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January 11-12 Snow/Mixed Precip


Hoosier

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It looks like there will be a sucker hole between the fgen band to the north and WAA precip to the south tomorrow evening, most likely within 50 miles or so of the Kankakee.  Remind me not to jump this time tomorrow.   ;)

 

I'm thinking 3-4" is a good range for down here.  I'm feeling a little more bearish on ratios, since the DGZ is modeled to be pretty thin (~75 mb or less) and the best omega looks to be below it until the tail end of the precip.  I would guess closer to 12:1 or perhaps even slightly lower, though I'm certainly not an expert at ratios.  Counterbalance that with the tendency for fgen bands to overperform and you can turn modeled QPFs generally in the 0.25-0.3" range into 4" with a little bit of luck.

 

The wild card for NW IN and Chicago will be any light lake-effect.  850 mb temps drop to around -12 C by Monday afternoon/evening per the 4km NAM and other models, which will produce delta T's of 17-18 C (lake surface temps around 40-42 F over open water this evening), but with the dry Arctic air moving in behind the front, inversion heights will be awfully low for anything significant.  Not only that, but with winds backing as the High drifts southward, there'd be little time for a band to organize since the convergence axis will be continually shifting westward.  Could be an inch or so extra in one or two lucky spots but as I just laid out, lots working against anything more than that.

 

 

Inversion heights seem to struggle to even get up to 850 mb on forecast soundings.  Delta T between the lake and about 900 mb is alright, but that's awfully shallow.  :lol:

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You and Gil swingin' long ball. I like it. 

 

I respect 100% of other peep's calls over mine...that being said, originally I was picturing spending my sunday evening hoping the defo band could just inch north another 30 miles while some thinner bands set up overhead and to the north in your neck of the woods.  With the definitive shift over the last 36 hours I am wondering if I don't spend the sunday evening picking up a few inches and watching the "ripping" band hover just to my north up by you.  It really is tricky at this juncture to pin down where she will park.  The one thing that I (always take with a grain of salt) can say with decent confidence is that someone should get a decent high end WWA thump. 

 

It's not much....but the orientation of the defo band has also been shifting ever so slightly...and with us being on the fringes so to speak, it really can play a key role (obv).  This is by no means a classic pivot point set-up...but, if short range continues even the slightest trend toward bring a little more north south to the defo band (as opposed to the current just north of due east)...then I think a Peru to Mt Prospect line does pretty well. 

 

Bottom line....I'm pondering flip flopping my ORD and MBY calls....but since I usually roll with my original I'll stick with it.

 

Curious to see how solid the feed is in the morning down south and orientation of the bleeding in "cold" air...

 

fwiw

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Usually I don't call out forecasts from WPC/NWS but I think they are ignoring trends and placement of the better snows to the north, tbh most of the area they highlight is looking more s***t and freezing rain.

 

Yeah. I'm ok with the areas they already have in the swath, but it should definitely include areas further NW as well (unless they're going by the dry GFS or NMM/ARW verbatim).

 

BTW, take a look at the interesting evolution the 06z RAP is projecting...

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LOT having some in house debate:

Yesterday PM AFD: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON OUR INCREASING

CHANCES FOR A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

This AM: HAVE LOWER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW

1-3 call from yesterday probably had this covered. Call for 1"in MBY this AM probably a case of over tuning. Haven't seen any real guidance that changed from last evening.

I've seen folks have to play some major catch up in theses set ups. Anyway, be fun to watch while taking in a Cowboys and Bronco win.

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12km NAM came in very moist here .3-.4" liquid equivalent with even a pocket of >.4" just east of here.

at this point idk why dtx is being SO conservative. Guidance qpf for DTW is now 0.25-0.35" yet they still say 1-2" with locally higher possible? :huh: . And they dont even mention qpf in their discussion, which they usually do. This seems to be one of the rare times powerball is bullish so lets do this!

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LOT having some in house debate:

Yesterday PM AFD: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON OUR INCREASING

CHANCES FOR A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

This AM: HAVE LOWER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW

1-3 call from yesterday probably had this covered. Call for 1"in MBY this AM probably a case of over tuning. Haven't seen any real guidance that changed from last evening.

I've seen folks have to play some major catch up in theses set ups. Anyway, be fun to watch while taking in a Cowboys and Bronco win.

 

Romo is Romotose today lol.  There's a lot going on from this WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

Pretty wild setup for January IMO.  My P&C is calling for 2-4 of snow and sleet.  Then 20 miles north, 1 in of snow and sleet, 20 miles south .4 of ice and 1 in of sleet.  Pretty crazy calls.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the heavy ice line move farther NE in my area.  Either or, a big chunck of moisture is being ejected North with this.  An isolated area somewhere from central IL. to  North Central OH. is gonna get pretty well hammered with some substantial winter precip.  Would love to see the warm nose hit a brick wall south of I-70 so I don't have to deal with that ice on the way to work tomorrow morning. :yikes:

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Congrats Lambton County! And this model sort of shows the downsloping effect north of Toronto, while the 6z NAM has the whole length of the east side of the escarpment getting screwed. NAM really was the only model to pick up on that qpf minima with the previous clipper and with a 210-240 flow it's hard not to want to run with it again.

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