Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It pretty much assumes no limit to the atmosphere, thats why it generates 5.00 liquid sometimes 60 hours out in snowstorms, to the NAM the atmosphere is neverendingly convective.

 

I remember it had a run for the March 1-2nd, 2009 noreaster where it went ballistic with like 15-24 inch projections up and down the Phi-NYC corridor.  It went nuts for the Feb 2013 blizzard too (showing 6 in. QPF in some spots).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To keep the bar fairly low, the 18z GFS gave NYC 0.03" qpf. On a more serious note, if the last storm was representative, the GFS eventually moved aggressively toward the ECMWF with timing that would make tomorrow's 12z run perhaps the crucial one. I don't think one will be able to make much of any shift this evening, though one would like to see the 6z run also continue such a shift, should it occur.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can not say that I'm the least bit surprised. The GFS always does this. Normally the first model to pick up on a storm before losing it and then the last one to bring it back. I'll never forget how awful it was with Sandy, trying to back it into Maine 72 hours out while the Euro was into VA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Imho, there's no way that kicker is strong enough to shunt that strong a storm east like that. I've seen this set up before with this song and dance.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

I should clarify, a storm that becomes the behemoth that the GFS is predicting with a ridge this sharp on the East Coast is not getting shunted ots by that kicker.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I should clarify, a storm that becomes the behemoth that the GFS is predicting with a Ridge this sharpen the East Coast is not getting shunted ots by that kicker.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

Was about to clarify that for you. Completely agree. The GFS is not a sheared out mess. It's a big storm that just gets kicked way to easily.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RGEM only runs to 48, although I thought there might be an extended frame to 54, but it's generally only a product out to 48.

Not your classic pre snowstorm setup.  A 1023 high sliding east of NJ and a 1014 high 600 miles east of Hudson Bay ridging eastward.

If that don't tell you this is going to have to be a dynamic cooling event snow event I don't know what does.  Thread the needle folks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...