ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Can we please specify which storm for which ensemble idea? The first or 2nd one is rain to snow for all? 1st storm is the one with ptype issues currently...the 2nd is a lot more favorable for snow to the coast, but given how far out it is, it doesn't matter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's a pretty good clustering for Saturday...that said, lets see it 2-3 runs in a row before getting too bullish on a system. IDK Will that is pretty convincing to me at 108 for Ens. 2-3 more runs would be inside 72, have we come to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice to finally see some excitement in here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well this is why we were saying to wait until after the clipper. You may be able to recall that if you could get by the insanity posts. Best look this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't like the first one east of I 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 IDK Will that is pretty convincing to me at 108 for Ens. 2-3 more runs would be inside 72, have we come to that? For a thread-the-needle system? Absolutely IMHO. I want to see very good agreemnt inside of 84 hours on those. Given the relatively compact precip shield, a 75 mile wiggle either direction means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 regarding the first storm, I'm wondering if any of the Mets think the north-west trend will continue on the European ensemble and operational models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I gotta say, I can't recall such model swings in the day 10 timeframe. Something seems weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I gotta say, I can't recall such model swings in the day 10 timeframe. Something seems weird. Back to ball-shriveling cold around D10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Back to ball-shriveling cold around D10-12 Yeah. I mean it's normal to have swings this far out...but it's pretty volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 UKMET keeps Saturday's QPF shield south of KORF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 For a thread-the-needle system? Absolutely IMHO. I want to see very good agreemnt inside of 84 hours on those. Given the relatively compact precip shield, a 75 mile wiggle either direction means a lot. no I mean that there is a close by intense system, not precip types, ****e precip types are never slam dunks on the coast especially unless its zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 UKMET keeps Saturday's QPF shield south of KORF lol Wow.!!! light years apart from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's a weenie EC ensemble run for a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 regarding the first storm, I'm wondering if any of the Mets think the north-west trend will continue on the European ensemble and operational models? Not by much, I don't think I can see this taking a track much NW of say ORF-central-ern LI that is probably the furthest west this is going...the shortwave simply does not amplify or go negative early enough down in the gulf states or near there for it to go more west...also that incoming energy from Canada is an issue too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's a weenie EC ensemble run for a +NAO. show you how other teleconnections can be the main driver and we can't necessarily put all of our eggs in the NAO basket. but it also makes me want to tread a little bit more carefully here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 As fast a flow as we have with no blocking..I just don't see how a hit is going to happen on Saturday. Would seem to me the trend to expect would be east from here on out. There's a kicker and no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Boy, that ensemble look is encouraging. Backs up the threats. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's a weenie EC ensemble run for a +NAO. not saying its the same but we discussed the pos nao on 2/6/13 1-22-05,, its the transient blocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah Steve, I think the chances have definitely increased at some type of system within 150 miles of the BM for Saturday...that is fair to say. There isn't much room for this to go west, so I agree with snowgoose that this will have trouble getting much further west than a coastal hugger track...and it could certainly end up east of optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah Steve, I think the chances have definitely increased at some type of system within 150 miles of the BM for Saturday...that is fair to say. There isn't much room for this to go west, so I agree with snowgoose that this will have trouble getting much further west than a coastal hugger track...and it could certainly end up east of optimal. That would be all I would say too but man even though its farther out that second system has legs (just my WAG) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah Steve, I think the chances have definitely increased at some type of system within 150 miles of the BM for Saturday...that is fair to say. There isn't much room for this to go west, so I agree with snowgoose that this will have trouble getting much further west than a coastal hugger track...and it could certainly end up east of optimal. Here's a question: given the goal posts as you just stated for Saturday, how could either extreme impact the atmospheric scaffolding left behind for "storm two," Tuesday's threat -- though a week out -- that The Weather Channel just ominously named Winter Storm Jesus? I'm assuming a more tucked solution doesn't do too much to the jenga tower, but I'm curious on what happens if it tugs off further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah Steve, I think the chances have definitely increased at some type of system within 150 miles of the BM for Saturday...that is fair to say. There isn't much room for this to go west, so I agree with snowgoose that this will have trouble getting much further west than a coastal hugger track...and it could certainly end up east of optimal. East of optimal can be a good thing for the forgotten folks in the Southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 For a thread-the-needle system? Absolutely IMHO. I want to see very good agreemnt inside of 84 hours on those. Given the relatively compact precip shield, a 75 mile wiggle either direction means a lot. This is one where even a track over the Cape may not reach very far west with precip. I think it looks good for you guys down there. You know the worm will and is turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Here's a question: given the goal posts as you just stated for Saturday, how could either extreme impact the atmospheric scaffolding left behind for "storm two," Tuesday's threat -- though a week out -- that The Weather Channel just ominously named Winter Storm Jesus? I'm assuming a more tucked solution doesn't do too much to the jenga tower, but I'm curious on what happens if it tugs off further east. Right now, it doesn't look like the 2nd system will be impacted greatly by the first given the relatively narrow goal posts. But if the first system was to slow down quite a bit, then it could create problems for the 2nd one amplifying. The 2nd system is more affected by that ridge out west. We'll see though, that 2nd system is so far out that there's like 10 different things that could muck it up. But "as modeled" right now on most guidance, it seems to have some wiggle room at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Back to ball-shriveling cold around D10-12 Cindy Fitzgibbons just threw her iPad across the studio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cindy Fitzgibbons just threw her iPad across the studioAnd I thought she had a sense of humor... Ensembles hint at another system around 2/3...low prob chance 1/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I would like to see more of the globals supporting these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think by Friday at 12z if the Euro still has it.. We can feel confident of at least something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think by Friday at 12z if the Euro still has it.. We can feel confident of at least something for me,it really depends on how locked in it is over the next several runs and whether or not some of the other models give more support. if everything breaks right I could see being confident by 12Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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