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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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It's almost as if we have entered a positive feedback since the waters off the West Coast are so warm, there's no way for the ridge to not keep getting forced in that area.

 

I feel like the lack of a sub-tropical jet is also not helping since it otherwise might be able to undercut/weaken it.

 

 

yep and yep

 

AGW ftl :(

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Yeah I love all seasons as well, which is why once I get to March I want to move on from winter into spring.

March is more Winter than Spring so I just accept it as such, otherwise it becomes long and drawn out hoping for Spring weather.

April, and I'm ready for warmer days and rain showers, but still wouldn't pass up a big dog snow since it would likely melt quick. UP area is quite known for some big April snows even.

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yep and yep

 

AGW ftl :(

 

It will be warm soon enough, if we have to sacrifice a month of severe to get a cold winter, it's worth it. 

 

Just scroll back through the years, this kind of pattern happens all the time.

 

It's been than laboring through a sunny mid 30's bare ground February.

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yep and yep

 

AGW ftl :(

 

My question is when have the waters there been this warm before?

 

2002-03 was another strong +PDO (>2) during the winter, but it had a very cold north-central Pacific with comparatively cooler SSTAs off the West Coast. This time the roles are reversed.

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My question is when have the waters there been this warm before?

 

2002-03 was another strong +PDO (>2) during the winter but it had a very cold north-central Pacific with comparatively cooler SSTAs off the West Coast. This time the roles are reversed.

 

It's like a self maintaining ridge. I wouldn't be upset with a really warm, active spring... As long as summer is cool and sunny. It's hard to get both of these together though.

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My question is when have the waters there been this warm before?

 

2002-03 was another strong +PDO (>2) during the winter, but it had a very cold north-central Pacific with comparatively cooler SSTAs off the West Coast. This time the roles are reversed.

 

Gotta cool that PDO down. Its insanely positive right now. This is driving the PNA up creating a +PNA/-EPO block. In La Nina's, the Aleutian Ridge centers the EPO block over Alaska and we see a -PNA in turn. A -PNA, depending on the strength, usually means a ridge somewhere in the East, but this is good for snow lovers in the Great Lakes/Midwest region as it prevents any coastal storms from forming. Moreover, it means more snowfall opportunities for your area in the PNW. 

 

Maybe in the summer? This dry cold weather pattern is getting boring. Two Winter seasons in a row without any Atlantic blocking and a constant zonal/pacific pattern. 

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Ahem. There are a few of us who enjoy all seasons, including severe.

 

Yes, I'm aware of that.

 

Using words such as "the vast majority," many" and "most" were attempts to acknowledge those "few" you refer to... :lol:

 

The board in the summer is a ghost town compared to the winter months (unless it's a major severe weather outbreak) and filled with complaints about the heat. 

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Yes, I'm aware of that.

 

Using words such as "the vast majority," many" and "most" were attempts to acknowledge those "few" you refer to... :lol:

 

The board in the summer is a ghost town compared to the winter months (unless it's a major severe weather outbreak) and filled with complaints about the heat. 

In the summer no one really cares about popcorn showers and storms, and those are the summer equivalent to these dusty clippers we have been having. The big storms in the winter or the big severe outbreaks in the summer still bring in the traffic.

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The arctic outbreak next week continues to look even more impressive as the PV/mean ULL trof trends south and west. 

 

Here are the last 4 runs of the GFS ensemble mean (only 0z/12z runs so two days worth) valid 12z Wednesday 

 

attachicon.gifoutput_08juub.gif

Nice animation showing the trend. Latest GFS drops temperatures somewhere around -10 to -15 in NE IL / SE WI for Thursday morning, seems like that could be the worst day of this latest cold wave. Not looking forward to it after the car barely got going in the morning during last month's cold wave.
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In the summer no one really cares about popcorn showers and storms, and those are the summer equivalent to these dusty clippers we have been having. The big storms in the winter or the big severe outbreaks in the summer still bring in the traffic.

 

And yet, undoubtedly, those "dusty clippers" seem to bring in a lot more traffic than popcorn showers and storms...

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The arctic outbreak next week continues to look even more impressive as the PV/mean ULL trof trends south and west. 

 

Here are the last 4 runs of the GFS ensemble mean (only 0z/12z runs so two days worth) valid 12z Wednesday 

 

attachicon.gifoutput_08juub.gif

 

That may help with the 16-17th storm as well if we can continue that trend...

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Outside of December this has been a great winter for me.  Sorry other hate it so much.  Keep her coming!!! :snowing:

 

I'll gladly take those t-storms in the summer.  Lightning, thunder & some decent rains :thumbsup:   Send them my way :D

Same here. Its hard to believe we have seen such a good winter following last year. The winter is running much colder than normal, snowier than normal, more days with snow on the ground than normal, and deeper snow than normal. And those running totals INCLUDE the mild, snowless December. And we had Detroits 3rd largest snowstorm on record to boot.

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Not a big fan of posting op runs this far out but had to post this one...would be pretty amazing to get this kind of airmass at the end of February.

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

I was literally just texting my friend about this. 

 

Not for sure and thought I had a saved image but think models were showing a major arctic outbreak to start March last year as well.

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unreal is more the word. An entire generation of kids are going to have a completely unrealistic idea of what a typical winter is here (that is, if we ever revert back to what "average" was before the 21st century ;) )

It is kind of funny but my kids around the same age I was when are getting the same type of winters mid/late 70s ^_^

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