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robertgny

Potential coastal storm 1/26-28

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Is this an evening no or morning event

 

Right now, it's late evening into early morning, but if it trends more favorably it would probably last for a good bit of the day on Tuesday

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If the Euro holds or trends even more favorably then confidence increases greatly if not then just the opposite.

Still time for change.

 

I was comparing it earlier to 2/25/99, to me it looks like a more west version of that, the ridge out west is further west and the system is captured a bit earlier, nobody west of the Hamptons saw much with that, I think this event could hit fairly good for all of Suffolk county, west of there I think we may be relying on energy from the merging in vort, those can deliver 3-4 inches easily in these setups at times.

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The UKMET gives snow and narrowly misses hitting NYC hard, ERN LI does get hit, a 75 mile shift and its a world of difference.

 

 

close and usual UKMET error argues a bit west but time will tell/  Great trends today.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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Not a bad looking sounding for Eastern MASS  this run. Blizzard conditions with gusts near hurricane force.

 

attachicon.gifSND.gif

That's a great looking sounding! Heavy wind blown snow. 

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It seems like there's a good consensus that the storm will be very strong, and that there will be sufficient cold air. A 50-75 mile shift (which is definitely in the range of possibility due to the recent trending) would smash NYC and its immediate surrounding areas. 

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1ST   GUESS WILL BE  HUGE

 

Any specific analogs for this one.  Jan 25, 2000?  Feb 2013?

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I'd watch the overrunning potential for this area in the SSE mid-level flow as the system develops off Virginia, the high is well positioned to the north and we could see snow break out in that setup as evidenced in this frame right here

 

ukmet12_QQ500.10.gif?t=1422118884

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Any specific analogs for this one. Jan 25, 2000? Feb 2013?

I liked snowgoose's analog of 2/99 but further west.

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I would like to see another 50-75 mile shift west, if not, it is going to be pretty painful watching places just east of the city getting a blizzard while the city west get much less especially west of the city.

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12Z Summary (NYC) 

 

Timing : Monday evening - Tuesday morning

 

 

NAM: >8"  (LI / SNE Crushed)

GFS : 0 - Trace  (LI  / SNE special)

GEFS: >2" (LI / SNE special)

UKMET: >4"  (LI / NSE crushed)

GGEM: >5" (LI / SNE crushed)

GGEM ENSEMBLES:

ECM:

ECM Ensembles:

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ANALOGS      Break out the KU    2  volumes books

 

     
8-10 FEB 1969   the Lindays storm  
5-7 FEB  1978   .. Enough said 

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There is a time to  go woof and time NOT tooo

JAN 23-24   Not    

this one ?  woof

KNOWING the difference  doesnt make  me anti snow 

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I would like to see another 50-75 mile shift west, if not, it is going to be pretty painful watching places just east of the city getting a blizzard while the city west get much less especially west of the city.

 

I need more of a shift.

Not expeting much of anything in my area.

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I was comparing it earlier to 2/25/99, to me it looks like a more west version of that, the ridge out west is further west and the system is captured a bit earlier, nobody west of the Hamptons saw much with that, I think this event could hit fairly good for all of Suffolk county, west of there I think we may be relying on energy from the merging in vort, those can deliver 3-4 inches easily in these setups at times.

Where can I find more information about that analog?

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There is a time to go woof and time NOT tooo

JAN 23-24 Not

this one ? woof

KNOWING the difference doesnt make me anti snow

How much further west if any do you think it trends?

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Just looked at the 500mb map of the Lindsay storm DT it looks amazingly similar

Both of those storms did have big impacts on NJ, not sure of exact amounts in NJ, if anyone has them please post them.

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ANALOGS      Break out the KU    2  volumes books

 

     

8-10 FEB 1969   the Lindays storm  

5-7 FEB  1978   .. Enough said 

Serious company 5-7 1978, best storm i have ever seen, nothing close

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Is this going to come any west to impact our NJ area or should we stop looking

Some of the models do impact NJ, especially the eastern half. It is just a matter of how big the impacts will be.

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Hopefully the models trend more for the earlier negative tilt. That's what will trap the low from going out to sea and force it north, and develop a CCB as the low closes off. Right now on most models it happens a little too late for NYC but the trends are encouraging. 

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Both of those storms did have big impacts on NJ, not sure of exact amounts in NJ, if anyone has them please post them.

Ask and u shall receive

ff82eb6f8cfde0a2b1bc896fa9b177d8.jpg

69a3512d12b4521cff987ba9f6c5f3a1.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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ANALOGS Break out the KU 2 volumes books

8-10 FEB 1969 the Lindays storm

5-7 FEB 1978 .. Enough said

Just pulled out my KU volume 2. Page 451 and 495 for those playing along.

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