psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not catching a break today. Euro moved north with the vort and slp. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Maybe. Comparing h5 from 0z last night was a step backwards. Doesn't make me feel good that the GFS did also. I didn't look at 0z.. I have yet to see a run with a legit consolidated vort solution though. Even the good ones were odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I didn't look at 0z.. I have yet to see a run with a legit consolidated vort solution though. Even the good ones were odd. Just going off the basic rule of thumb with slp track doesn't give me a lot of confidence even if it does light up. Obviously there is plenty of time for improvements. Just noting the trend from yesterday to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not catching a break today. Euro moved north with the vort and slp. If the 500 was a little more consolidated, its track isn't too bad but because of the messy 500, can never get a low to pop over VA like we need to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If the 500 was a little more consolidated, its track isn't too bad but because of the messy 500, can never get a low to pop over VA like we need to score. Very true. The strung out double low thing is usually a sign that the model is having a hard time pinpointing. We saw it a couple weeks ago when it looked like days of light snow but as time grew near it was a more consolidated/discrete event. I'm sure a strung out light event is very possible but reality will likely look a lot different than what we see today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, this one looks bad. Not gonna give up yet. On to Feb 1-3. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 next I think Ji already started a thread for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, this one looks bad. Not gonna give up yet. On to Feb 1-3. Sigh Yeah, not quite going to give it up yet, but it's now only ~4 days out. Guess we'll have to see how it is modeled once the Fri/Sat event gets into real-time. Just stunning how bad a turn the guidance has taken for us in the past couple of days or even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, not quite going to give it up yet, but it's now only ~4 days out. Guess we'll have to see how it is modeled once the Fri/Sat event gets into real-time. Just stunning how bad a turn the guidance has taken for us in the past couple of days or even less. and it's for that reason I ain't giving up on anything yet as we've gotten closer to every event the vorts have been pushed south and/or compressed, and I think the seasonal pattern will repeat....and if I'm wrong, I remain confident in saying what we see today will not be what we see on Sunday's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 euro still has a better solution then the GFS track. SLP actually gets suppressed as it develops a bit and ends up ESE of us. GFS track gives up no shot. We are not in a good spot but its still close enough to be worth tracking for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next" Valley low. real low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Valley low. real low. were at the bottom of the Grand Canyon bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 were at the bottom of the Grand Canyon bro We are the earth that's beneath the Grand Canyon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Valley low. real low. I admit, I LOL'ed at this. And the comment that you responded to. Ji's comment sounds like it could be made into a country western type song (not that I'm a huge fan of that music)...just need the right music to set the words to! The old stereotype that they're all about how everything goes wrong. Heard a joke that if you play a country western song backward, your dog lives, your truck starts up, and your wife comes back to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It just snowed yesterday. Grip yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next" Please tell me more........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO has a snowstorm Feb 1st, lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO has a snowstorm Feb 1st, lock it up No more room. I have a whole storage facility of Euro 7-10 day snow that I have already "locked up". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It just snowed yesterday. Grip yourselves. clippers like lake effect dont really count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We are the earth that's beneath the Grand Canyon. More like the Mariana Trench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO has a snowstorm Feb 1st, lock it up This is the one that I am watching... There should already be a Threat Thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This is the one that I am watching... There should already be a Threat Thread for it. There is! Oh, wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 clippers like lake effect dont really count yeah this doesn't count as anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 clippers like lake effect dont really count Au contraire! Having grown up in northeast Ohio experiencing many lake effect events, this is sadly mis-informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next" You were too quick to uncancel winter on your Facebook page. Think of your followers next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 yeah this doesn't count as anything Not very smart to be walking around out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 yeah this doesn't count as anything I'd be pissed if I got that and then went 3-4 months with no more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'd be pissed if I got that and then went 3-4 months with no more snow.Living in Buffalo would probably suck enough the snow wouldn't matter that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.