RedSky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Katodog ALERT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yes, please! I love the concept of it backing towards the coast while it's strengthening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Oh boy. Euro is insane. 12+ ABE. Spots of 12-18 by philly Sent from my iPhone Super nice. Should be real snow not like the bricks I've been shoveling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 At the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Going out to garage to put gas in my new snowblower!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Really glad the Euro showed this for more than one run and trended better for us - now I hope we see big solutions from the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Read it and weep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 And that's based on 10:1 ratios...... What are we looking at here 12 ? 15? Boy oh boy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 am I reading that map correctly 12+ for Berks as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 36" on the conservative Eurowx map for extreme southeast Bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Read it and weep euro4.png Lol...only tears of joy! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Awesome run for northeast of PHL. We get screwed out here in Miller Bs, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What the unholy fook? Any pros out there want to weigh in on this? I can't see this verifying if it does Philly area is shut down for a week and we're talking roof cave ins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Means really nothing but TWC/Tom Niziol going a little nuts over the new Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Means really nothing but TWC/Tom Niziol going a little nuts over the new Euro... I would pay to be a fly in the room when JB sees the Euro... He might just go nova... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is a fly home type of storm, right Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would pay to be a fly in the room when JB sees the Euro... He might just go nova... $$$$..new subscriptions in his mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth. Not a met but I had the thought "Okay, everybody stay calm, it's one run of one model". Yeah, right...lol. The thing is all the models have the storm at this point...keeping my fingers crossed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCEDBY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOMEINTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS ITAPPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS THESTRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHATAPPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE ITEMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. WITH AT LEASTTWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, ITCOULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS ISPROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORESOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGERALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED AWESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRENDALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. ACOMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THELARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would pay to be a fly in the room when JB sees the Euro... He might just go nova...IF you were a fly in that room...you would likely land on his "pile" of excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol...only tears of joy! Sent from my iPhone Holy Wow!! Tears of joy ... hand me another box of tissues don't tease us Euro or is your Trough really that sharp?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth. March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 More of the bipolar nature of the models this winter... Let see if this holds through another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME INTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS THE STRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. WITH AT LEAST TWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, IT COULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS IS PROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED A WESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING TREND ALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. Basically the Euro is fantasyland then... The other models are much less for our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth. dont even need a met to do that. this is a miller B, they have really sharp cutoffs. Philly is going to be right on the border with regard to that. Just look at DC on the Euro and you can get a good idea. Now there is a myth that MIller B's are never good for Philly area, that isn't true, it is just usually a sweat either way. As for NYC east---wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not a met but I had the thought "Okay, everybody stay calm, it's one run of one model". Yeah, right...lol. The thing is all the models have the storm at this point...keeping my fingers crossed.... Lol umm this sounds reasonable yes one model run not so sure though the Euro is known for giving us phantom dream runs like the NAM... hey pressure still 29.16 so maybe this storm sets up a 50/50 low to block just some thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 dont even need a met to do that. this is a miller B, they have really sharp cutoffs. Philly is going to be right on the border with regard to that. Just look at DC on the Euro and you can get a good idea. Now there is a myth that MIller B's are never good for Philly area, that isn't true, it is just usually a sweat either way. As for NYC east---wow. The Euro can shift 50 miles east and we'd still be 12"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth. dont even need a met to do that. this is a miller B, they have really sharp cutoffs. Philly is going to be right on the border with regard to that. Just look at DC on the Euro and you can get a good idea. Now there is a myth that MIller B's are never good for Philly area, that isn't true, it is just usually a sweat either way. As for NYC east---wow. Easily could provide more insight than the majority posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Euro can shift 50 miles east and we'd still be 12"+... yes, agreed, but right now it is only the Euro shows this and I promise you with a MIller B there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere. Anyone (mets included) who feel confident in saying where that will be at this point is being foolish. I think right now NYC and East look pretty good for a very significant snowfall, and for our region we should certainly be on guard for something substantial, while realizing that we could still get fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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