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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Is the Euro that bad?

No its not bad. After glacing at weatherbell, it's pretty cold. Coast changes to rain but barely. City is close to all frozen but not quite..would have to check soundings.

Prob 3-6" nyc and more for parts of nnj/hv. 2-5" LI.

Total precip

.8-.9 nyc

1-1.25"+ nassau on east

Most of nnj .5-.75..... .3-.5 nw of there. Not getting too specific bc it's silly to take these number verbatim...and I'm half asleep.

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Not all areas... NW Of i-95 is mostly frozen.

Didn't say all areas mostly frozen. Said all areas get heavy thump of snow, then rain. Inland burb surface temps go above freezing during event also. The degree of frozen will of course vary. Fairly tight precip gradient with 0.5" qpf over western and northern burbs to 1.5" qpf over parts of LI.

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Didn't say all areas mostly frozen. Said all areas get heavy thump of snow, then rain. Inland burb surface temps and 850 go above freezing during event also. The degree of frozen will of course vary. Fairly tight precip gradient with 0.5" qpf over western and northern burbs to 1.5" qpf over parts of LI.

Ehh according to weatherbell..a lot of the nearby suburbs including nyc only make it to 0 to +1c at 850mb. Surface has always lookd a little warm but it's prob not rain in the nearby burbs.

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No its not bad. After glacing at weatherbell, it's pretty cold. Coast changes to rain but barely. City is close to all frozen but not quite..would have to check soundings.

Prob 3-6" nyc and more for parts of nnj/hv. 2-5" LI.

Total precip

.8-.9 nyc

1-1.25"+ nassau on east

Most of nnj .5-.75..... .3-.5 nw of there. Not getting too specific bc it's silly to take these number verbatim...and I'm half asleep.

Since you've given approx totals have any for CNJ area?
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I'll bet that those EURO wx maps don't count precip as snow if it falls with a surface above 32 degrees when in reality you can easily have heavy wet accumulating snow at 33-34 degrees, which is in fact what you get on the EURO for a good portion of the storm. There's also a couple inches of snow before temps even go above freezing, not sure why those maps have less than 1" for NYC...

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I'll bet that those EURO wx maps don't count precip as snow if it falls with a surface above 32 degrees when in reality you can easily have heavy wet accumulating snow at 33-34 degrees, which is in fact what you get on the EURO for a good portion of the storm. There's also a couple inches of snow before temps even go above freezing, not sure why those maps have less than 1" for NYC...

 

It doesn't. WxBell map shows more, but that is often overdone. Either way, not going to accumulate much in the city verbatim that run...

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Temps

Ewgdef0.png

Those surface temps are basically after the precip shuts off...or is in the process of shutting off. The 0c line briefly makes it up to 287 at hr 42 before crashing back down. Most of the area south of that for the exception of central nj is 0 to +1 c at 850 and surface temps 33 to 35 (35 near the city and on LI).
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Those surface temps are basically after the precip shuts off...or is in the process of shutting off. The 0c line briefly makes it up to 287 at hr 42 before crashing back down. Most of the area south of that for the exception of central nj is 0 to +1 c at 850 and surface temps 33 to 35 (35 near the city and on LI).

 

GdhQokh.png

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The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levels

Not worried about freezing rain at all for nyc. If we had an arctic airmass in place or a retreating one, I'd be more inclined to agree.

But I agree with the other part.

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The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levels

Do you mean Manhattan only or are you including Brooklyn and Queens and the other boroughs?

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The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levels

In and around our areas (especially the metro areas), it's always tough to get freezing rain to accumulate (thankfully).....but when it does, it is usually following very cold weather when we have cold, dry ground and it starts freezing drizzling. I would think that with this system, if it changes to frozen precip other than snow, the freezing rain would have a very tough time accumulating (again, thankfully) on top of a slushy, wet snow. The danger it seems would be if the freezing rain occurred first and started as freezing drizzle
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I don't think the city gets any freezing rain out of this. The heavy stuff will be snow then rain/sleet/snow mix probably to rain. Still looks close to mostly frozen for nyc. The 36 degree temps is when the precip shuts off.

BL HAS ZERO TO DO WITH YOU NOT GETTING SNOW

Hour 36 is not SNOW

850`S ARE PLUS 1

925 `S ARE PLUS 1

 

You are snowing at 48 - But you are probably raining at 36 .

 

Never look at your BL with storms like this , totally irrelevant . Its the mid levels on the Euro that hurt you .

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Upton has really jumped on the snow train tonight, here is LGA's forecast...the 02z start time may be too early though, 04-06z is more reasonable

KLGA 231139Z 2312/2412 32009KT P6SM SKC

FM231600 VRB06KT P6SM FEW200

FM231800 24008KT P6SM BKN200

FM240000 22009KT P6SM SCT020 OVC040

FM240200 22007KT 2SM -SN BR BKN020 OVC040

FM240400 VRB06KT 1SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC015

TEMPO 2407/2411 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC004

FM241100 02010KT 1SM FZRASNPL BR OVC005

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