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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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Didn't get much sleep at all, the winds were too loud. My wind gauge was saying 50mph gusts, and KNHK had a peak gust of 49mph, so that sounds about right. Went outside to check my roof and fence (all ok, fortunately) but one neighbor has damage to their fence I see. Somehow most of the snow melted (or maybe it just blew away). Its unbearable outside.  :shiver:

 

Between the two bursts of snow yesterday, the cold and winds, and then if we get a MECS here on Tuesday, this would be a pretty epic period of winter.

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This cold snap is epic; it's extended and I do believe that a healthy portion of the Chesapeake is going to ice over if the wind eases down.....As for snow, we are looking pretty good at this lead and confidence is growing. The magnitude of this cold airmass and the fact that it simply keeps reloading an active pattern boosts our chances. Would be truly fun if the Delmarva got slammed whilst the I-95 corridor west gets fringed...... bunch of chicken neckers....

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Here's to hoping the models are right and we pull out a nice thumping to end the winter. Honestly 4-5" would make

Me happy, but deep down I hope Tuesday morning I have 10" on the ground. Good luck SOMD!!

 

Glad to see you back on here!

 

Latest LWX map has central/southern Calvert and all of St. Mary's in the bullseye: 8-10!

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png

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Quick run-down of all the forecasts I've seen for southern MD:

 

TWC = 8-12

Accuweather = 6-12

DT (1st call) = 10-12

NWS map (currently) = 6-8

Ellinwood = 8-12

CWG = hasn't put out an official forecast yet, but said we could get 5-10 down here

 

I could wind up with more snow than any storm last year... actually this could be the most snow I've seen in one storm since snowmageddon if some of these forecasts verify.

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NAM is doing some weird stuff with ratios. 5:1-10:1 with temps around 20.  I haven't looked at any soundings, but I'm guessing there's a warm layer?

 

Here's the Cobb output from the 12z run for SBY:

 

150216/2300Z 35 28005KT 16.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0
150217/0000Z 36 29003KT 16.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150217/0100Z 37 VRB01KT 16.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
150217/0200Z 38 VRB01KT 17.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
150217/0300Z 39 05003KT 17.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0
150217/0400Z 40 06003KT 17.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
150217/0500Z 41 06004KT 17.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 10:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0
150217/0600Z 42 06005KT 17.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 9:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150217/0700Z 43 04006KT 17.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 9:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
150217/0800Z 44 03007KT 18.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 9:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0
150217/0900Z 45 04008KT 19.3F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 8:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
150217/1000Z 46 01007KT 20.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 8:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 100| 0| 0
150217/1100Z 47 36009KT 21.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 8:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0
150217/1200Z 48 01010KT 23.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 8:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150217/1300Z 49 36010KT 23.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 7:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0
150217/1400Z 50 35011KT 22.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 7:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0
150217/1500Z 51 34011KT 21.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 7:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0
150217/1600Z 52 33011KT 22.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0

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This is for Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's Counties. Southern areas of PG and AA Counties can be in it too. Post forecasts, OBS, banter, etc.
 
Anyway... I'm liking the look of tomorrow's system, looks like it could be a southern MD special like 1/29 last year. NWS has me for 1/2 inch overnight and up to an inch tomorrow. I think winter weather advisories may get posted down here. If it works out, it'll be nice to see some accumulating snow finally after last week's shutout.

 

Just saw this thread and wanted to belatedly thank you for setting it up.  In most events my observations in Calvert are exact opposite of what everyone else is observing.  Glad to have found my people.

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Just saw this thread and wanted to belatedly thank you for setting it up.  In most events my observations in Calvert are exact opposite of what everyone else is observing.  Glad to have found my people.

 

Welcome aboard, glad to see more people joining the thread.
 
Looking forward to everyone's obs! I'm excited!
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Will enjoy the rare occasion we are in the bullseye!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ054-170445-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0005.150216T2038Z-150217T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...
COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
338 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING
  HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW
  COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE
  HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS.
 

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