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klw

NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2

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-19 at my shack this morning.

 

Weird set-up on the way--should be interesting to watch unfold.

 

 

agreed.  can't really get a good grasp of what to expect.

I'm fine with not being in the bull's-eye for large events, as long as we keep receiving regular refreshers of 4"-6", especially since it hasn't been melting. If this event or events wants to shift south with the big stuff, that's fine.  Any snow is good snow. Except for the holiday Grinch period, I couldn't have drawn up a better winter, for me.  I know other people want continuous big storms but I'm fine keeping the status quo for now.

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I'm fine with not being in the bull's-eye for large events, as long as we keep receiving regular refreshers of 4"-6", especially since it hasn't been melting. If this event or events wants to shift south with the big stuff, that's fine.  Any snow is good snow. Except for the holiday Grinch period, I couldn't have drawn up a better winter, for me.  I know other people want continuous big storms but I'm fine keeping the status quo for now.

 

Had 6 full weeks of boring/meh, mild grinchey meh in Dec, cold meh in Jan.  Sure ended with a bang, however, and I'm way above my avg both for snowfall and pack.  And the near future remains ver-r-r-y interesting.

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Will be interesting to see how it does play out and if we get more snow, how that will affect the play at the Vermont Pond Hockey Championship this weekend.  I will be out there all day Saturday and Sunday again this year keeping score and enjoying the free food and beer for keeping score :).  Here is the webcam to check out the action.

http://www.lakemoreyresort.com/webcam

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BTV goes with a Winter Storm Watch... not sure we'd hit warning criteria in any 12 or 24 hour period.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
241 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED
  HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF AN HOUR AT TIMES SUNDAY
  MORNING AND MONDAY.

* TIMING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW LIKELY
  AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
  THIS LONG DURATION EVENT.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS 10 TO 20.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW.

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agreed.  can't really get a good grasp of what to expect.

 

I'm sort of confused on this as well; I went into the main thread for the event hoping to get some clarity, but it didn’t really help.  With that said, I did see that Winter Storm Watches are up for the area, so clearly the BTV NWS things that there is potential for some impact:

 

06FEB15A.jpg

 

A projected accumulations map is out, with this area in the 12-15" range:

 

06FEB15B.jpg

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I could see like 2-3" per day for 2-3 days straight type of deal.  Its not overly exciting but its basically what our weather is like often enough in the winter, occasional accumulating snow showers for a few days.

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I could see like 2-3" per day for 2-3 days straight type of deal.  Its not overly exciting but its basically what our weather is like often enough in the winter, occasional accumulating snow showers for a few days.

 

I agree. It is essentially not one single storm. There are a number of clipper like shortwaves that will rotate through the region as an upper level trough has established itself over the region.  With light moisture each clipper system is not that exciting. However, each wave gets a little enhanced as it moves over our region from the orographic uplift and we get a series of 1-3" events in quick succession.

 

The largest of the series is a wave that looks to dig a litter deeper into the OH valley on Sunday night into monday. That should wrap some additional moisture into the system and some warm air advection snows as well. So prob. more a 4-7" type event early Monday am into Monday night.  ....

 

Add that all up and its prob. a solid 10-18" from tonight through tuesday AM.  

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I was just thinking.  For my backyard, a forecast range of 8-16" is probably the most unhelpful snowfall range possible.  You're saying I could get a pedestrian amount of snow we see several times every winter, or a crippling amount that hasn't happened in 14 years.

 

/miscellaneous rant

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I was just thinking.  For my backyard, a forecast range of 8-16" is probably the most unhelpful snowfall range possible.  You're saying I could get a pedestrian amount of snow we see several times every winter, or a crippling amount that hasn't happened in 14 years.

 

/miscellaneous rant

You haven't had 16" in 14 years? What about Jan 2011?

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Thank you for linking that Brian - that was fun!  Not going to come home from Savannah this weekend because doesn't seem like the storm will be intense enough, and I would have to be able to definitely leave on Monday night - might be hard to get out of MHT or BOS Monday afternoon/eve.

 

But it seems like we reload mid-month and I'm sure my roof will need to be raked and I will just have to come home.  In th 50s today, and sunny...headed for 70 this weekend.

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Snowing nice big flakes...was surprised to see almost an inch down in the last two 2 hours or so. Radar has upslope look to it, wonder if the mountain gets a surprise 2-4" tonight.

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Thank you for linking that Brian - that was fun!  Not going to come home from Savannah this weekend because doesn't seem like the storm will be intense enough, and I would have to be able to definitely leave on Monday night - might be hard to get out of MHT or BOS Monday afternoon/eve.

 

But it seems like we reload mid-month and I'm sure my roof will need to be raked and I will just have to come home.  In th 50s today, and sunny...headed for 70 this weekend.

The next week looks awesome for deep, deep winter. Enjoy the warmth though. ;)

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Snowing here. Little over an inch otg.

Don't know whether to get ready and get to the mtn at 7:15 tomorrow morning or take my time. Saying it's going to snow a foot between now and Tuesday doesn't really inform any decision making. However, it sure to be a great few days so no complaints.

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Snowing here. Little over an inch otg.

Don't know whether to get ready and get to the mtn at 7:15 tomorrow morning or take my time. Saying it's going to snow a foot between now and Tuesday doesn't really inform any decision making. However, it sure to be a great few days so no complaints.

Proceed as normal. Snowing a foot in 4 days is pretty standard stuff where you and PF are lol.

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.01" L.E.

 

There's some very dry snow falling out there this evening, with a good band currently aimed down the Winooski Valley:

 

06FEB15A.gif

 

Details from the 11:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 70.0

Snow Density: 1.4% H2O

Temperature: 15.8 F

Sky: Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 17.0"

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Snowing nice big flakes...was surprised to see almost an inch down in the last two 2 hours or so. Radar has upslope look to it, wonder if the mountain gets a surprise 2-4" tonight.

Wow 3.5" at home last night!

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What an awesome stretch of winter :) We are going to have some solid depths by CPV standards following this next event.

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