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IsentropicLift

Friday 1/9 Light Snow Event

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In general, looks like a quick inch or so for most with a chance of 2-3" as you head further N and W. RGEM cut the amounts in half for much of NNJ and where it showed close to 5" for NW NJ, it now shows around 2", but it was the outlier anyway. Mood flakes for sure, though we still wait for a significant snow

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I probably shouldn't have buried this in the banter thread:

 

 

There is a small window of opportunity for some OES / enhancement over eastern LI tomorrow morning.  I am reminded of this:

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/images/sidebars/OES-20050119.gif

 

OKX is considering something similar and updated the AFD with the following at 10:22PM:

 

A FEW FLURRIES OR POCKETS OF LGT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LI AND ERN CT WITH THE DEVELOPING STRATUS...OTHERWISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

 

Not sure if there are any flurries out that way yet, but radar has been picking up the effect of the SW flow over the south fork all evening.  Ocean temps are about 6 to 8C close to the shore and warmer further south.  850s aren't expected to warm to any more than about -7 or -8, so plenty of Delta-T for OES.  I am not sure how the expected high winds will affect this, but they are expected to have a decent onshore fetch.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0Q-1-12

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Radar looks pretty impressive over Pennsylvania.  Not sure how well that will translate for the metro area.  Should be a messy commute this morning.

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temps have skyrocketed on the strong sw winds overnight with many south shore locales at or even above freezing as of 4:30am  I didn't expect to be flirting with the freezing mark this early but this goes to show you how ocean temps in the low 40;s just offshore can wreak havoc at the surface when combined with strong winds off those waters

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temps have skyrocketed on the strong sw winds overnight with many south shore locales at or even above freezing as of 4:30am I didn't expect to be flirting with the freezing mark this early but this goes to show you how ocean temps in the low 40;s just offshore can wreak havoc at the surface when combined with strong winds off those waters

33 here with winds absolutely screaming off the water. Easily advisory gusts. Luckily this was never a big deal for us or I would be pissed. Radar looks great N of the city for a couple inches.

It's still cold aloft here so it's still going to snow just not stick right near the water

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Guest Pamela

It'll soon get lost under the brighter returns of the approaching synoptic snows, but you can see OES bands trying to get organized along the NJ coast.  Looks like perhaps SSW winds along the shore:

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-24

 

It would not surprise me in the least if Long Island ends up with some of the heaviest amounts because of the thermal contrast setting up.  OKX predicts smallest amounts for Long Island...as I've written previously, they generally refuse to reason outside the box. 

As for the post above regarding potential for something other than snow...that is a non issue. 

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