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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Judging by the ensemble mean, the EPS will still have a large spread, but likely a few deeper and farther north members this run.

 

Can't really argue with a sharp ridge right off the west coast and an ejecting shortwave out of the southwest in the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes. I think we'd need the northern shortwave to dive in a good bit farther southwest for this to take on a negative tilt and cut much north of between I-70 and the Ohio River...the polar vortex is strong and centered near the longitude of Toronto, which seems rather far east for a storm to take on a negative tilt in our neck of the woods. Still time for that to change though.

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:yikes: well, I guess if I'm going to see a bump north....6-7 days out is better than 48 hrs out.   Tells me 1 of 2 things, it either keeps going north or it comes back south.    The way the models have been this winter, unlikely a track thru Ohio holds for the next 6 days, (anecdotally, and hopefully speaking :weenie: )

 

looking at the euro ens, there is a huge spread but mainly because there are 2 distinct camps, one is thru Ohio, the other is thru the lower TN valley.  Not many in between. 

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Yep, seen this movie before. Looking good again for the MLI-MKE-ORD-GRR-DTW corridor. 

 

 

you gonna chase the LE event to get the snow bug out of your system?

 

After a 20" big dog, my tracking interest is at an all-time low. I'm sure i'll perk up when things get a little closer but i'm having a hard time getting pumped for this.

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you gonna chase the LE event to get the snow bug out of your system?

 

After a 20" big dog, my tracking interest is at an all-time low. I'm sure i'll perk up when things get a little closer but i'm having a hard time getting pumped for this.

 

No can do. But I will be up north early next week, so you know where my interests lie with that one. ;)

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Some are...and some are whiffs. Still a large enough spread. By 168 hours, mean slp location is SE OH/SW PA/WV area...though it's not even a closed contour.

Ok, so that's actually a step back then...

Majority of the EURO ensembles on yesterday's 12z run were along/north of the OH River...

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Ok, so that's actually a step back then...

Majority of the EURO ensembles on yesterday's 12z run were along/north of the OH River...

 

I wouldn't call it a step back at all. The mean on both basically ends up in the same spot by day 6/7. All I'm saying is there is still quite a bit of spread, as we would/should expect at this range.

 

Personally though, I'm pulling for EPS member #6. ;)

 

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Great update. I will say that I am glad we're going to have another above normal ice cover on the Great Lakes. This will greatly benefit the level recovery we have seen the past couple years. You mentioned the rapid ice development was not needed but I for one find it to be positive.

I was only thinking of the ice jams on the St Clair River and those folks! There is already enough ice to help with evaporation.

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I was only thinking of the ice jams on the St Clair River and those folks! There is already enough ice to help with evaporation.

1996 immediately comes to mind, my grandparents live on Harsens Island and their ferry was out of service for 2 weeks because of ice jams. I foresee similar issues this go around too.

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Control runs have flopped all winter. They don't catch events when they should and blow up PAC ridging when they should not. I see little difference from my post earlier. After the 20th, heights are going to start pushing northwesward and this will goes a pattern reversal with the CONUS. That may be good for some of you further northwest, but not further southeast.

 

Models are not what they once were.

 

 

are you ever right?

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Control runs have flopped all winter. They don't catch events when they should and blow up PAC ridging when they should not. I see little difference from my post earlier. After the 20th, heights are going to start pushing northwesward and this will goes a pattern reversal with the CONUS. That may be good for some of you further northwest, but not further southeast.

 

Models are not what they once were.

 

 

Well, at least you're on record.  Will be easy to judge.

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