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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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8 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

@PrinceFrederickWx this is my last winter down here... My wife and I sold our home over in PF last summer and we are building a new home just south of Hanover, PA. I work from home 85% of the time and most of my clients are actually in Charm City. Of course I will miss my home, but mom still lives in Charlotte Hall, so I will be visiting frequently still.

Funny- I may possibly be moving away in a few years too, and southern PA was an area we’ve considered. How far I can move depends on what my permanent percentage of telework is though, which I’m not gonna fully know until next year. Proximity to relatives is also a factor.

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10 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Funny- I may possibly be moving away in a few years too, and southern PA was an area we’ve considered. How far I can move depends on what my permanent percentage of telework is though, which I’m not gonna fully know until next year. Proximity to relatives is also a factor.

My wife and I just fell in love with the Hanover area. So much so we were like, let’s move! Kids are even on board, mostly because I sold them on more snow lol. They are just like their old man, haha. 

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6 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

My wife and I just fell in love with the Hanover area. So much so we were like, let’s move! Kids are even on board, mostly because I sold them on more snow lol. They are just like their old man, haha. 

Sounds like my boys! They love the snow too.

This will be my youngest son’s first snowstorm- I wonder what he’s going to think of it. Sadly, baby’s first winter last year was a dud. His baby book actually has a section to fill in for “my first snowstorm” - hopefully that gets filled soon :lol:

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Still can't count on the coastal actually doing anything for us. It's a very chaotic/sensitive setup where popping the low and closed H5 circulation a bit earlier and further south like the Euro and RGEM allows us to cash in on some of it -- or a little later and further north where it can't help us (like the NAM).

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28 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Still can't count on the coastal actually doing anything for us. It's a very chaotic/sensitive setup where popping the low and closed H5 circulation a bit earlier and further south like the Euro and RGEM allows us to cash in on some of it -- or a little later and further north where it can't help us (like the NAM).

Agreed- all I care about is that front end / WAA first half. Let the northern crew obsess over the coastal deathbands in the main thread. Are you still thinking late morning Sunday is when the good stuff arrives?

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11 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Agreed- all I care about is that front end / WAA first half. Let the northern crew obsess over the coastal deathbands in the main thread. Are you still thinking late morning Sunday is when the good stuff arrives?

You gotta admit it’s comical watching the weenies live and die by each run... 

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27 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

You gotta admit it’s comical watching the weenies live and die by each run... 

Honestly it comes full circle 4 or 5 days ago we were having similar solutions with the coastal crushing the Northern part of our forum and then the suppression started, everyone (psu et al) panicked and now we are back where we started.  I said 1"-4", snow to rain to dry slot for our sub forum at large a few days ago and these diamond hands are sticking with that.  We might get some upside with WAA for Charles, St Mary's, and Calvert, but here on the shore the bar is at 4" for midshore and @Lowershoresadness the bar is seven snowflakes.

 

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Agreed- all I care about is that front end / WAA first half. Let the northern crew obsess over the coastal deathbands in the main thread. Are you still thinking late morning Sunday is when the good stuff arrives?

Yeah, primetime between 14 and 21z, shift that up an hour or two for places further east/north. Thermals get shaky from south to north after that, though it might rip right up through changeover. I'm thinking diabatic cooling keeps the warm wedge at bay until the rates relax and the dry slot starts to nose in and then the changeover will be really fast.

Key question will be how quick the morning stuff gets going. Earlier the better, as that sets us up nicely for column saturation and gives a decent powdery base to accumulate on.

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1 hour ago, SnowtoRain said:

Forecast wise not much has changed for our region it seems, best WAA Charles, N. St Mary's and Calvert  with less totals farther north and east.  Most of our snow will come then so hopefully we can capitalize on some more moisture at the beginning.  Biggest boom or bust is @CAPE and @JakkelWx neighborhood. 

12z Euro was pretty sweet. If it and the CMC are more correct than the GFS, we should all be pretty happy. Biggest issue will be temps after the thump- mid to upper 30s for a few hours isn't too bad with some light rain falling, but the GFS likes low 40s and even has some heavy rain before the cold comes back in. Hopefully its wrong and wont get that warm for that long, but we know how that goes with a developing coastal low and stiff east winds off the Atlantic.

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9 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I wonder if there’s any chance of significant ice late Sunday evening? I see LWX called for 0.1” ice in the WSW for Calvert and St Mary’s. We don’t seem to do ice much here though.

Not really seeing that. Better chance of something after it cools down Mon night -- but even that would be freezing drizzle.

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