CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Jeez, at first I wouldn't think it would be that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Congrats BWI on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Could there be a convective process robbing the low too far to the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 James, of anyone in SNE gets 4" I will wear a Patriots cheerleader uniform and post a pic of me on here I hope you are right but am very doubtful LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Congrats BWI on that run Yup...they get all of 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Jeez, at first I wouldn't think it would be that far south. Yeah the shortwave is pretty potent. You would think it would swing right up. At any rate, I guess we will see how close the euro gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs is worse then the nam now in my opinion they should have left it alone Jeez, at first I wouldn't think it would be that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 To me the problem on the GFS was that there was some confluent lead energy around hour 48 that dampened heights and ruined amplification chances. 18z GFS and 18z/0z NAM are able to keep that fort away from the main vort and allow for enough time for amplification, that's what you want to see if you want this to be a hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Typical 18z GFS antics when it showed a nice solution?? Now back to nothing the next run. the run to run swings are nothing short of amazing. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 James, of anyone in SNE gets 4" I will wear a Patriots cheerleader uniform and post a pic of me on here I hope you are right but am very doubtful Dave I think you should take that back This thing has many mets interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yup...they get all of 1-2 inches. I wish Jerry...more like -rn/sn total qpf is like .11" over a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's still a real close call on the GFS. Wake me up in 24 hours. Models are too unreliable in this changing pattern to care much until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs not enthused with the clipper. May have just been happy hour with those 18z runs. Will wait for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The confluence ahead of it sucks on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well the GEFS look pretty good for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well the GEFS look pretty good for this. This event scares the crap out of me, I'm afraid at 24 hours out its going to go KU on us out of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GEFS mean is still solid as it has been for the last several runs, but it's possible we're back to the one or two crazy members idea(At 18z we had 7/12 with at least 1" for most of the area, while before that it was one or two crazy members skewing the mean) so don't put too much stock into it until we see the individuals on ewall(Which has been consistently late for some reason). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro took a big step. One more tweak and this is a really solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 good news, the ECMWF came in better than the 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Wow. EURO's sort of a hit. Not a lot of snow verbatim(half an inch to an inch for most, 1-2" far western areas and right on the eastern coastline), but exactly what we needed to see, that is, a major shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 A very good step in the right direction, a couple more ticks NW and just a little stronger and most of SNE is in for a solid advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 A very good step in the right direction, a couple more ticks NW and just a little stronger and most of SNE is in for a solid advisory event. we will be talking about this tonight, with some areas looking at possible advisories, maybe even warnings if we see amplification an a tick more NW. NAM still going crazy with it, but that's the NAM for you lol. http://www.weather-talk.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FWIW, the Euro ensemble mean is better. Just pulled a few stations and the mean precip was about twice as high as the OP. Somewhat skewed by the 4 members that bring warning criteria snows to portions of SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS still not enthused, but good to see the EC guidance tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FWIW, the Euro ensemble mean is better. Just pulled a few stations and the mean precip was about twice as high as the OP. Somewhat skewed by the 4 members that bring warning criteria snows to portions of SE New England. I was seeing the same thing Quincy, glad someone else noticed early on. Doesnt mean that we are facing a snowstorm here, but certainly brings promise of some renewed excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Maybe the reverse psychology worked. At least now we all are going to get accumulating snows..but I was hoping I'd wake up and everything else looked like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Maybe the reverse psychology worked. At least now we all are going to get accumulating snows..but I was hoping I'd wake up and everything else looked like the NAM I think most of us were hoping the same thing. It gets frustrating when these models spread like this, especially 72 - 80 z out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Maybe the reverse psychology worked. At least now we all are going to get accumulating snows..but I was hoping I'd wake up and everything else looked like the NAM Well keep dreaming then...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well keep dreaming then...lol. I hear Zzzquil is a new weather model ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well keep dreaming then...lol. Well verbatim Euro is 1-3 Pike south..so regardless..it's going to lay down some snow now which is all anyone wants at this point of this kind of winter. There certainly is a solid trend to going snowier though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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