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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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No reason to NOT believe the NAM thermal profiles this close in unless they are off their rocker as compared to other guidance.

 

They were definitely somewhat warmer than the RGEM....and the previous 12z NAM. I usually want to see agreement with other short term models and also some consistency before using the NAM.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

 

Though at 15z Saturday - there's a lot of QPF that falls and it's still <0c in the column around Hartford. Looks like that spike comes in an hour or 2 later around 750mb. 

 

I feel confident that almost all of CT gets a several hour (at least) icy mix period with pingers and ZR. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

 

A lull or at least a break in intensity may happen after the front end too. You are going to mix regardless, but you'll get a decent dumping.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

 

 

I think you are severely under-estimating the amoutn of mixing...just embrace the sleet. You've never been one to shy away from it. You know how easy it sleets there.

 

There will still be plenty of snow on the front and back end and the sleet will help your pack last.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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I think you are severely under-estimating the amoutn of mixing...just embrace the sleet. You've never been one to shy away from it. You know how easy it sleets there.

 

There will still be plenty of snow on the front and back end and the sleet will help your pack last.

Fish is my favorite dish

Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher  12m

Latest thoughts on what will be falling from the sky tomorrow. Begins 4-7a from south to north.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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Though at 15z Saturday - there's a lot of QPF that falls and it's still <0c in the column around Hartford. Looks like that spike comes in an hour or 2 later around 750mb. 

 

I feel confident that almost all of CT gets a several hour (at least) icy mix period with pingers and ZR. 

I'm drawing the mix line basically 10 miles north of 84 west of BDL to 10 miles west of 91 basically, anywhere SE of that mixes I think. NW hills might ping for a little while, but I'm pretty confident in 90%+ snow up there.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

 

You are going to mix.  You are going to get a good dump of 5"+ of snow.  Those two things are a given. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
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Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

 

Maybe I don't know how to read a skew T, but i see one 3-hour frame that shows that at hr 24, which is also in between the front-end dump and the back-end tail. And that's for my location.

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