RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lots of reports in the OH forum that radar shows nothing over them but its still snowing decently. Not sure what to make of that. I guess we will see if that translates to us too. Dry slot. Well something always finds a way to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No. You're wrong and so is he. We are looking at another 2-3 on the backside.I'm thinking another 1-2 at the most. Even the NWS just said that. Most areas have around 2 right now, so that would give us 3-4 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lots of reports in the OH forum that radar shows nothing over them but its still snowing decently. Not sure what to make of that. I guess we will see if that translates to us too. Lol you know I like to b**ch. Im just glad its snowing. Looks like more winter to come too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No. You're wrong and so is he. We are looking at another 2-3 on the backside. So currently in general about 2 inches around the area. NWS calling for 1-2 more. My math that adds up to about 3-4 inches. Jeff was on the radio late yesterday afternoon saying 3-4 inches. I heard no one else calling for dry slot but Jeff Sounds like Jeff did pretty good with his call. Enjoy your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So currently in general about 2 inches around the area. NWS calling for 1-2 more. My math that adds up to about 3-4 inches. Jeff was on the radio late yesterday afternoon saying 3-4 inches. I heard no one else calling for dry slot but Jeff Sounds like Jeff did pretty good with his call. Enjoy your snow. Jeff did not do a good job. Most areas have 2-3, and then another 2-3 is being depicted on the short range models. We will end 4-6 or 4-7 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No. You're wrong and so is he. We are looking at another 2-3 on the backside. OK again I am going off of JV's Twitter feed...he posted yesterday 3-6" for Pittsburgh, tapering off by 6 pm. I suppose he might have talked about a dry slot on other media sources, but his Twitter post says otherwise. This "dry slot" moving through/soon to move through is not a classic dry slot as usually discussed in the context of a well-defined cyclone. It's more of a break in between disturbances. A vort max at 500 hPa is passing over W PA ATTM...east of this is forcing for synoptic ascent, west of this is forcing for descent/drying. Another vort max is progged to approach from the west during the afternoon, so snow should pick back up after 18z. Latest GFS run has large, last vort max approaching W PA around 6z Sun...so some snow (I stress "some"--could just be light for a few hours before stopping completely) is possible through that time. PIT is probably in line for another 1-3" this PM with some lollipops of 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lots of reports in the OH forum that radar shows nothing over them but its still snowing decently. Not sure what to make of that. I guess we will see if that translates to us too. Yea, that looks to be the case here in Bethel now. Radar showing dry slot but very fine snow but picking up. Flake size growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Coming down at a nice clip right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OK again I am going off of JV's Twitter feed...he posted yesterday 3-6" for Pittsburgh, tapering off by 6 pm. I suppose he might have talked about a dry slot on other media sources, but his Twitter post says otherwise. This "dry slot" moving through/soon to move through is not a classic dry slot as usually discussed in the context of a well-defined cyclone. It's more of a break in between disturbances. A vort max at 500 hPa is passing over W PA ATTM...east of this is forcing for synoptic ascent, west of this is forcing for descent/drying. Another vort max is progged to approach from the west during the afternoon, so snow should pick back up after 18z. Latest GFS run has large, last vort max approaching W PA around 6z Sun...so some snow (I stress "some"--could just be light for a few hours before stopping completely) is possible through that time. PIT is probably in line for another 1-3" this PM with some lollipops of 4". That is what I figured...that it looked more like a erosion of the precip than a dry slot caused by a closed low passing over us. And thanks for the explanation. I see the rap and hrrr depicting the redevelopment, but didn't know what would cause that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OK again I am going off of JV's Twitter feed...he posted yesterday 3-6" for Pittsburgh, tapering off by 6 pm. I suppose he might have talked about a dry slot on other media sources, but his Twitter post says otherwise. This "dry slot" moving through/soon to move through is not a classic dry slot as usually discussed in the context of a well-defined cyclone. It's more of a break in between disturbances. A vort max at 500 hPa is passing over W PA ATTM...east of this is forcing for synoptic ascent, west of this is forcing for descent/drying. Another vort max is progged to approach from the west during the afternoon, so snow should pick back up after 18z. Latest GFS run has large, last vort max approaching W PA around 6z Sun...so some snow (I stress "some"--could just be light for a few hours before stopping completely) is possible through that time. PIT is probably in line for another 1-3" this PM with some lollipops of 4". always happy to see a met able to explain some technical things in our sub forum. Thank you. Are you from here Thunderhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OK again I am going off of JV's Twitter feed...he posted yesterday 3-6" for Pittsburgh, tapering off by 6 pm. I suppose he might have talked about a dry slot on other media sources, but his Twitter post says otherwise. This "dry slot" moving through/soon to move through is not a classic dry slot as usually discussed in the context of a well-defined cyclone. It's more of a break in between disturbances. A vort max at 500 hPa is passing over W PA ATTM...east of this is forcing for synoptic ascent, west of this is forcing for descent/drying. Another vort max is progged to approach from the west during the afternoon, so snow should pick back up after 18z. Latest GFS run has large, last vort max approaching W PA around 6z Sun...so some snow (I stress "some"--could just be light for a few hours before stopping completely) is possible through that time. PIT is probably in line for another 1-3" this PM with some lollipops of 4". Always appreciate your input. On the 6pm news, when Jeff was discussing the storm, he talked about light snows starting in the morning, then the dry slot would work in during the early afternoon. His graphic did show 3-6 over the area, but when he was on the radio about 4pm he called for 3-4 inches for the area. Guessing since the WSW was for 4-6 he may have expanded his totals on the graphic to show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well we've transitioned to a mix now, which is mostly FRZ. I'm guessing we're done for snow with a total of 3". My own predictions were correct, but I'd really like to be wrong for once. Another bust...yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like about an inch and a half here in the South Hills. Maybe, maybe two inches... Big bust either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like about an inch and a half here in the South Hills. Maybe, maybe two inches... Big bust either way. Not over yet......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OK again I am going off of JV's Twitter feed...he posted yesterday 3-6" for Pittsburgh, tapering off by 6 pm. I suppose he might have talked about a dry slot on other media sources, but his Twitter post says otherwise. This "dry slot" moving through/soon to move through is not a classic dry slot as usually discussed in the context of a well-defined cyclone. It's more of a break in between disturbances. A vort max at 500 hPa is passing over W PA ATTM...east of this is forcing for synoptic ascent, west of this is forcing for descent/drying. Another vort max is progged to approach from the west during the afternoon, so snow should pick back up after 18z. Latest GFS run has large, last vort max approaching W PA around 6z Sun...so some snow (I stress "some"--could just be light for a few hours before stopping completely) is possible through that time. PIT is probably in line for another 1-3" this PM with some lollipops of 4". NWS discussion mentioned the "dry slot" too in several of the discussions. They also said qpf totals were likely overdone. I measured about 2.5 inches. I had about 1 inch by 9 then another 1.5 fell from 9-11:30. If I get another 1.5 that puts me on the low end of the range which was 4-6. I think some people see 4-6 or 5-7 and just see the last number. If you get 4 and the range was 4-6 then its not a bust. Thanks for explaining the situation though, hopefully some folks stepped back from the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well we've transitioned to a mix now, which is mostly FRZ. I'm guessing we're done for snow with a total of 3". My own predictions were correct, but I'd really like to be wrong for once. Another bust...yay. When rates pick back up you might transition back to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 When rates pick back up you might transition back to all snow. 2.5 at the nws office. Light snow again. Radar is filling back in across Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Freezing line up into Westmoreland County now. Could see some rain/snow mix from California to Greensburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I will add my two cents since I finally woke up and did not travel to WVU. My son texted me as their bus from Johnstown slid into a car in Morgantown and he said the roads were bad. Nothing serious and they are now running indoors at WVU. I just shoveled 3 inches and the snow had stopped it is now picking up again and it looks like the dry slot is filling in somewhat. Last night the NWS was calling for 4-6 or 3-7 inches. I am guessing that we get another 1-3 this afternoon giving me 4-7 which is right in the range that was predicted. Thank you Thunderhead for your updates. We enjoy having you in our forum. Were Glad you come back to keep us informed of Western Pa. Let's enjoy the snow we get and there is still time for a few more storms before Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I just had a chance to look at the HRRR and if that works out we could see some more moderate snow move in after 2:00 and should snow until around 7 or 8 before ending tonight. Don't be surprised if we see 2-4 more. This also shows up on the Canadian model as you can see below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thank you all for the kind words...just trying to contribute when I can. always happy to see a met able to explain some technical things in our sub forum. Thank you. Are you from here Thunderhead? Yes--born and raised in the North Hills. Started reading weather maps, models, etc. as a hobbyist in 2002--great timing with a Jan. 2002 snowstorm, then pathetic rest of that winter, then awesome winter in 2002-03. I like posting here becasue I lived PIT climo for a number of years, plus still experience it when visiting family/friends, etc. Always appreciate your input. On the 6pm news, when Jeff was discussing the storm, he talked about light snows starting in the morning, then the dry slot would work in during the early afternoon. His graphic did show 3-6 over the area, but when he was on the radio about 4pm he called for 3-4 inches for the area. Guessing since the WSW was for 4-6 he may have expanded his totals on the graphic to show that. I think that for a lot of meteorologists, accuracy is the main goal. Otherwise, they hear about it from the public. They also get blamed for wrong forecasts that they didn't make. That probably wears a bit on a met but it's part of the territory. This is why I tend to defend JV when he seems to be going low but probably for a lot of events he ends up with a pretty accurate forecast. I hate it when TV mets go with high totals too early, with high uncertainty in the models, and then have the forecasts bust. (Although, to be fair, management might be the reason why some mets give early calls.) IIRC, DeNardo did not give snowfall totals 2 days out. He waited until 1 day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thank you all for the kind words...just trying to contribute when I can. Yes--born and raised in the North Hills. Started reading weather maps, models, etc. as a hobbyist in 2002--great timing with a Jan. 2002 snowstorm, then pathetic rest of that winter, then awesome winter in 2002-03. I like posting here becasue I lived PIT climo for a number of years, plus still experience it when visiting family/friends, etc. I think that for a lot of meteorologists, accuracy is the main goal. Otherwise, they hear about it from the public. They also get blamed for wrong forecasts that they didn't make. That probably wears a bit on a met but it's part of the territory. This is why I tend to defend JV when he seems to be going low but probably for a lot of events he ends up with a pretty accurate forecast. I hate it when TV mets go with high totals too early, with high uncertainty in the models, and then have the forecasts bust. (Although, to be fair, management might be the reason why some mets give early calls.) IIRC, DeNardo did not give snowfall totals 2 days out. He waited until 1 day out. What you have to understand is that we have very little trust in our locals. They tend to put out a map that looks the same for almost every storm, and tend to be overly conservative. I don't want weenies, but want someone that gives a clear impression of all scenarios. The 2/5/10 debacle they had, when they refused to up totals from 3-6 when we already had 4 inches by 6 eroded all confidence in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What you have to understand is that we have very little trust in our locals. They tend to put out a map that looks the same for almost every storm, and tend to be overly conservative. I don't want weenies, but want someone that gives a clear impression of all scenarios. The 2/5/10 debacle they had, when they refused to up totals from 3-6 when we already had 4 inches by 6 eroded all confidence in them. One storm they busted really bad. Our climo favors 3-6 type storms so the big unless its a 93 redux are hard to predict. You have to be conservative, throwing huge numbers out there creates panic and costs money. When this model is say 6, this one 8, this one 3 and two other 2. What is your forecast? Trust me Jeff V makes me mad also but he makes some good calls sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What you have to understand is that we have very little trust in our locals. They tend to put out a map that looks the same for almost every storm, and tend to be overly conservative. I don't want weenies, but want someone that gives a clear impression of all scenarios. The 2/5/10 debacle they had, when they refused to up totals from 3-6 when we already had 4 inches by 6 eroded all confidence in them. I can understand that, and I don't know why they kept totals so low for the 2010 storm. I miss DeNardo and Matt Morano--very good mets. Today, Steve MacLaughlin on WTAE is pretty good, and for those who can get WTOV from Steubenville, Jeff Oechslein and Kevin Carter are very good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvfd404 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I can understand that, and I don't know why they kept totals so low for the 2010 storm. I miss DeNardo and Matt Morano--very good mets. Today, Steve MacLaughlin on WTAE is pretty good, and for those who can get WTOV from Steubenville, Jeff Oechslein and Kevin Carter are very good too. I have to agree with you about the guys at wtov. Jeff and Kevin do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 One storm they busted really bad. Our climo favors 3-6 type storms so the big unless its a 93 redux are hard to predict. You have to be conservative, throwing huge numbers out there creates panic and costs money. When this model is say 6, this one 8, this one 3 and two other 2. What is your forecast? Trust me Jeff V makes me mad also but he makes some good calls sometimes. In this case though, 4-8 really looked like the norm on the models, and to go out and say 3-4 is pretty weak IMO. 2.5 as of 1130 at the kpit office, and I feel comfortable with another 2-3. Maybe I'm just splitting hairs here, but the locals almost never go more than 4-6 until it becomes obvious it will be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I can understand that, and I don't know why they kept totals so low for the 2010 storm. I miss DeNardo and Matt Morano--very good mets. Today, Steve MacLaughlin on WTAE is pretty good, and for those who can get WTOV from Steubenville, Jeff Oechslein and Kevin Carter are very good too. The only one who made the right call on that storm was Dennis bowman. He at lasted upped it to 8-12 that morning. I might be getting my guys confused, but then Jeff v came in at noon and knocked it down to 4-8. The nws nailed that one. We're 8-14 in the morning, and only had to slightly play catch up, but I don't blame them on that. We have a forecaster named fries who puts up excellent discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NWS updated totals; I assume this is for the total storm and not an additional forecast. If this verifies I'm not sure any model won. Certainly none of the models had this fairly large dry-slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 ^ They posted that map on Facebook and said it was for additional snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Up to 34 at Washington and Latrobe. 36 in Morgantown. Probably a few isolated upper 30s down near Mailman. Looks like the snow is over for the time being. Feels very mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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