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klw

NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2

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Not happening in town this morning... had 0.6" around 5:15am but when I got to the mountain at 5:30am there was 2.2" up here at 1,500ft. 

 

Rare blocked SW flow is putting most of this snow in the Champlain Valley and west slopes to the Spine.  You don't have to go far east of the Spine on this side to see it start to drop off fast.  Luckily the mountain seems to be doing alright, as it sounds like there's over 3" at 3000ft with heavier snow. 

 

Froude numbers are real low, which is odd for a SSW wind, but you can see BTV has had much lower visibilities all night compared with MVL and MPV which haven't had impressive obs.  Pretty cool meso-scale stuff going on this morning.

 

Yeah it definitely looks to be the case that the feared shadowing didn't really occur. About 3.5 or so it looks like.

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.11" L.E.

 

The accumulation overnight was right in line with the 1-2" that the BTV NWS called for here. 

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.11 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 14.5

Snow Density: 6.9% H2O

Temperature: 25.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.5"

 

Northern Vermont is still under a Winter Weather Advisory through 1:00 A.M. tomorrow, as is the rest of the state, with Winter Storm Warnings off to the east in New HampshireWind Chill Warnings have now taken over in a lot of Northern New York:

 

30JAN15A.jpg

 

In his early WDEV broadcast this morning, Roger Hill was really downplaying any additional snow from this system, mentioning just an inch or two.  That doesn't really seem to jive with the Winter Weather Advisory, which mentions accumulations of 4-6":

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

356 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

 

VTZ001>008-010-016>018-310000-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WC.Y.0004.150131T0000Z-150131T1800Z/

/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-150131T0600Z/

GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-

LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...

NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...

ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON

356 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST

SATURDAY...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM

EST SATURDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...UNTIL 1 AM EST

SATURDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWESTERN...NORTH CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN

  VERMONT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY...AND BITTERLY COLD

  WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY

  THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

 

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 26 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES 5

  BELOW TO 19 ABOVE ZERO...AND WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH

  GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO

  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS

  WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING

  CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ON ROADS FOR THE

  FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS

  OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED

  SKIN IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.

 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 6 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 2 TO 31

  ABOVE.

 

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND

  BLOWING SNOW.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT

VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND

BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN

AREAS.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS

WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN

FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND

GLOVES.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

Our point forecast still suggests another 3-6" as well, and the the storm total snow snowfall map from the BTV NWS also got another bump; there's a more substantial covering of 6-8" in the northern part of the state, and areas of 8-10" are also showing up:

 

30JAN15B.jpg


 

The north to south listing of available snowfall totals for this event from the Vermont ski areas is listed below; totals thus far are in the 2-4" range in the northern half of the state, tapering a bit to 1-3" in the southern half of the state:

 

Jay Peak: 2”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 2”

Sugarbush: 4”

Middlebury: 2”

Pico: 3”

Killington: 3”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 3”

Magic Mountain: 1.5”

Stratton: 2”

Mount Snow: 1”

 

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Our point forecast still suggests another 3-6" as well, and the the storm total snow snowfall map from the BTV NWS also got another bump; there's a more substantial covering of 6-8" in the northern part of the state, and areas of 8-10" are also showing up:

 

30JAN15B.jpg

 

 

 

We're really going to have to pick it up some to get to the 4"-6" listed on that map for MPV.  Not much coming out of the sky here in downtown and not much in the way of accumulation overnight either.

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2.7" as of 7am this morning.

 

Looks to me like there's another round coming in from the SW.  Might pick up another couple during the day today...

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Is it just me or has the town road crew just given up?  The area on the Peacham/ Danville Road from Ewell Pond to the Danville line has been just awful for days.

I read something on facebook about the peacham roadcrew having a big fight or something, so you are correct i think. Also, is there a salt/sand ban right by Ewell Pond because that is the slipperiest stretch of road in the NEK!

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Coming down hard at Bolton. They are cleaning up here! An awesome day to be on the slopes!

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Coming down hard at Bolton. They are cleaning up here! An awesome day to be on the slopes!

Yeah the skiing is phenomenal right now. It's been nuking since like 9:30am up here. We had 4" at 10am when I checked the board...I'll do another check at 2pm before I leave.

Under 1/4sm vis right now at the base as I can't see the other end of the gondola that goes across RT 108.

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Yeah I am sure they are probably up to at least 6 here as a conservative estimate but now it is adding up quick

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what's the best (free) site for current snow depth? I used to use the one below, but they're not using it anymore. The erh/noaa one, while more accurate just doesn't have good color separation.

 

post-2152-0-86452900-1422637845_thumb.jp

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Yeah I am sure they are probably up to at least 6 here as a conservative estimate but now it is adding up quick

Yeah the west slope will definitely pick up a couple more inches than the east side in totals with this one...it's a very blocked event so I've been surprised it's snowing as hard as it is here. Bet it drops off quickly heading into town for me.

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I read something on facebook about the peacham roadcrew having a big fight or something, so you are correct i think. Also, is there a salt/sand ban right by Ewell Pond because that is the slipperiest stretch of road in the NEK!

I hadn't heard about a fight but I am not on Facebook.  I don't know about a salt ban but that stretch is awful.  I went into a guardrail last year right there.  I was only doing 10 mph so there was no harm but especially on the southbound side of the road it is awful.

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what's the best (free) site for current snow depth? I used to use the one below, but they're not using it anymore. The erh/noaa one, while more accurate just doesn't have good color separation.

http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow 

 

That page still looks the same just in a different location with some other maps available as well.

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I missed out on getting heavy snow shots because I was skiing but it looks like about 6 inches here. Definitely an overperformer.

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I took this with my broken phone camera at Bolton and did some tweaking to give it a painterly feel. Vis was down to 1/8 mile at times when I took this due to heavy snow.

1150122_10102420847074969_54640992113086

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As of 3pm there was 6" at 1,500ft and it was still snowing steadily.  Snow depth was 25", which is good news for skiers.  Having a two foot or greater depth at the base of the mountain means all the off-piste skiing is in play, straight to the road.

 

Jan30_zpscacd2cc1.jpg

 

Jan30b_zps2eb72e8f.jpg

 

Definitely had some good periods of snow today.  Crappy cell phone pic.  But great snowy atmosphere out there today.

 

jan30c_zps370ca2ef.jpg

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What I was noticing today was just how nice it is to have a good snowpack at the end of January.  Average is good.  After the last few years of rough Januaries, its nice to have business as usual winter in VT.

 

On the mountain flanks, the snow depth is at the "explore freely" level...its got some substance to it but is nice and fluffy on top.

 

IMG_7546_edited-2_zps7aff2e13.jpg

 

IMG_7550_edited-2_zpse3ee18b0.jpg

 

IMG_7549_edited-2_zps19678eb7.jpg

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Nice shots for sure and it was great out there today until the wind really hit in the later afternoon. That is the downside of Bolton facing west. Apparently they are now reporting 9-11 inches out of this up there. In the CPV we had warning criteria met in a few spots.

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Nice log shot PF,  it caught my attention too today...

 

DSCN0408.jpg

 

winds really started going around 2 up here, left the car for a tour at 22F, got back to 4F and it was snowing to beat the band.  Refills all afternoon with the winds and 4-6", won't be surprised if it goes over 10", still getting some here in the valley.  Only 4" but no complaints, easy removal, easy rink clearing, easy xc trail setting.  Great week of skiing and winter.  Nice to see the VAST groomer every morning, and lots of lights up and down the hill from the snomos, full on winter.

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Event totals: 4.3” Snow/0.23" L.E.

 

There was 2.7" of additional snow through 5:00 P.M. today, again quite consistent with the 2-4" in the BTV NWS forecast.

 

Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 22.5

Snow Density: 4.4% H2O

Temperature: 14.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 13.5"

 

Updated advisory and accumulations maps are below; fairly similar to the last iteration although the Winter Weather Advisory is just up in the northern half of Vermont.

 

30JAN15C.jpg

 

30JAN15D.jpg

 


I've added the north to south listing of storm totals for the Vermont ski areas as of this evening for those resorts that updated totals; some areas in the north have received a foot of new snow:

 

Jay Peak: 8”

Smuggler’s Notch: 12”

Stowe: 8”

Bolton Valley: 11”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 7”

Middlebury: 2”

Pico: 5.5”

Killington: 5.5”

Bromley: 8”

Stratton: 5”

Mount Snow: 6”

 

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This is why clippers are our bread and butter at the ski resorts... 7-10" on the east side, probably 10-16" on the west side due to really blocked flow.  Regardless of Froude numbers, these always produce along the Spine...then you just figure out how blocked the flow is to see where the jackpot is going to be.

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Now let's play a game called wind chill...

At 3,600ft I'm seeing -20.4F ambient and we have 40mph winds, so the old wind chill is -84F, and the new wind chill calculations are -57F.

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Event totals: 4.6” Snow/0.25" L.E.

 

There was a final 0.3" of snow from this event overnight; the flakes had definitely transitioned toward those small, arctic type crystals vs. the larger ones earlier in the storm.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: -4.7 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 13.0"

 

An accumulations map from the BTV NWS shows how the western slopes were favored in this storm due to lower Froude Numbers:

 

31JAN15A.jpg

 

I saw a dramatic representation of the effect yesterday when I got to my car at the Waterbury Park and Ride near the center of town and found just a dusting of snow on it, whereas roughly three miles to the west near the spine of the Greens, there was 4-5" of snow in our driveway.

 

With this event complete, the north to south listing of storm totals from the Vermont ski areas is listed below; accumulations passed a foot at some of the west slope resorts in Northern Vermont such as Bolton Valley and Smuggler’s Notch:

 

Jay Peak: 11”

Burke: 11”

Smuggler’s Notch: 14”

Stowe: 10”

Bolton Valley: 14”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 8”

Middlebury: 9”

Pico: 8.5”

Killington: 8.5”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 9”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 7”

 

It looks like tonight is our next opportunity for snow per the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.  THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT.

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