hazwoper Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Disaster is more like it. Looks like maybe an inch thump then quick changeover to rain. 850's scorch all the way up to Allentown. The precip maps showed them changing over everyone to mix all the way to Allentown...unless i'm looking at the wrong one.. I_nw_r1_EST_2015012212_048.png Sorry, yes, you are correct. Still time....although those frame do show freezing/frozen NW of 95 (I know, I am reaching) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The RGEM tends to be west and warm...I remember last winter it was showing rain all the way to 81 for the 2/13 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The RGEM tends to be west and warm...I remember last winter it was showing rain all the way to 81 for the 2/13 event. Perhaps, but GFS looks similar as far as precip types go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sorry, yes, you are correct. Still time....although those frame do show freezing/frozen NW of 95 (I know, I am reaching) I'd feel way more comfortable up by your area. Yeah you guys may change over but should stay frozen throughout. Down here, the trend is looking more and more like another cold rain storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't know whether to go coating to 2 or 1 to 4 back home... I'll probably decide later based on the GGEM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 UKMET looks like it has a little more front end snow, but changes all the way to upper bucks over to rain... Looks like the warm air is winning out on 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A few things: 1. No Cold High up north 2. Marginal Cold in place to begin with ( NOT GOOD AT ALL WITH A SOUTHERN SYSTEM) 3. NAO+ means storm allowed to chug right up and out. 4. No Snow Pack 5. Above normal Ocean Temps 6. Look at how much cold air is behind our clipper here I remember Clippers bring the cold and it settles in setting up a snowstorm but not in this case. All of this screams a minor accumulation snow wise followed by mainly Rain for the I-95 south and east Thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM for north Bucks, Montco, West Chester, Berks and Lehigh Valley looks decent with several inches front end snow then a second half of mixed frozen. A cement mixer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro looks decent for some snow at least. I sometimes like to see setups with front end snow and then a changeover, they can overachieve snow wise especially if you get into some good banding, best recent example is the eagles game snowstorm last december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 ECM close to the GGEM, except less snow near Philly from warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm gonna tell people 1-4 back home. Maybe tighten that up tomorrow if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm gonna tell people 1-4 back home. Maybe tighten that up tomorrow if possible. Certainly not busting but isn't 1 - 4" a large range? I wouldn't say anything till later tonight then peg the standard 1 -3" - 2- 4" etc. Then again you're the Met and I'm not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Latest Wxsim text forecast with 12z runs Friday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind south-southwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet, and rain in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill around 24. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest around 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1inches Sunday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 28. Wind south-southeast around 3 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 31. Wind southwest around 5 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast. A chance of slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 22. Wind chill ranging from 12 to 22. Wind north around 11 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Certainly not busting but isn't 1 - 4" a large range? I wouldn't say anything till later tonight then peg the standard 1 -3" - 2- 4" etc. Then again you're the Met and I'm not... Personally I feel we limit ourselves when we use ridiculously small ranges. 1-2 inches is tiny and as we saw yesterday, makes for easy busts. We're not that good, especially 48 hours out. 1-4 is only a 3 inch range, which seems great for a higher total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro looks decent for some snow at least. I sometimes like to see setups with front end snow and then a changeover, they can overachieve snow wise especially if you get into some good banding, best recent example is the eagles game snowstorm last december. For north and west this is more the case but for the coastal plain/Philadelphia region they seem to underachieve more than overachieve especially with coastal storms with no cold air source. Typically the warm air comes in faster than modeled with a coastal storm and we changover earlier than planned. That December storm was more of the exception than the rule imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Latest Wxsim text forecast with 12z runs Friday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind south-southwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet, and rain in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill around 24. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest around 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1inches Sunday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 28. Wind south-southeast around 3 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 31. Wind southwest around 5 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast. A chance of slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 22. Wind chill ranging from 12 to 22. Wind north around 11 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. I imagine this is for Chester County which even sounds like a mess. So for Philly and local/far burbs it doesn't all that great as well....damn, can't we get a "real" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Personally I feel we limit ourselves when we use ridiculously small ranges. 1-2 inches is tiny and as we saw yesterday, makes for easy busts. We're not that good, especially 48 hours out. 1-4 is only a 3 inch range, which seems great for a higher total. Thing is if a 1 - 2" prediction totals goes 3.2"....no one really cares besides weenies especially during the day when things melt.. It's not really that catastrophic...again only for weenies measuring. Of course when it's a large storm the range extends. I'm not a big fan of the 5 -10"....8 -16"...and yes 10 - 20" around Philly. Max range should be within 4".....8 -12"....12 - 16"...etc. If people don't understand it's really difficult to predict those type of storms within range considering variables...screw'em. That's just my thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thing is if a 1 - 2" prediction totals goes 3.2"....no one really cares besides weenies especially during the day when things melt.. It's not really that catastrophic...again only for weenies measuring. Of course when it's a large storm the range extends. I'm not a big fan of the 5 -10"....8 -16"...and yes 10 - 20" around Philly. Max range should be within 4".....8 -12"....12 - 16"...etc. If people don't understand it's really difficult to predict those type of storms within range considering variables...screw'em. That's just my thinking... Yes, but as we saw, if 1-2 ends up 0.3... well, people are like, where is the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Im close to downgrading from my "first guess" but will decide after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I am already looking at the 240 EC, nice cold high to the north, If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yes, but as we saw, if 1-2 ends up 0.3... well, people are like, where is the snow? What's your parents' total snow fall this season? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 One interesting thing I noticed on the 12Z suite (non-Euro) is that there doesn't seem to be a great influx of east/south winds off the ocean over NJ. I'd assume that this is because the low is forcast to be somewhat strung out/ weak until it hits the VA maritimes. It's just that there is no cold air in the first place, that even as the storm pulls away and winds back to the NW and strengthen, there's no cold air over NY/PA to help us get back to frozen precip. So, I wonder if there isn't opportunity to get lucky here if the models are off by those surface temps to our north and west by a couple degrees. The air mass in place isn't cold for certain, but it wouldn't take much to be cold enough. I wonder if we're seeing warmer solutions today because we are losing the rad cooling aspect when this was progged to be a Saturday system instead of a Fri night system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's your parents' total snow fall this season? thanks 3.6" as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 One interesting thing I noticed on the 12Z suite (non-Euro) is that there doesn't seem to be a great influx of east/south winds off the ocean over NJ. I'd assume that this is because the low is forcast to be somewhat strung out/ weak until it hits the VA maritimes. It's just that there is no cold air in the first place, that even as the storm pulls away and winds back to the NW and strengthen, there's no cold air over NY/PA to help us get back to frozen precip. So, I wonder if there isn't opportunity to get lucky here if the models are off by those surface temps to our north and west by a couple degrees. The air mass in place isn't cold for certain, but it wouldn't take much to be cold enough. I wonder if we're seeing warmer solutions today because we are losing the rad cooling aspect when this was progged to be a Saturday system instead of a Fri night system. Well, you notice that its above freezing now... and tomorrow will be a bit warmer... and there is no air mass change after that before the storm moves in. It isn't a strong flow but its enough with no cold air. If there is no radiational cooling Friday night then it would make accums harder, if for example it started when it was still above freezing. There's always an opportunity to get lucky. I wouldn't bet on it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z NAM is very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z NAM is very warm. I don't think this surprises anyone...didn't even look yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z NAM is very warm. looks like 1-3 for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A few things: 1. No Cold High up north 2. Marginal Cold in place to begin with ( NOT GOOD AT ALL WITH A SOUTHERN SYSTEM) 3. NAO+ means storm allowed to chug right up and out. 4. No Snow Pack 5. Above normal Ocean Temps 6. Look at how much cold air is behind our clipper here I remember Clippers bring the cold and it settles in setting up a snowstorm but not in this case. All of this screams a minor accumulation snow wise followed by mainly Rain for the I-95 south and east Thoughts My thoughts are I wish you were wrong but I'm afraid you're right. I still think we could get more than an inch or two (at our latitude), but we'd have to get lucky. Recently there's been an up and down cycle of model runs spaced about a day and a half or two apart, first looking good for snow, then not so good, then good again. The last 24 hours has been a down period and I'll admit to a bit of pessimism at the moment. I don't expect any reversal of trends for this event because I don't know how we could get more cold air in here (especially at the critical upper levels). But I do reserve the right to adjust my expectations tomorrow :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 !8Z GFS is warmer than the NAM. Teleconnections and no cold HP cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z Euro has 5" on the ground at KMQS (Coatesville) at 7am Saturday morning with another 3" by 7pm Monday evening. It that shows (with the snowcover) AM lows of near 5 below zero the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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