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Potential coastal storm 1/26-28


robertgny

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I suggested in the other forum on Saturday's event that a 'psuedo' and temporary  -NAO could evolve form that storm.   It does go near 50/50 after passage and with the this one  following so closely behind, we could pull it off.     GFSx has 9" for us, 1/26-27.   btw. GFS clobbers everyone from VA. to our area by Feb. 06.

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Love it news 12 Long Island. Rain Saturday (maybe a little snow) dry monday. Cold next week. If this were to completely verify this winter is in the running for most miserable. I would put chances of this happening at about 25%

(They just updated to show snow monday. Not sure why they weren't showing it before)

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Even as is the Euro is a solid 1"-3" snowfall for Monday.

 

People really need to temper their expectations. Not every year or every storm will be 2010, 2011 or last year.

The forecast state of the teleconnections, especially the lack of blocking, argues for a quick moving system. If the guidance is right, it should be quite a bit more energetic than the clipper that departed this morning. Nevertheless, something closer to the 12z ECMWF solution than the 12z GFS solution is probably more likely for the NYC Metro Area and nearby portions of NJ, NY, and CT.

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Doesn't the EURO usually struggle with these kind of events? I believe the GFS usually does better, could be wrong tho..

The euro has dominated the last few years in comparison to the GFS... The thanksgiving storm this past year is a perfect example, euro barely budged for 4 days prior while GFS wobbled all over the place

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18z NAM at the end of its run but it certainly looks pretty good. I'm not sure what sort of bias would come into play here as this is not your typical amped up phase job. I'm hard pressed to remember a similar storm. Typically these things dye off and redevelop offshore as they cross the Apps. In this case it's almost like a WAA snow which transfers.

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

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18z NAM at the end of its run but it certainly looks pretty good. I'm not sure what sort of bias would come into play here as this is not your typical amped up phase job. I'm hard pressed to remember a similar storm. Typically these things dye off and redevelop offshore as they cross the Apps. In this case it's almost like a WAA snow which transfers.

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

 

I think this will hit decently to our south, we will get something but probably not as good as PHL or SNJ will do.

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Mark my word... This will give significant to major accumulations around north of dc to probably around extreme snj. Advisory-watch snows around phl the rest of us will just bicker as we watch this go south , in shorter terms ( your hopes shud be at like 4 right now, don't put your hopes to high for this one)

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18z NAM at the end of its run but it certainly looks pretty good. I'm not sure what sort of bias would come into play here as this is not your typical amped up phase job. I'm hard pressed to remember a similar storm. Typically these things dye off and redevelop offshore as they cross the Apps. In this case it's almost like a WAA snow which transfers.

 

 

 

1/20/2000 came to mind as a similar event.

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Mark my word... This will give significant to major accumulations around north of dc to probably around extreme snj. Advisory-watch snows around phl the rest of us will just bicker as we watch this go south , in shorter terms ( your hopes shud be at like 4 right now, don't put your hopes to high for this one)

 

The setup at 500 and the NAM's positioning right now relative to its usual bias at 72-84 and the other models to me suggests exactly that...I don't think DC does well but SE PA and PHL very well might...if it were not for the system Saturday I think this could have been a monster and would have turned up the coast but it probably won't due to the baroclinic zone getting shoved east.

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