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Chicago Storm

Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

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That's assuming the models are handling the upper level flow correctly.

If current model runs are underdoing the strength of the shortwave and it digs further SW, then a storm cutting more NE is certainly on the table (especially with no Greenland block).

 

 

Yeah, that's why I said in the context of this particular run.  Could certainly change.

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Yeah, that's why I said in the context of this particular run. Could certainly change.

12z GGEM verbatim was close to the aforementioned possibility (a stronger/deeper digging shortwave). It just missed the phase.

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I find it interesting with such a strong high to the east the system just barrels right into it versus heading northeast some as there is a weakness in the high pressure field north of the storm.

 

I think that's where the best chance of a north trend occurs.   Better ridging between the departing HP and the new one dropping in to the northern plains.   I suspect this storm will model stronger....I just have to hope not too strong and north, (which definitely is a possibility). 

 

I guess it's all noise at this point.  We really won't have a good handle on a general threat scenario until 00z Sunday runs IMHO.  That's when all the clippers and fronts will have done their thing and cleared the path for whatever happens with this.

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Some sfc low members from the 12z Euro and the control one was a significant hit along and north of the Ohio river 

 

attachicon.gifeuro ensemble lows.png

 

what's interesting is even though several members have tracks that would normally spell rain for our area, it's still snow, which I think has to do with the depth of cold air in place.   The control takes the low to central OH and yet has the greatest snows for Ohio.  

 

It kind of reminds me of the scenario with the Jan '99 Chicago blizz....there was so much cold air in place, the low bullied into the weakness of the high and it still snowed in places east of the low.    Assuming this all doesn't fall apart into a batch of cumulus clouds off the southeast coast, this has a good potential to be a widespread event for the subforum.

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what's interesting is even though several members have tracks that would normally spell rain for our area, it's still snow, which I think has to do with the depth of cold air in place.   The control takes the low to central OH and yet has the greatest snows for Ohio.  

 

It kind of reminds me of the scenario with the Jan '99 Chicago blizz....there was so much cold air in place, the low bullied into the weakness of the high and it still snowed in places east of the low.    Assuming this all doesn't fall apart into a batch of cumulus clouds off the southeast coast, this has a good potential to be a widespread event for the subforum.

 

I'd go as far as to say that this has good potential to be another big dog for the subforum.

 

It's been a while since we've had a such a tight E-W baroclinic zone for a Pacific shortwave to work with (not even 2/1/15 had that).

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The Euro ensemble members continue to get very snowy in the day 7 to 15 range. 

 

Hard to count the shading, but pretty sure e12 has at least 40" for STL in the next 15 days. BOS like pounding.  :lol:

 

 

e31 while not super crazy per se, spreads the love all around. Everything in pink is basically 10"+.

 

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I'd go as far as to say that this has good potential to be another big dog for the subforum.

It's been a while since we've had a such a tight E-W baroclinic zone for a Pacific shortwave to work with (not even 2/1/15 had that).

It will be interesting to see if models try to come back to that really amped GFS run from a few days ago

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The latest weeklies continue the current pattern (+NAO/AO, -EPO/+PNA) through the end of the month, though the Pacific block does weaken a bit in the second half which may present more snowfall opportunities. However, by March the weeklies build up an Aleutian ridge and -PNA pattern with the trough centred around the Plains/Midwest/Prairies, and a weak SE ridge anomaly. Gotta cool the PDO down! 

 

March could be an interesting month for us. 

 

Edit: Looks similar to March 08/11. 

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Quite a few of the 18z GEFS members are very juicy for the potential big storm monday with over 1" QPF in various areas of the subforum.

 

Yeah the signals are all there. The GEFS are actually not as spread as normal. Looks good on most guidance for someone to get hit in the Great Lakes/NorthEast region.

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Lansing started their streak on Jan 5th..... So that's almost 5 weeks. 7 Weeks looks like an almost lock.

 

Amazing that Lansing managed only a single day with a measurable depth in Dec.... A single T recording.

That is the same day pretty much all of S MI started their streak, Jan 5th

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Quite a few of the 18z GEFS members are very juicy for the potential big storm monday with over 1" QPF in various areas of the subforum.

Some actually bring the freezing line at 850mb pretty close to here. Interesting that the ensembles are pretty bullish on this.

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Some actually bring the freezing line at 850mb pretty close to here. Interesting that the ensembles are pretty bullish on this.

 

anything is possible...but I think something similar to the storm a week ago is about the limits on warmth with this one,  Air mass ahead is much colder, air mass coming in is much colder, trough will probably remain positively tilted.   To get the freezing line that far north, this thing would probably have to go neg tilt and cut to Chicago.

Although I admit it would be foolish to discount any scenario 6-7 days out.  Hell, look at the last storm, LAF was safe inside 48hrs :yikes: .

 

But if we're going to talk about model noise, I call dibbs on the JMA.... 997 in OKC to 992 to south central PA with 1.5"qpf along I-70 in ohio :lol:

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Boy, look out if there is any ridging that forms after 150 hr on the GFS, this could be going back to a huge outcome with that much energy diving into the West.

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Boy, look out if there is any ridging that forms after 150 hr on the GFS, this could be going back to a huge outcome with that much energy diving into the West.

 

That ridge out West on the 0z GFS is incredible. Through 156 hours it looks as if the GFS is ejecting the S/W out too quickly. Alot of energy coming into this. On the wind charts you can see the energy feed from the Pacific and Gulf (STJ). Timing is everything. 

 

Any initial thoughts? 

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That ridge out West on the 0z GFS is incredible. Through 156 hours it looks as if the GFS is ejecting the S/W out too quickly. Alot of energy coming into this. On the wind charts you can see the energy feed from the Pacific and Gulf (STJ). Timing is everything. 

 

Any initial thoughts? 

Step in the right direction, it does put down a nice swath of snow across Ohio Valley.

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Yeah the GFS was another step in the right direction but not there yet...stronger wave initially dives into the pac NW..just need the next nrn wave associated with the next arctic shot to come down further west/phase better and a some more ridging out ahead of anything.

 

The potential is pretty high as others have said if that happens.

 

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Step in the right direction, it does put down a nice swath of snow across Ohio Valley.

 

Yup. Partial phase. Look at the 0z UKMET. Also has a massive ridge out West. I like the placement. Just off the coast. Bodes well for us. 

 

post-6644-0-67218800-1423630223_thumb.gi

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The euro verbatim would be another big spread the wealth event (like what several ensemble members had) and I said .50" liquid up to here with 850s in the low teens and sfc temps in the upper teens, good ratios on the north side.

Man does this sound familiar

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Judging by the ensemble mean, the EPS will still have a large spread, but likely a few deeper and farther north members this run.

 

Can't really argue with a sharp ridge right off the west coast and an ejecting shortwave out of the southwest in the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes. I think we'd need the northern shortwave to dive in a good bit farther southwest for this to take on a negative tilt and cut much north of between I-70 and the Ohio River...the polar vortex is strong and centered near the longitude of Toronto, which seems rather far east for a storm to take on a negative tilt in our neck of the woods. Still time for that to change though.

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