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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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With the AO being pretty positive during this week, the cold air will be tough to get unlike this last storm, however, there looks to be just enough cold air where there may be some accumulating snow if this system trends west, which there is a chance of. 

 

Right now I'd say about a 20-30% for the DC area, 40-50% chance along eastern shore. Stay tuned for sure...

Thank you for your thoughts sir!  Always much appreciated!

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think Friday morning is starting to look encouraging for some snow in our regions, especially lower eastern shore. Most models show 1-4 inches on the eastern shore and around a inch in Southern Maryland. Surface temps look to start warm but will cool down with precip. Euro shows, Salisbury starting 40-43 as rain and then turns to snow when the heavy precip is over head, cooling down to 33-34 but upper columns are cold enough to make it snow. It shows 4" for Salisbury. 1-2 for Calvert/Charles and most of St. Mary's 2". GFS is nothing for northern Calvert and Charles, 1" for St. Mary's and 1-4" on Delmarva with heavy rain turning to heavy snow. GFS however did jump 30-40 miles northwest with precip compared to 6z. So with all said, hopefully the trend will be our friend. RGEM is a general 1-2" for most.

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I think Friday morning is starting to look encouraging for some snow in our regions, especially lower eastern shore. Most models show 1-4 inches on the eastern shore and around a inch in Southern Maryland. Surface temps look to start warm but will cool down with precip. Euro shows, Salisbury starting 40-43 as rain and then turns to snow when the heavy precip is over head, cooling down to 33-34 but upper columns are cold enough to make it snow. It shows 4" for Salisbury. 1-2 for Calvert/Charles and most of St. Mary's 2". GFS is nothing for northern Calvert and Charles, 1" for St. Mary's and 1-4" on Delmarva with heavy rain turning to heavy snow. GFS however did jump 30-40 miles northwest with precip compared to 6z. So with all said, hopefully the trend will be our friend. RGEM is a general 1-2" for most.

Topher ......we are going to party together. Calling all Salisbury peeps

tumblr_mnjry5cMqb1ss228po1_400.gif

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Wow, this is a tough forecast. I am saying a slushy 1"-2" in Salisbury especially on grass. It's going to be tough to stick but if we get the high snow rates like some models are indicating then we could get more. I mean, it's still 62 degrees right now in Salisbury. 

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My latest forecast...

I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. 

 

post-98-0-76229800-1454591439_thumb.jpg

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My latest forecast...

I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. 

 

attachicon.gifsnowmaps.jpg

 

 

Interesting stuff about a slower cold front passage, hadn't thought about that in relation to this wave. It is still 52 here in Spotsylvania (just outside EZF) hoping for maybe a little Snow TV/Flurries.....good luck over on the Eastern Shore!

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My latest forecast...

I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area.

snowmaps.jpg

Good map and always room for upward adjustments as new guidance comes in. I would not want to be a pro forecaster for the next 2 weeks. Looks like chaos in the medium range.
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Sadly Euro has not been a great performer for us of late, overdoing snow by quite a bit pretty consistently.  Really think 1-3 is more appropriate.

Dont look at the 16z RAP...basically nada for SBY

 

eta- 17z looks better, and its the extended RAP so its out of its range a tad. It also tends to run warm, but the warm temps going in and the short window are a concern.

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