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IsentropicLift

Potential Coastal Storm This Weekend

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I know it's early but if it happens What day is this for?? Im scheduled to have surgery on Mon the 26th and I really don't want it to be cancelled!! but I really want snow too!!

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It's a day 5 storm with potential. What's the harm? This is a hobby after all.

Sent from my iPhone

Upper Air Pattern doesn't support it reaching the benchmark - all precip stays south of the metro 

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Upper Air Pattern doesn't support it reaching the benchmark - all precip stays south of the metro

At this point, I agree. But, that could change. Models haven't exactly been great.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Upper Air Pattern doesn't support it reaching the benchmark - all precip stays south of the metro

18z GFS run did go north and that's great news considering we are 5 days away from the storm. No doubt the trends today have been in our favor for this potential snow threat, but you never know. well we will by Friday the latest

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If that trough is locked in like that over the east then getting snow will be inevitable. Even if they're mostly clippers we will see snow with this coming pattern.

Nice AO dip expected possibly the lowest of the winter which history suggests we get cold or snow within that timeframe.

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18z GFS run did go north and that's great news considering we are 5 days away from the storm. No doubt the trends today have been in our favor for this potential snow threat, but you never know. well we will by Friday the latest

what is going to change the overall upper air  pattern ?

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what is going to change the overall upper air pattern ?

we don't know yet that's why weather is unpredictable sir. Not one good meteorologist can dismiss this threat and that should tell you something. Weather is not exact science otherwise models would have cracked the mathematical code of having perfect predictions. We have to look out for trends. Everything trended north. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the 0z runs. There's a lot of time. I've seen storms move 500 miles north or south 3 days before the storm. We just don't know yet.

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18z nogaps show a big storm

honestly navgem not that I care for the model much but lately it's been on fire. It has been consistently better than the GFS the last couple of months that I can guarantee it!

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18z nogaps show a big storm

Are you sure?  I did not see it that way.  It does show a storm way out towards 120hrs but that's in the fantasy zone :)

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Are you sure?  I did not see it that way.  It does show a storm way out towards 120hrs but that's in the fantasy zone :)

thats what they are talkin about the day 5 storm - we should now for sure if this has any chance by the time the first flakes start falling on Wednesday

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honestly navgem not that I care for the model much but lately it's been on fire. It has been consistently better than the GFS the last couple of months that I can guarantee it!

No it hasn't. Its verification is not good (actually last behind the euro, ukmet, gfs, ggem, etc). Stop making things up Tony.

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FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE
EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

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thats what they are talkin about the day 5 storm - we should now for sure if this has any chance by the time the first flakes start falling on Wednesday

lol :)

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Guest Pamela

show me an AFD or any other professional outlet discussion that even mentions the NAV

 

Its been quite a while...but IIRC...NOGAPS was the *only* model to get the March 2001 event right...good snowstorm from Suffolk County north & east...basically light snow to the south & west...that has always stuck in my mind.

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Its been quite a while...but IIRC...NOGAPS was the *only* model to get the March 2001 event right...good snowstorm from Suffolk County north & east...basically light snow to the south & west...that has always stuck in my mind.

a lot of things stick in my mind about March 2001 Pamela and you can rest assured none of them are good since I spent it in the city and queens. Needless to say expecting 20 to 30 inches of snow and receiving barely five by storms end was a death blow. I'll never forget that feeling and the only thing that wiped that bitter taste was my marriage later that month

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