Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nashville disco Good write up. It seems these NWS folks are getting more jovial these days compared to winters past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No phase on the 12z,nothing much other than flurries/rain and not much of that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've lost count on how many different solutions the GFS has presented us with..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not that I have much confidence in the modeling, especially a week out, but we are seeing some consistency in the idea that a major cold shot is coming later next week. It's not totally dry either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Dacula is probably licking his chops watching 12z GFS, that's a nice hit on GA around Friday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Decent pattern appears to be at least within reach here, but I wouldn't pay much attention to any OP solution past day 4/5. Models continue to struggle..... for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Agreed, but it's always fun to see the 850 freezing line down to the Florida keys, -18 in TN, 30 hours of snow in north GA and still going strong as of hour 240. I'll try to keep the fantasy in banter, but technically this is in the first week of February and fits with the thread hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Decent pattern appears to be at least within reach here, but I wouldn't pay much attention to any OP solution past day 4/5. Models continue to struggle..... for whatever reason. Totally agree. Am I wrong or does it seem that in the recent past that when we see cold in February we seem more likely to get at least a little wintry precip. In other words cold and dry does not seem to happen in Feb as much as in Dec and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Jayson Prentice @SeverePlains ECMWF Op 120hr anomaly correlation of 850hPa temps the past 30 days is 0.878, ensemble mean likely even better. Ensembles are your friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I believe the next two weeks will make us or break us. I'm leaning toward make... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Encouraging. haven't seen this all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I am sure Larry would verify but I do not recall any accumulating snow in ATL on Feb 7 going back to 1966....since that is my DOB...so you got that going for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I am sure Larry would verify but I do not recall any accumulating snow in ATL on Feb 7 going back to 1966....since that is my DOB...so you got that going for it! I wish Larry would verify! :-) After watching New England get their snow... I'm REALLY hurting right now. :-) I love this picture from a Portsmouth NH webcam yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Extrapolate this half inch ATL snow up to 5 inches in your mind: Walking dead level stuff man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Bring on the snow zombies! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Most have jumped completely off the wagon for the Super Bowl Sunday system, and are already looking toward the next possible system, since the modeling looks decent. I have been optimistic from day one on this time period and though the GFS OP looks strung out, and we have other modeling cutting to the lakes, it's not like the GFS ensembles indicate there isn't a chance we score something wintry along I-40.Take a look yourselves. Yes, that's the hour 102 (not 144, not 180, not 240) 12z GFS ensemble. It might not be right, and I am probably going to go down with this ship............. but whatever, it's only weather. One request - have the divers ready to come pull me out of the water and resuscitate me, so I can be ready for the super-storm that is coming late week, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This GA scenario would be extremely cold so the ratios would be rather high. As we all know that kind of snow falling at those temps is nasty slick, especially within the first couple of hours of the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The whole week next week looks interesting . There is GEFS support for this weekend mid week and a good miller A signal for the day 8-10 system . Such a drastic change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Most have jumped completely off the wagon for the Super Bowl Sunday system, and are already looking toward the next possible system, since the modeling looks decent. I have been optimistic from day one on this time period and though the GFS OP looks strung out, and we have other modeling cutting to the lakes, it's not like the GFS ensembles indicate there isn't a chance we score something wintry along I-40. Take a look yourselves. Yes, that's the hour 102 (not 144, not 180, not 240) 12z GFS ensemble. It might not be right, and I am probably going to go down with this ship............. but whatever, it's only weather. One request - have the divers ready to come pull me out of the water and resuscitate me, so I can be ready for the super-storm that is coming late week, lol Oh I haven't given up hope for the "super" storm. It's not terribly far off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Most have jumped completely off the wagon for the Super Bowl Sunday system, and are already looking toward the next possible system, since the modeling looks decent. I have been optimistic from day one on this time period and though the GFS OP looks strung out, and we have other modeling cutting to the lakes, it's not like the GFS ensembles indicate there isn't a chance we score something wintry along I-40. Take a look yourselves. Yes, that's the hour 102 (not 144, not 180, not 240) 12z GFS ensemble. It might not be right, and I am probably going to go down with this ship............. but whatever, it's only weather. GEFS 850 PMSL hr 102 valid 02012015.png One request - have the divers ready to come pull me out of the water and resuscitate me, so I can be ready for the super-storm that is coming late week, lol I agree this weekends system still has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z euro showing a light snowfall (1-3) I-40 north, for the late weekend system. Per the clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yea... I'd rather have clown showing me snow than no snow. At least it indicates that the possibility may be there. Again, it's the first time I've really seen any snow on the maps here in the Atlanta area all winter. I've got to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Last 24 hours of model data is all over the place. NWP is struggling with a complex pattern. GFS weakens Super Sunday, and strengthens #2 later next week (warmer rain). Euro also weakens Super Sunday, and sends #2 into the Deep South. Canadian keeps Super Sunday rain; then, has a strange post frontal winter mix mid-late next week. Believe it is incorrectly combining two pieces of energy. If anything phases it should be east or northeast of our region. All models are struggling with the two streams. Without a Mid-South phase we are left with two options: Positively tilted, colder, but light qpf; or, more neutral tilt but warmer. The cold positive tilt is far from ideal, but yes it at least leaves the door open for light winter precip. I-40 north is favored, esp Upper Cumberland and far northeast Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At the surface it looks like 18z GFS gives light snow to 40 north for the super storm, we all wiff on a text book miller A that is too warm, then it gets really cold but no moisture, finally it ends on a biggun that buries NE TN and the upper cumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm to the point of just taking things as they come and hoping for something good within 12 hours. Models will show rain, blizzards, dry, cold and warm over the coming days, probably all for the same periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm to the point of just taking things as they come and hoping for something good within 12 hours. Models will show rain, blizzards, dry, cold and warm over the coming days, probably all for the same periods. Truth be told I'm in the same boat as you. That being said we're only about a month away from everyone crawling back in their holes until next season (with the exception of some severe here and there) so we might as well have some fun following the ups and downs of the modeling. For me it's about on par with trying to predict the outcome of sports. Although I find weather far more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't know if it's to be trusted, but the 00z is now pretty much an Apps runner, tracks south of the area, before heading up the Apps and lays down a few inches of snow here but really lets Kentucky have it, much more so than it was earlier today. The southern trend may be real with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't know if it's to be trusted, but the 00z is now pretty much an Apps runner, tracks south of the area, before heading up the Apps and lays down a few inches of snow here but really lets Kentucky have it, much more so than it was earlier today. The southern trend may be real with this one. Yep! The low is a little stronger too, and the high to the west isn't as weak either giving us a good strong pressure gradient for a good NNE wind over ETN, maybe strong enough and early enough for CAA to cool us off and get us a few inches at least before moisture leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NAM is just starting to get our super storm on its radar, at the extreme end of the NAM at hour 84 it has the low maybe 100 miles further south than depicted on the same frame of the 0Z GFS, and also has the low a few millibars stronger than the GFS depicts for the same frame. I'm going to be really interested to see how the NAM handles this over the next few model runs... I'm optimistic though. I'll take anything this year even slushy 3 inch backside snow that freezes to crunchy snow in the cold that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Oh I haven't given up hope for the "super" storm. It's not terribly far off at all. Just popping in to say hello to some folks from my second home. Go to Tennessee multiple times a year. I see you're from knoxville. I don't know if you drink beer but my favorite beer is made in knoxville. The Blackhorse Brewery. Shame I have to drive to knoxville to get it since they can't ship it to me. If ya get a chance try it if you haven't already. Anyways love the state. Take care guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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