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Clipper snow disco and OBS Wednesday 1/21/2015


famartin

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0z GFS goes boom at the coast, snow northern burbs

 

How the hell could this be rain for the cities with below freezing at 850 AND sub 540 thickness... I have never seen any winter scenario where that didn't translate to snow.. Then again this winter has been so bad it might as well be... 

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How the hell could this be rain for the cities with below freezing at 850 AND sub 540 thickness... I have never seen any winter scenario where that didn't translate to snow.. Then again this winter has been so bad it might as well be... 

I've seen that in New Jersey, and it happens routinely in the Pacific Northwest.

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I've seen that in New Jersey, and it happens routinely in the Pacific Northwest.

 

There's one place I've seen that in NJ... on the coast with higher SSTs... I would think dynamic cooling with precip falling would help when the surface is a bit too warm...

 

I've never seen a clipper setup like this bring rain for the philly/I-95 area...

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There's one place I've seen that in NJ... on the coast with higher SSTs... I would think dynamic cooling with precip falling would help when the surface is a bit too warm...

 

I've never seen a clipper setup like this bring rain for the philly/I-95 area...

 

I have.

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There's one place I've seen that in NJ... on the coast with higher SSTs... I would think dynamic cooling with precip falling would help when the surface is a bit too warm...

 

I've never seen a clipper setup like this bring rain for the philly/I-95 area...

 

There is WSW flow all night ahead of it so the dewpoints come up and its basically a rain/snow mix til the low gets offshore and winds swing around to the NE...this far out its entirely possible that scenario is too warm, the new GFS runs too warm in the boundary layer, I have definitely noticed that.

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No.  I'm just saying that its possible to have low thicknesses and 850s, and still get rain.

 

I think you need a much staler airmas than is in place for this, or an onshore wind...I could see this being rain for ACY and coastal NJ but I'd be shocked if this scenario verified as shown if places like TTN or EWR saw any rain.

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I think you need a much staler airmas than is in place for this, or an onshore wind...I could see this being rain for ACY and coastal NJ but I'd be shocked if this scenario verified as shown if places like TTN or EWR saw any rain.

It will likely depend on wherever the surface warm front sets up.  I don't think the staleness is a factor, more of how quickly its in and out, at least per the GFS.  The 925 and 850 lows go right across NJ.  Not a great recipe for all snow.

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0z ECM solves the rain snow question by sending the clipper way way south giving DC all snow 5" lol we get screwed like clipper #1

Hate to say it but these clippers trend south

Yet ggem jackpots SE PA Philly and C NJ with 6" + and DC almost nothing thus still way too early to make any call on this one. Have to see what models show after the rainstorm
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Clippers notoriously trend south the writing is on the wall it's DC's winter just like the 80's

True but this one is deepening and slowing down each model run and should turn ENE off the Delmarva enhancing precip to the north. The last clipper's precip field was also a good 50 miles further north than modeled and that was a POS.

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Because it's winter 2015 and DC will likely finish several inches above their pitiful 12" average while Phlly NYC and maybe even Boston will have another less than 10" season.

 

PHL has had 2 sub 10" winters already this decade, a 3rd is possible. Happened in the 1930's, 1950's, and 1990's. Never more than 3 in a decade though (going back to the 1890's anyway). Having said that I'm still thinking this winter will do better than that, and the trends for Wednesday are definitely positive!

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Because it's winter 2015 and DC will likely finish several inches above their pitiful 12" average while Phlly NYC and maybe even Boston will have another less than 10" season.

BOS is really tough... already a bit more than halflway there with 5.5".  Only two seasons there were below 10".

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