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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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1 hour ago, snowdude said:

I’m getting excited! 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

MDZ021>024-VAZ075-076-517-519-521-522-021700-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2100Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Western King William-Western King and Queen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield,
Princess Anne, Snow Hill, Sandy Point, Westmoreland,
Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach,
Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham,
Haynesville, Kennard, Aylett, Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork,
Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, Saint Stephens Church,
Tappahannock, and Dunnsville
352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2
  to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and east central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-022200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2200Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach,
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton,
Cape May Court House, Ocean City, and Atlantic City
357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of at least
  4 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland
  and central and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Hazardous conditions
  including snow-covered roads will likely impact the Monday
  morning commute, potentially lingering into the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed one inch per
  hour at times Monday morning. Users should closely monitor the
  forecast today, as additional changes, potentially significant,
  are possible.
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Eastern Shore pummeling incoming?!?!

Who woulda thunk it even a day or so ago?

(Hint:  The rabid snow-starved of the Mid-Atlantic forum often fear a coastal fringing when things looking strong for the plain.)

Not that this can’t go awry, but to say we are all due is obvious. Some day, maybe tomorrow(!)we’ll see…

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Just now, csnavywx said:

Busting out BUFKIT on this morning's guidance has been eye-opening. More to come in a bit....

Thanks, I’ve been looking forward to your thoughts. I’m worried about a last minute north trend. Hope my post above didn’t jinx it- I don’t want to go from Return of the Flakes to The Phantom Flakes. :lol:

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- Ground temps are warm.

- Boundary layer starts warm.

- Heaviest amounts are likely to be in intense mesoscale bands. Great if you're in it, but that means somebody is getting shafted with subsidence.

- SLRs will be very low to start. They improve as time goes on, but we're looking at an 7-9:1 maybe improving to 10:1 by the end.

- Sneaky southerly flow at ~700mb might be just warm enough to mix sleet on the southern end as the closed low opens up.

- Track very sensitive to small changes. Luckily we're inside 24 hours, so only minor shifts are likely going forward.

 

+ Perfect track. Southern slider off Hatteras-east of ORF with a closed (!) low that doesn't track up the coast. 

+ Related to first, but no significant WAA belt to mix (except perhaps very high up >700mb). Column temps cool through the storm.

+ Very high moisture availability. 1"+ QPF/6 hours. Incidentally, while models tend to overdo QPF <0.75"/6 hr, the opposite is true for values bigger than that.

+ DGZ and max lift overlap for a good while. Combined with near iso-thermal layer (-2 to -8c) below, this will probably result in a ton of big rimed dendritic and mixed aggregates. Fat flakes that can pile up fast.

+ Near min sun angle and high boundary layer winds will limit the effect of the Bay. Still expect shoreline accumulation to be lower, but not as bad as with low-gradient situations.

+ Low static stability, moist neutral to even slightly unstable (wrt theta-e) in mid-levels favors some convectively-enhanced mesoscale banding. Good deformation zone too. Bands will be intense, which is good, because we need high rates to overcome thermal issues initially.

 

 

Right now, thinking max band runs from Mechanicsville to Easton/Cambridge. 6-12" of wet concrete.

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1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

- Ground temps are warm.

- Boundary layer starts warm.

- Heaviest amounts are likely to be in intense mesoscale bands. Great if you're in it, but that means somebody is getting shafted with subsidence.

- SLRs will be very low to start. They improve as time goes on, but we're looking at an 7-9:1 maybe improving to 10:1 by the end.

- Sneaky southerly flow at ~700mb might be just warm enough to mix sleet on the southern end as the closed low opens up.

- Track very sensitive to small changes. Luckily we're inside 24 hours, so only minor shifts are likely going forward.

 

+ Perfect track. Southern slider off Hatteras-east of ORF with a closed (!) low that doesn't track up the coast. 

+ Related to first, but no significant WAA belt to mix (except perhaps very high up >700mb). Column temps cool through the storm.

+ Very high moisture availability. 1"+ QPF/6 hours. Incidentally, while models tend to overdo QPF <0.75"/6 hr, the opposite is true for values bigger than that.

+ DGZ and max lift overlap for a good while. Combined with near iso-thermal layer (-2 to -8c) below, this will probably result in a ton of big rimed dendritic and mixed aggregates. Fat flakes that can pile up fast.

+ Near min sun angle and high boundary layer winds will limit the effect of the Bay. Still expect shoreline accumulation to be lower, but not as bad as with low-gradient situations.

+ Low static stability, moist neutral to even slightly unstable (wrt theta-e) in mid-levels favors some convectively-enhanced mesoscale banding. Good deformation zone too. Bands will be intense, which is good, because we need high rates to overcome thermal issues initially.

 

 

Right now, thinking max band runs from Mechanicsville to Easton/Cambridge. 6-12" of wet concrete.

man tough forecast , thanks

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And this is why I stay out of the main thread. Some people over there are downright bitter. You don't have to root for someone to rain just so you can get your snow. It's possible for all of us to win. Better stick around in here where it's safe

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

And this is why I stay out of the main thread. Some people over there are downright bitter. You don't have to root for someone to rain just so you can get your snow. It's possible for all of us to win. Better stick around in here where it's safeemoji102.png

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

I stoped trying to contribute years ago. I lurk for the entertainment.

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15 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

And this is why I stay out of the main thread. Some people over there are downright bitter. You don't have to root for someone to rain just so you can get your snow. It's possible for all of us to win. Better stick around in here where it's safeemoji102.png

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

If you want to see true level 100 assholes, stop by the off-topic section sometime. Lot of bitter, crazy people on this forum. :blink: 

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If you want to see true level 100 assholes, stop by the off-topic section sometime. Lot of bitter, crazy people on this forum. :blink: 
I think I'm actually still banned from that side from years ago I used to get into it pretty bad with Trixie

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2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Did you see the snow map? Total crap o know, but something like 17" for GED

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Yeah I saw. Haha. A lot of tonight’s runs are showing high totals like that. That tells me it’s going to rip! Although some of that in SBY is sleet. But I’m excited! Hopefully temps crash. 

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