GD0815 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 yeah, the NAM tends to always have a rogue run a day or two before the storm, and there are still a lot of temperature issues near 95. but it is fun to look at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Juiced up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Juiced up: It has more moisture but we didn't get Nam'd. Don't know where you got that from? It's still a mess even heading up into New England. A front end dump would be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Definitely wouldn't change over a NAM run but it is definitely wetter than previous runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is supportive of a 3-6" event.....3" closer to the city and closer to the 6" SW into PA.....Right now it supports Upton and mount Holly's calls perfectly (3-4" for most).....Its basically a front end dump of snow and then done...as the low is crossing over areas and in a position where it would usually throw back a lot of moisture, there is none to be found as it moves off wuickly Yeh the 1st 6 hours at KNYC look to be snow 3 to 4 inches look possible off that run . The next 6 hours look to be RAIN SLEET SNOW . It never really gets that warm . The back end is just some light snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Definitely wouldn't change over a NAM run but it is definitely wetter than previous runs.... NAM is often too wet, so chop totals by 20-30% and you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is often too wet, so chop totals by 20-30% and you're good. Its not wet , its just not warm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Its not wet , its just not warm at all. I meant QPF wise. It's a colder solution for sure. If it predicts an inch of QPF, cut to .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This run of the NAM is actual not as wet as the last run, yet snow totals are doubled. (It's a colder run) : 18z 00z uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Haha Snowlover, I had them reversed. While it is obviously colder, it is also wetter. Can't explain myself there other than the fact that I was flat out wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM looks like a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM great front end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll take the RGEM/NAM combo and run! I think I think a high end advisory event (3"+) is looking likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM great front end . NYC is snow 5-11Z or so....it also hints at a back end shot although it shows it as RASN right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM looks like a nice hit i would lock that up and never look back in a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think this will end up being a quick thump of good snow to 33f and drizzle/dryslot. 80% snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NYC is snow 5-11Z or so....it also hints at a back end shot although it shows it as RASN right now. Knocking on the door at 4z - Wall of snow til 10z 11-12 Ice . What`s left over is some rain - but not a lot Think a lot of the model see at least 4 at KNYC to start . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Anyone doing the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is an interesting panel from the RGEM. It shows it as rain (turning to snow on Long Island on the next panel but not west of there), but if this is snow, it could add another couple inches on (though the front end dumps usually seem to work out much better than anything at the end) : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS? About 2-4 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 gfs is pretty warm...similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is an interesting panel from the RGEM. It shows it as rain (turning to snow on Long Island on the next panel but not west of there), but if this is snow, it could add another couple inches on (though the front end dumps usually seem to work out much better than anything at the end) : 22z to 0z its snowing from the city east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 About 2-4 inches of snow probably closer to 2 for the city, warm for a lot of of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS precip shield is much better for us up here North of the city than the 12 and 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What do you know...the GFS shows another possible scenario...AGAIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Back end for the 2- 3 hours across the island . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS precip shield is much better for us up here North of the city than the 12 and 18z runs Looks like 4 to 6 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 22z to 0z its snowing from the city eastWhat would be the reason why the model would show snow east on Long Island and rain for northern NJ (even as heavier precip passes over the same area in NNJ)? I guess the best dynamics work their way in once you head a bit further east and the low strengthens moving NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 00zGFS 18zGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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