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ORH_wxman

Model Discussion for Late January into February

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This looks like that late Jan 2011 storm that brought like 15" to Ginxy and ENE.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

 

1/26/11? Earlier I think someone said that storm was a top analogue for Saturday.

 

1/27/2011 -

post-847-0-36523200-1421809665_thumb.jpg

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lol it was the least amped the entire time with this past storm.  

 

There were several ECM individual ensembles that look pretty close to that actually.  Low probability, but some time left to go.  That's why the EPS was so amped.

 

Weak system, the rule only applies to well developed storm systems although I have seen it work at times with weak ones its not as often.

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Only 6 hours ago it was in the DGEX territory.

The NAM is like an ensemble member.

 

Its like tossing up the weeniest member panel you can find, It is the model thread to discuss models, Don't think anyone in there right mind would spike footballs over it........... :)

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Well it is the model thread to discuss models, Don't think anyone in there right mind would spike footballs over it........... :)

You and Dendrite would like a bunch of the EURO ensemble members from 12z, haha. I'm just looking them over and was surprised how many were amped a bit.

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You and Dendrite would like a bunch of the EURO ensemble members from 12z, haha. I'm just looking them over and was surprised how many were amped a bit.

 

I saw them, And yes, Were not many bad ones in that cluster other then the far east or west ones

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Lol...12-20 for Boston on the gfs.

 

Pretty sharp cuttoff NW but a good trend nonetheless, 50-75 miles either way its a bomb or light snows

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This trough hums along at a rapid clip...very progressive flow which actually acts to help SNE in this solution, because it might try and tear northward if it weren't for the whole trough rocketing eastward as it intensifies and goes negative.

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And here comes peter cottontail with the Tuesday system. Could be some fun times ahead just around the corner.

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Pretty compact system, Will be haves and have nots and wont be far away

 

Small shift in track too will be a big deal, and you can bet a small shift in track is going to happen between now and the next 72 hours.

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