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Friday 01/09 Light snow event w/ Observations


Damage In Tolland

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euro is a bonafide 1-2" probably more with ratios. That's an absolute win for this winter.

I just wasn't following where he was getting that number from? My only thought was he was thinking the map that Freak posted was for the event. What he posted was for Friday night 00z into Saturday night 00z from upslope...after the event

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No his map included the entire event. But to be fair, it's the driest model run out of all guidance for SNE.

 

The 00z/6z NAM was pretty bone dry down south with what looked like squalls from N.VT through southern Maine...

 

But now the 12z NAM is a little more robust to the south with the band of snows/squalls.

 

 

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it would seem to me that the best chance of more stratiform synoptic snows would be in central and northern New England closer to the track of the low but southern New England could also cash in with a band of snow showers and squalls ahead of and along the cold front. it looks like the GFS is farther north with the track of the low than some of the other guidance.

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GFS and ParaGFS guidance are in good agreement with the clipper/snows going north of SNE and basically anyone south of the pike seeing 0.0". 

On the other hand, EURO/GGEM/NAVGEM guidance is in good agreement with the event being more of a regionwide deal, with anyone in SNE basically getting at least a coating and various areas(SEMA/BOS is the most hit in SNE) falling into that 1-3" window depending on which guidance you believe. 

 

12z NAM is a compromise between those two solutions as is the 9z SREF.

I'm inclined to lean towards GFS guidance given that it's a northern stream event which they typically handle better, they have been performing well recently, and they nailed the last clipper in the mid/short range, but a compromise between the two would make most happy I think. We'll see what happens, but there's a chance for this to be what today was and won't be, that is, a regionwide light snowfall. 

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GFS and ParaGFS guidance are in good agreement with the clipper/snows going north of SNE and basically anyone south of the pike seeing 0.0". 

On the other hand, EURO/GGEM/NAVGEM guidance is in good agreement with the event being more of a regionwide deal, with anyone in SNE basically getting at least a coating and various areas(SEMA/BOS is the most hit in SNE) falling into that 1-3" window depending on which guidance you believe. 

 

12z NAM is a compromise between those two solutions as is the 9z SREF.

I'm inclined to lean towards GFS guidance given that it's a northern stream event which they typically handle better, they have been performing well recently, and they nailed the last clipper in the mid/short range, but a compromise between the two would make most happy I think. We'll see what happens, but there's a chance for this to be what today was and won't be, that is, a regionwide light snowfall. 

I distinctly remember Scooter saying just last week..the GFS does not handle N stream better and he has not noticed that to be the case

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I distinctly remember Scooter saying just last week..the GFS does not handle N stream better and he has not noticed that to be the case

Yeah the GFS did better around this range in today's clipper but in the long run I have not seen any evidence that the GFS is better handling northern stream systems over the Euro

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I distinctly remember Scooter saying just last week..the GFS does not handle N stream better and he has not noticed that to be the case

My opinion, from watching a lot of these systems over the last several years, is that it most certainly does. Look at last winter when basically all we had was northern stream events and notice that the GFS was first to pick up on them in almost every situation. I don't think there's any pure science behind it one way or the other, but I've noticed it enough at least over the short and medium term that I'll take it into account in my forecasting.

 

That doesn't mean however that it's going to be right all the time. A EUROlike solution is still certainly possible, especially given that most of the guidance supports it. Just have to watch guidance and trends over the next few cycles and see what we've got.

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Well for the most part, regardless of which model handles it better, we're talking like hundredths of an inch of precipitation differences...like the differences between 0.01" and 0.07".  Probably not worth thinking too much about it.  Its not like the model differences right now are between one area getting warning snows on one model, and nothing on the other.  In the model world, its a fairly minute difference between them.

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Yeah the GFS did better around this range in today's clipper but in the long run I have not seen any evidence that the GFS is better handling northern stream systems over the Euro

 

It definitely did better here, but I can't find or think of any reason why it would handle nrn stream systems better. Unless, someone was trying to argue it's performance in progressive flows which perhaps is a better argument.

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Well for the most part, regardless of which model handles it better, we're talking like hundredths of an inch of precipitation differences...like the differences between 0.01" and 0.07".  Probably not worth thinking too much about it.  Its not like the model differences right now are between one area getting warning snows on one model, and nothing on the other.  In the model world, its a fairly minute difference between them.

Up there sure, but down here where the biggest event I've experienced IMBY so far this winter is 0.3"(I wasn't in Boston for either of the two 1"+ events this winter), the ~1.5" that the EURO has for me would be a win on the level of warning snows in my book. It's a different perspective when you've got 52" on the season and multiple warning events compared to when you have 4.3".

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It definitely did better here, but I can't find or think of any reason why it would handle nrn stream systems better. Unless, someone was trying to argue it's performance in progressive flows which perhaps is a better argument.

That's probably a better way to word it, yes.

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Up there sure, but down here where the biggest event I've experienced IMBY so far this winter is 0.3"(I wasn't in Boston for either of the two 1"+ events this winter), the ~1.5" that the EURO has for me would be a win on the level of warning snows in my book. It's a different perspective when you've got 52" on the season and multiple warning events compared to when you have 4.3".

I'm not saying it in that regard... Just that given that QPF and precip in one of the worst scoring fields, the overall QPF differences of hundredths of an inch isn't going to mean a lot. A shortwave and arctic FROPA will move through but models are usually bad with locations of heaviest moisture when it's such minute amounts. Just because the GFS is dry doesn't mean you can't get an inch or two of fluff if the squalls hold together nicely or something like that.

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I'm not saying it in that regard... Just that given that QPF and precip in one of the worst scoring fields, the overall QPF differences of hundredths of an inch isn't going to mean a lot. A shortwave and arctic FROPA will move through but models are usually bad with locations of heaviest moisture when it's such minute amounts. Just because the GFS is dry doesn't mean you can't get an inch or two of fluff if the squalls hold together nicely or something like that.

I suppose, but it seemed to be more of a fundamental difference with the positioning of the system with the GFS having it further north. No big deal either way.

 

GGEM continues to advertise a coating to an inch for everyone with maybe up to 2" in NWCT/Wrn MA. More interested to see what the EURO does though.

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Yup, looked nice yesterday or a lil more promising, but just as we thought, today it has gone to Sh*t once again....just plain out sad.

It looks fine on everything but the GFS/ParaGFS for a coating to an inch(EURO not out yet though will update when it is out), which has basically been the ceiling with this all along. Expect nothing, if you get a c-1" great, if not oh well.

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Euro is still looks good for around an inch for most of SNE. Maybe a even a little boost for the coast as it moves east offshore.

Not a big ceiling on this one but some good WAA should be enough to squeeze out a minor event. Obviously still 3 days out so minor changes can happen.

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