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Potential Coastal Storm This Weekend


IsentropicLift

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show me an AFD or any other professional outlet discussion that even mentions the NAV

 

The only reason the NAVGEM ( which I believe is last in skill scoring ) solution is being thrown around is because the Euro OP and its ensembles have quasi rallied to it .

 

The Control has it and the ensembles are really close .

 

Saturn posted this

MT HOLLY .

 

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY

ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY

NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE

EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

 

 

So they are at the very least intrigued .

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The only reason the NAVGEM ( which I believe is last in skill scoring ) solution is being thrown around is because the Euro OP and its ensembles have quasi rallied to it .

The Control has it and the ensembles are really close .

Saturn posted this

MT HOLLY .

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY

ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY

NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE

EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

So they are at the very least intrigued .

cras has to be worse.
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Not scored .

i agree with you 100% about navgem being the worst model but you have to go back the last 2 months and I've been paying attention to this model particularly because it got the cutter right for Christmas Eve way before GFS, CMC got it. Ukmet looks like the best one for the track and euro is still the king imo. I certainly think the models will keep trending north especially the fact the euro control and its ensembles trended north... Let's see

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The only reason the NAVGEM ( which I believe is last in skill scoring ) solution is being thrown around is because the Euro OP and its ensembles have quasi rallied to it .

 

The Control has it and the ensembles are really close .

 

Saturn posted this

MT HOLLY .

 

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY

ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY

NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE

EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

 

 

So they are at the very least intrigued .

 

A good number of the GFS ensembles showed a closer to the coast solution on the latest run as well. 

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Canadian out through 96 hours...cold air is escaping ne. Models now seeing lack of north stream interaction and strong high.

What models ? The NAVGEM and GGEM are hits .

These definitive statements 5 to 6 days out should be left out . There are so many SW in the pattern the models will need to get closer as to which one to key on .

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