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Coastal low 1/24 can this get winter going?


Mitchell Gaines

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I should have stayed away while I had the chance. Ugh the humanity

Come on, Ralph ... you've been around long enough to know not to get interested in a storm unless:

 

A) Tony buys gas for the snowblower

B ) Wes says "he doesn't hate it", or ...

C) Ray books a flight home

 

;)

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NAM looks better?

 

I was just looking at it, I think we've been nam'd, lol. Brings in the precipitation earlier, around 10 pm Friday night, and ends it earlier, around 10 am Saturday, with the 850's and surface just cold enough, except for far SEPA and S.J.. A little wetter on the NW side too. I don't know if it will work, but it looks much better from here anyway.

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I was just looking at it, I think we've been nam'd, lol. Brings in the precipitation earlier, around 10 pm Friday night, and ends it earlier, around 10 am Saturday am, with the 850's and surface just cold enough, except for far SEPA and S.J.. A little wetter on the NW side too. I don't know if it will work, but it looks much better.

i was thinking the one way we might do well out of this storm is a setup similar to the eagles game storm of last december where we get under the CCB for a few hours of heavy snow before the changeover.  A longshot, to be sure, but I have a feeling that scenario plays out somewhere.  I do find that we do somewhat better in these snow to rain situations than when we are waiting for rain to changeover.

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i was thinking the one way we might do well out of this storm is a setup similar to the eagles game storm of last december where we get under the CCB for a few hours of heavy snow before the changeover.  A longshot, to be sure, but I have a feeling that scenario plays out somewhere.  I do find that we do somewhat better in these snow to rain situations than when we are waiting for rain to changeover.

 

I agree, and would love to see that happen. I also wouldn't mind if the temperature dropped a little more tonight - been stuck at 35F here.

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i was thinking the one way we might do well out of this storm is a setup similar to the eagles game storm of last december where we get under the CCB for a few hours of heavy snow before the changeover.  A longshot, to be sure, but I have a feeling that scenario plays out somewhere.  I do find that we do somewhat better in these snow to rain situations than when we are waiting for rain to changeover.

 

I'm kinda on the flip side. When "they" say it will change to rain at (for example)10pm I start hearing pings at 7:30 - 8 then rain shortly after.

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yeah, obviously not to the extreme of the december 2013 storm, but that general idea.

 

The Dec 2013 event was a frontogenetical band produced as a result of interaction with the high pressure and dry/cold air...this event will need to get sort of upper level jet induced front end heavy snow, its entirely possible for it to happen.  I am not impressed with the WAA push in the mid levels with this event since most locations remain west or near the 850 low, if moderate snow develops I think most of CNJ and the PHL metro can stay snow til as late as 13-14Z...if the snow gets in by 06-07Z there could be some good amounts...we'll need help from the jet dynamics though because we won't get it from WAA or interaction with a cold high.

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RGEM has a 997mb low over Ocean City Maryland and 1+ inch liquid for most of the full region by 36 hours, looking at the black and white maps.  Need to wait for the better maps to see how much precip falls before the changeover.

 

513_100.gif

 

 

 

 

Precip type map at 36 hours, changeover made it rather far inland as one would expect with the low position.

 

00_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_03

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The more inland was expected...there's nothing preventing an even more inland / warmer track.

 

So my money's on the continued more warmer / inland track...but still a big hit for interior areas.

 

 

The pattern is too progressive and the shortwave doesn't go negative down in the gulf states, that's the reason this won't go much west of this, it doesn't amplify til it's well up the coast and by then it's zooming NE in progressive flow

 

 

well, it's looking more juiced up and slightly closer to the coast than 36 hours ago.  I see this almost all the time when nearing an event, and without a strong high anywhere to be found.    It's a good / bad thing. 

 

The less progressive Saturday's storm..the colder / dryer that Monday's event will probably be. 

 

It's going to be quite a dynamic battle around CNJ with this rain / snow line early Saturday morning.  So many factors in play. 

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