WTVF reported 1.2" at the weather office, with another band yet to come through. Likely it is - we have another 1 1/2" or so on top of the 2 1/2" of sleet - growing concerned about the Friday night time period, although progged to change to rain Saturday, if we get another .25 or so of freezing rain on top of what we have already it might be bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GGEM lays down some pretty heavy snow with the Friday system. The areas along the TN border with both GA and Kentucky see up to 15mm of liquid to snow on the 00z run. That's .6 qpf. As a result it drops 6+ inches both in the southern Valley and the Northern Valley/Plateau and more up into Kentucky. Then it changes to sleet/zr and finally to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On Weather Underground the Euro drops a pretty significant amount of snow over East TN/SWVA Friday night. 4+ inches just going by their frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Judging by the cake of ice on my roof and by what's coming this weekend - once the ice melts we could see considerable flooding. EDIT: If Knoxville and Nashville both get a solid 1-2" today (which is possible) on top of the ice, and the cold really moves in tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow night (which it will), something tells me 0 for lows at Knoxville for both nights anyways are a given. This snow isn't going anywhere today or tomorrow, and may not go anywhere on Friday before the next round hits. In Knoxville we hit 31 yesterday but with all the cloudcover hardly any ice melted around here. I'm all for a nice big thump of morning snow on Saturday, but with nothing melting between now and then things are just getting dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GEM shows .3-.6 of snow in the Southern Valley and it also shows this for sleet. It's bringing serious moisture into the cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SREF plumes are starting to pick up on it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is already one of the juiciest clippers I've ever seen down here. Getting close a half an inch down now. As far as Friday is concerned: fool me once. . . I'll believe it once it is on the ground and not a minute before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is already one of the juiciest clippers I've ever seen down here. Getting close a half an inch down now. As far as Friday is concerned: fool me once. . . I'll believe it once it is on the ground and not a minute before. Yep same here bout a half an inch and still snowing... Hope for some convective now that sun is up. Wind hasn't started here yet but that is my biggest worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And the 12z NAM, similar to last storm, shifts the track northward 150-200 miles for Fri-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And the 12z NAM, similar to last storm, shifts the track northward 150-200 miles for Fri-Sat. But it still gives a nice shot for most of the state before changing over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12Z GFS clown for this weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12Z GFS clown for this weekend storm How much sleet/freezing rain after the change over? Is it going from snow to rain without a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 blah,N/JT crushing the S/JT,faster flow and no wrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the storm for the 27th timeframe is still there. Beautiful display of an active southern stream and a very cold late season high on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the storm for the 27th timeframe is still there. Beautiful display of an active southern stream and a very cold late season high on the 12z GFS. Amazing the Euro has the same storm around the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Amazing the Euro has the same storm around the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Who needs winter in January when you've got to deal with February and early March? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just noticed this in the MRX HWO: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST FRIDAY...SPREADINGCLOUDS AND SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERNTENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS MAY BECOMEHIGHER PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN...BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTTENNESSEE ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEEAND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS...MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OFFREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. ABUNDANTRAINFALL AND WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RELIEVE ANY ICING PROBLEMS.LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM DUE TO RAPIDLY MELTING SNOWPACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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