southpark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Coming up this week on model wars......So its the EURO/GFS vs Canadian/UKMET The UKMET nailed the last storm. It picked up on the northern trend and low placement quicker than any other several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I know we get screwed regardless but I think that Arctic high is too damn strong for this to track further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I know we get screwed regardless but I think that Arctic high is too damn strong for this to track further north. I wouldn't be surprised if we were fringed on the north edge like last year with this system. I have a feeling this one is going to end up way south. Dont like being bullseye at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 18z GFS has an inverted trough show up for the first time that I've noticed. Could just be a one time blip, but it did do well for us last Monday. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I know we get screwed regardless but I think that Arctic high is too damn strong for this to track further north.True. With that high pressure in play, we at least have a chance with this one. Takes a very strong high to keep these storms from trending north like they tend to do. This one is strong so far. Hopefully, not too strong. Would be nice to be in the right spot for a change. Some more flip flopping to go with this being several days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 True. With that high pressure in play, we at least have a chance with this one. Takes a very strong high to keep these storms from trending north like they tend to do. This one is strong so far. Hopefully, not too strong. Would be nice to be in the right spot for a change. Some more flip flopping to go with this being several days away.Yeah its tough to get a storm here for some reason but this is a different set up. The GFS has a 1042 HP which will only allow this to come so far north. Also this is a northern stream system that is diving down SE, I like that better than a storm phasing and coming NW. As always its 5/6 days away and this will change. Keep watch but don't fall for the model trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 You cant write these things. I think everyone in this thread would delete their accounts if this verified verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 You cant write these things. I think everyone in this thread would delete their accounts if this verified verbatim I don't know. Even with that high to the north, it still seems like the low is going to be too far north again. Almost seems like we could put ten high pressures to the north and these lows still find a way to trend too far north for us. We just can't stay away from the slop. This is why you don't get excited about a storm 5 days out. Too much can change, and usually not for the better in our case. Even with this clipper moving in tonight, there are some p-type issues with it as well. I'm forecasted to get a mix later today before changing over to less than an inch later tonight. Business as usual for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I don't know. Even with that high to the north, it still seems like the low is going to be too far north again. Almost seems like we could put ten high pressures to the north and these lows still find a way to trend too far north for us. We just can't stay away from the slop. This is why you don't get excited about a storm 5 days out. Too much can change, and usually not for the better in our case. Even with this clipper moving in tonight, there are some p-type issues with it as well. I'm forecasted to get a mix later today before changing over to less than an inch later tonight. Business as usual for this area. With the AO and NAO being positive there is nothing to hold the highs or 50/50 lows in place so when a storm approaches it can have its way with the features to the North of us and move further North than would otherwise seem likely. We need the ridge out west to really pump up and be in the proper location so storms want to cut underneath of us if we are not getting any help from the AO \NAO. This upcoming storm is a mess right now so who knows how its going to end up but it seems the evolution keeps changing and models keep hinting at some cutoff long duration precipitation setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Late weekend event doesn't look good at this point for much of anything. So enjoy tonights clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Nothing really favorable on the 12z models I have looked at (GFS & Canadian) Although I'm not really concerned at this point. If models were right 4-5 days out for the last storm I'd have 2 feet in my back yard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Nothing really favorable on the 12z models I have looked at (GFS & Canadian) Although I'm not really concerned at this point. If models were right 4-5 days out for the last storm I'd have 2 feet in my back yard right now. Yea, but last weekends storm had phasing to work out. This is just northern stream energy so shouldn't see the big changes like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 ttached thumbnail(s) Reduced 38% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yea, but last weekends storm had phasing to work out. This is just northern stream energy so shouldn't see the big changes like last week. If these models ever right we wouldn't need meteoligist,.. I think our chances are good when models say are chances are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That clipper is 6 states long. Looks like a hot dog. Lmao. It that 800 mile long band all went over us we get 6 inches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 To all the models. As far as I am concerned if it's not going to snow it may as well warm up. I am sick of taking the dog out and trudging through the ice glaciers trying to find him places to do his business. Maybe we can still land that one large storm sometime this month or early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 To all the models. As far as I am concerned if it's not going to snow it may as well warm up. I am sick of taking the dog out and trudging through the ice glaciers trying to find him places to do his business. Maybe we can still land that one large storm sometime this month or early March.That's what I always say to. About the snow I mean, not the dog since I don't have one. I'm sure we have some melting going on right now with temps in the 40s and lots of sun. We'll have more glaciers reform later after we get our inch or so and the cold moves back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yea, but last weekends storm had phasing to work out. This is just northern stream energy so shouldn't see the big changes like last week. Well this "event" has several pieces of energy riding along the boundary. Models won't have a good handle on how any of these pieces affect us or if its cold enough this far out. I'm not saying look for this to end up in our favor, cause it probably won't, just that I'm not going to be over joyed or dismayed by anything I see until Saturday. I think the whole area in general looks good for a 2-3 inch swath of snow from the clipper. I wonder what the liquid equivalent of the snow pack is given its been rained on twice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 33% 956 x 532 (157.63K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That clipper is 6 states long. Looks like a hot dog. Lmao. It that 800 mile long band all went over us we get 6 inches. Lol Its longer than that. It goes from northern Maine like a chain up to northern Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 My finger is hovering above the "winter cancel" button at this point. I'm giving it until Valentine's Day to give us something, throw us any kind of bone (that could include a real pattern change). If nothing at that point, it's over. I'll take my 7" and run into summer 'til next year, as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 48 here in Monroeville, warmer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Dark and non sun and snow cover will bring temps back to reality befour clipper skips over r area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Its longer than that. It goes from northern Maine like a chain up to northern Washington. Lol. That's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Like · · Share · 898167 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 48 here in Monroeville, warmer than expected. Today is making it easy to root for nicer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 My finger is hovering above the "winter cancel" button at this point. I'm giving it until Valentine's Day to give us something, throw us any kind of bone (that could include a real pattern change). If nothing at that point, it's over. I'll take my 7" and run into summer 'til next year, as they say. Yeah, I can't blame you, it's been pretty tough down your way especially. This is a bit of a long shot, but Monday night into Tuesday, if that low could deepen faster, possibly enough moisture could make it up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yeah, I can't blame you, it's been pretty tough down your way especially. This is a bit of a long shot, but Monday night into Tuesday, if that low could deepen faster, possibly enough moisture could make it up your way. Well this should be perfect for us up here in wester pa. He prays for north it comes north for him then last minute it goes more north screwing him and getting us up here who are north of him. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 36. Here. Plum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 808 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 OHZ040-041-050-PAZ020>023-029-073-WVZ001-002-050330- CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG- INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...STEUBENVILLE... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...WEIRTON...BETHANY 808 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 ...A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW LIKELY... AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 830 AND 1030 PM. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES...AND ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. THOSE VENTURING OUR SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF INTERSTATES 376...279...AND 79 THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AS WELL AS ALL OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. $$ FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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