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klw

NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2

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.1 overnight and we were closing in on that second tenth.  Conditions were brutal out there, the plows were nary to be seen probably either snowed into place or frozen by the wicked temps.  The sea was angry that day my friend.

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As we have hit the halfway point in the Mreaves winter (Thanksgiving through the end of March), I have been thinking about what grade I would give it so far.  I have to say that this winter has been almost perfect, to me.  We had good, QPF heavy, snow early, that built a great base.  The December temp at KMPV ended up +3.5° but our snow pack survived the annual Grinch stretch through the holidays and we seemed to be able to somehow stitch together net gainers, or at least no really big melters in that stretch.  Early January continued with theme where we were able to avoid a complete melt down even though the temp hit 50° on the 4th.  Things have steadily improved since then.  KMPV hasn't been above freezing since it hit 34° on the 19th and haven't hit 30° since the 24th. Even though we haven't been in bullseye for big snowstorms like they have in SNE, we have had regular bouts of snow that just haven't gone anywhere or even sublimated all that much.  January ended up -5.2° and February has started of with a bit of a chill too, -17.2° for the first 3 days. 

 

Overall, I would give this winter an A- up to this point.  The only black mark is the seemingly annual Grinch period around the holidays.  The snow pack is in great shape with a depth of 18" to 22" in my yard.  It is a really durable snowpack too, with a qpf heavy base topped with powder.  Our snowmobile trails are in fantastic shape and the ski areas have done well.  Personally, I like a pattern that gives us regular 4"-6" refreshers, punctuated by the occasional bigger storm.  It keeps things nice and wintry without overwhelming you with the work that goes along with snow removal etc.  For my purposes, this is pretty close to the perfect winter.  Now, if we could only shed ourselves of the Grinch.

 

I would have to agree with that. The Grinch was a total loss here but other than that it has been solid and nice distributed snowfalls for the ski areas. I guess my hope would be for at least one more double digit snow before the winter ends. We had one in December.

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Probably touched -20 this pre-dawn before the clouds rolled in. Not many mornings when my cocorahs comment is -17 and cloudy.

Have not taken a close look at grading winter so far. Hopwever, January went from D+ (F for snow, A- for cold) to A- all around with the two late-month storms. Just tossing grades out, Nov. is A or B, Dec is probably a D.

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I just saw the snow totals map for Winter Storm Linus on the BTV NWS Facebook Page; it looks like our area got into that stripe of enhanced snow along the eastern slopes near the middle of Washington County that tacked on an extra inch or two.  The 9.6" total shown for our location actually incorporates 0.1" from the previous event on Sunday, where 0.1" fell after the morning report and was carried over into Monday's CoCoRaHS report.

 

03FEB15A.jpg

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I just saw the snow totals map for Winter Storm Linus on the BTV NWS Facebook Page; it looks like our area got into that stripe of enhanced snow along the eastern slopes near the middle of Washington County that tacked on an extra inch or two.  The 9.6" total shown for our location actually incorporates 0.1" from the previous event on Sunday, where 0.1" fell after the morning report and was carried over into Monday's CoCoRaHS report.

 

03FEB15A.jpg

 

Both BTV and I reported about the same total. I am not sure why those were not in there instead of the lower 5 and 5.5 when we had 6 and change.

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It's been snowing pretty steadily here in Burlington so I looked at the radar and the precipitation has indeed been building into the area:

 

04FEB15A.gif

 

There was just that trace at the house this morning, but it looks like a half an inch or so now via web cam.

 

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Another overperforming night of cold.... low of -5.2

the lake must really be losing its heat flux now. You're just a radiating bowl now.

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the lake must really be losing its heat flux now. You're just a radiating bowl now.

Yeah there isn't much open water left.  All the fog last night was just steaming off the water as if someone dumped in a few tons of dry ice. 

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h7fi1.gif

 

via Imgflip GIF Maker

 

Individual frames can be found here.

 

The last frame shows ice in the middle of the main lake.

The big part of Sebago Lake over here has not frozen. At this point, it won't, but last winter it did and I'm surprised as I think this Jan overall was colder. Certainly had lower lows even on wind-free nights. Tough lake to freeze up.

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2-3" at the mountain this morning and about an inch at home. Radar had a good look for just over the Spine all this morning, as I've found the heavier composite echoes over western Chittenden County usually come with some eastward drift as those flakes fall.

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2-3" at the mountain this morning and about an inch at home. Radar had a good look for just over the Spine all this morning, as I've found the heavier composite echoes over western Chittenden County usually come with some eastward drift as those flakes fall.

 

Really nice conditions out there. This morning the snow picked up around the Bolton Flats and then was a steady small flake with little wind right up through the alpine. 

 

Right now it's sunny(ish) in downtown BTV and for the first time, I can see the broad lake beginning to close in with ice.  For the first few years here the broad lake never froze over. Now it looks like it might be two years in a row....which would be awesome cause I totally flaked last season by NOT riding a snow kite across to the NY side. 

 

Tonight also looks positive for a 3-5" type snowfall. Omega looks good in the snow growth region from about 21Z through 9Z tonight across the spine. WRF has a solid .3" in 12hrs with a little more down towards the rutland way.....keep it coming and I'm going to get fired. 

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The Eastport, Maine snowfall got me thinking into heaviest periods of snow in VT, and the Jay Peak Coop at the base (1,800ft?) seems to be the winner out of observed and recorded totals.

 

December 2003...had an 80" total in 5 days from that Co-Op.  This actually seems semi-legit too as Dec 14-15 had that super band across NVT into NNY where Plattsburgh got 3 feet of snow, too.  Then there was that pasty event right after that on the night of the 17th where I remember we had +TSSN in BTV, followed by significant mountain upslope. 

 

12/15/03...38"

12/16/03...8"

12/17/03...0"

12/18/03...18"...2.10" liquid

12/19/03...16"...1.05" liquid

1020 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
FLOOD STAGE PRESENT TEMPS SNOW
STATION STAGE PCPN /POOL WEATHER MAX MIN CUR NEW TTL LIQ
JAY PEAK HEAVY SNOW 20 -1 18 38.0 67
1023 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2003
FLOOD STAGE PRESENT TEMPS SNOW
STATION STAGE PCPN /POOL WEATHER MAX MIN CUR NEW TTL LIQ
JAY PEAK CLEAR 20 7 8 8.0 76
937 AM EST WED DEC 17 2003
             FLOOD        STAGE    PRESENT      TEMPS        SNOW
STATION      STAGE  PCPN  /POOL    WEATHER   MAX MIN CUR  NEW TTL LIQ
JAY PEAK            0.00         CLOUDY       48   7  28  0.0 76
941 AM EST THU DEC 18 2003
             FLOOD        STAGE    PRESENT      TEMPS        SNOW
STATION      STAGE  PCPN  /POOL    WEATHER   MAX MIN CUR  NEW TTL LIQ
JAY PEAK            2.10         HEAVY SNOW   39  24  24 18.0 90
942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2003
             FLOOD        STAGE    PRESENT      TEMPS        SNOW
STATION      STAGE  PCPN  /POOL    WEATHER   MAX MIN CUR  NEW TTL LIQ
JAY PEAK            1.05         CLEAR        32  12  12 16.0 100

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.04" L.E.

 

There was 0.9" at the house from today's event; the BTV NWS indicates that is was due to warm air advection from a weak mid level shortwave.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 22.5

Snow Density: 4.4% H2O

Temperature: 26.8 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 15.5"

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BTV's evening update...good nowcast disco.

&& Near term /until 7 am Thursday morning/... as of 926 PM EST Wednesday...minor updates to temperature trends...as well as probability of precipitation and snowfall in the Vermont valleys with the middle-evening update. Forecast largely remains on track with Arctic frontal boundary now merging with pre-frontal trough feature and advancing steadily across New York...having cleared many slv sites at the 900 PM hour. Based off observations and latest rap/lamp output...raised mins by a degree or two...really noise- level adjustments as planetary boundary layer mixing and lingering clouds should act to put a slight break on temperatures. Still trending quite chilly by morning however with lows 0 to 10 above north...and teens south. Latest rap/WRF quantitative precipitation forecast output would suggest snowfall totals in the Champlain Valley and CT River Valley from St Johnsbury south will be slightly lower than prior indications with continued shadowing effects until frontal passage. Still looking at a 1-2 inch event in these locales...but limited generally to a 1-2 hour period of shsn/brief squalls directly ahead of and along the front. Somewhat higher totals of 2-4 inches with spot totals to near 5 inches at Summit level still look on track for the northern mountains above 1000 feet or so as blocking effects aid in mesoscale lifting processes. Have a great night. &&

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BTV's evening update...good nowcast disco.

&& Near term /until 7 am Thursday morning/... as of 926 PM EST Wednesday...minor updates to temperature trends...as well as probability of precipitation and snowfall in the Vermont valleys with the middle-evening update. Forecast largely remains on track with Arctic frontal boundary now merging with pre-frontal trough feature and advancing steadily across New York...having cleared many slv sites at the 900 PM hour. Based off observations and latest rap/lamp output...raised mins by a degree or two...really noise- level adjustments as planetary boundary layer mixing and lingering clouds should act to put a slight break on temperatures. Still trending quite chilly by morning however with lows 0 to 10 above north...and teens south. Latest rap/WRF quantitative precipitation forecast output would suggest snowfall totals in the Champlain Valley and CT River Valley from St Johnsbury south will be slightly lower than prior indications with continued shadowing effects until frontal passage. Still looking at a 1-2 inch event in these locales...but limited generally to a 1-2 hour period of shsn/brief squalls directly ahead of and along the front. Somewhat higher totals of 2-4 inches with spot totals to near 5 inches at Summit level still look on track for the northern mountains above 1000 feet or so as blocking effects aid in mesoscale lifting processes. Have a great night. &&

 

Bleh I hate shadowing :)

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Man does this winter feel like a fail so far compared to what everyone else is getting. We're in on every event, but it's always sloppy seconds. :lol:

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Man does this winter feel like a fail so far compared to what everyone else is getting. We're in on every event, but it's always sloppy seconds. :lol:

 

Yes, sloppy seconds.  Don't know if you can see the snow stake in the field but there is 13-14" on the ground.  Last 2 storms were in the 7" range.  It looks and feels wintery but a thin snow cover for Central NH with some elevation.   I didn't bother to measure but looks like around 1 1/2" last night.

 

Deer are in the fields every night digging for apples.  That ice storm a few weeks back makes it near impossible for them to dig through.  Lots of work to find one frozen apple.

post-268-0-36953500-1423153141_thumb.jpg

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