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Potential Coastal Storm This Weekend


IsentropicLift

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Doorman what synoptically in your opinion would favor a southern outcome

56 run thru all the GEFS SPAG guidance

and judge for yourself.....you can do it with ease

 

pick any chart then loop it---bingo you get to spot the trends

for the 24-25th time frame

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GEFS-SPAG&area=ATLANTIC&ps=area

 

Step thru the Images at 200mb 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F18%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_096_200_1176_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=18&param=200_1176_ht&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150120+18+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

remember this also

the Winter Flights and extra RAOB  ingest

should  make the data a bit more stable -imho

dm

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The SE Ridge has been there all month so far in the means due to the +AO. You are not seeing a transient

feature as the Euro and ensemble mean are just amplifying the SE Ridge yet again this month ahead of the

storm. That's why seasonal trends matter until they are reversed by a lasting pattern change. The passage

of this storm knocks it down for a while so the strong clipper behind it will have more cold to work with next week.

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png

 

 

 

The pattern right now has changed drastically from the Jan 1-12 period, such that a comparison would be apples to oranges. The AO and NAO were both fluctuating between +2 to +3 SD, the EPO was strongly negative, and the PNA averaging neutral to negative. These indicators support a ridge just offshore. Currently, we have a slightly negative AO/NAO, a positive PNA, and positive EPO. Actually the inverse pattern of January 1st-12th. The indices are all in opposite modalities and the 500mb pattern significantly different. The current regime does not support a SE-ridge.

 

2rcaozk.gif

 

 

2vtbaet.gif

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I can read a model just like everyone else synoptically or climatologically speaking what makes you think it goes south of current model guidance? Not trying to undermind you but I'm trying to see other than some gefs members being south why you think it comes south

56

 

Northern Jet stream...  pushing energy south

euro has this general idea on its

200mb chart ....  at 120hrs

 timing it exact...your guess is as good as mine

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_120.gif

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I can read a model just like everyone else synoptically or climatologically speaking what makes you think it goes south of current model guidance? Not trying to undermind you but I'm trying to see other than some gefs members being south why you think it comes south

He doesn't know...at least until CPC puts it in writing, so he can repost it here as his forecast and then add a trolling popcorn smiley to twist the knife a bit. DM has a lot riding on this winter after his stellar performance last winter. He has spent the past couple of weeks cherry picking not just models, but weird charts that no one ever uses to support his no snow call. Bygones on all of that. As of this Sunday, his streak is likely to come to an end.

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56

Northern Jet stream... pushing energy south

euro has this general idea on its

200mb chart ....

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_120.gif

So in your opinion the storm gets shunted south? Mid Atlantic special? The eps that I looked at had almost all of the lows inside the bm or right on top of it.

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Great trends today with the models, esp after such hostile patterns over the last several weeks.  Small steps..I wouldn't look at details much right now.  Trends with the upper air pattern @ 5h and then we'll worry about 850h and surface closer to the weekend.  Oh weekend rule?  :nerdsmiley:

 

Edit:  12z Euro and GFS 1-20-2015 for 72hrs...Fri 12z.... setup before storm... not bad... 50/50 low in place. 

   post-1996-0-98771300-1421801402_thumb.pn

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Actually there were 4 or 5 events where the coast was the battle ground..but all in all it was frigid during a bunch of these storms even at the coast.

 

The mid-December storm was a bit of a sloppy mix but some areas made out a bit better than expected as temps stayed below freezing a bit longer than expected.

The January storms were very cold.  February though we were really on the battleground for those, particularly the Post-SB storm and the mid-February biggie with the ice storm in between.

I'm looking forward to Ray updating his Winter Storm archive.  Would be great if he could input some radar loops as part of that archive.

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00z NAM gets heavy snow back to Western PA. It's super amped and a huge hit for the interior with ice from NYC to the PA line. Right where you want it at this range.

 

Usually I'd restrict any NAM 84 hour discussion to the banter thread, but since its in between runs in here I'll limit this to one post. 

 

f81-1.gif

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The surface at KNYC is 32 at hour 84

If there was a next frame to the NAM

Everyone would be flipping back to heavy snow and blizzard conditions would occur all the way to the coast.

The NAM surges the 850's N but once that SLP gets to about Asbury the winds turn NE and the whole column collapses .

Look at the VV the system is a beast.

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For a model at the end of it's range, that's a really intriguing look and that it's not out to sea, including a nice look at the 500mb chart Superstorm posted.  Perhaps it's just me but it looked very strange going from the 69h to 72h panels.  Precip shield looked like it got salted or something.

 

In a marginal pattern/so-so indices, this is a pretty healthy look right now.

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